Concern about low k-value

Discussion in 'TCG News & Gossip Discussion' started by SlimeyGrimey, Sep 15, 2007.

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  1. SlimeyGrimey

    SlimeyGrimey New Member

    What has occurred to me recently is that with such low k-value players will remain close in ratings to their opponents, so winning continuosly will keep winning you about the same amount of points. This of course results in a distinct advantage for those players who have more battle roads available to them (more so than was already present).

    In previous years one player might go to 3x the events that another player does, and if they both win at about the same right, the player who's attending more events will start gaining significantly fewer points because of the high k-value, allowing the player attending fewer events to catch up. Their ratings likely won't be equal but it looks to me that they would be a lot closer in ratings last year than this year. This year it looks to me more like the player who goes to 3x the events will be rated almost 3x higher than the other player.

    I could be wrong and it could work like it has previous years, but this does look like a potential problem to me.
     
  2. yoshi1001

    yoshi1001 New Member

    You misunderstand. The "problem" (in terms of percentiles, not actual numbers) is roughly the same regardless of the k-rating. remember, that the number of points gained or lost is a percentage of the k-value based on the win expectancy and the outcome. Yes, the smaller k-value means that players will spend more time close together, but the the number of extra points gained by ratings closeness is generally countered by the smaller k-value.
     
  3. bugsbite

    bugsbite New Member

    TBH I think there should be a limit to the number of Battle Roads for each player, therefore the whole system is flawed no matter what the k-value is. It seems like the people with the most resources and time to get to the events have a tremendous advantage of getting a high ranking.
     
  4. the_sniper

    the_sniper New Member

    States, regionals and nations should decide who goes to worlds. Their K-value should reflect that.

    The low k-value in battle roads/ maybe cities will make the atmosphere a lot more pleasant and less cut-throat than it was last year. I'm looking forward to br's.

    Bugsbite, you wouldn't feel the way you do if you traveled like most of my state does. And obv. people with the most resources have an advantage. Where in the world isn't this the case?

    john
     
  5. Prime

    Prime Content Developer<br>Blog Admin<br>Contest Host

    Why even have a k-value for battle roads and cities?
     
  6. the_sniper

    the_sniper New Member

    Maybe as an incentive for players to attend. Because it is part of the tournament structure.

    I know your not even considering getting an invite prime
    via rankings, but most of us here are.
     
  7. Ky00ber the III

    Ky00ber the III New Member

    'Coz if there were no K-value then Singapore will only have K-value for Nats @_@

    lol

    Continue on your discussion.
     
  8. Prime

    Prime Content Developer<br>Blog Admin<br>Contest Host

    the_sniper,: if I had the money, I'd be traveling around too. But you are right. Since I don't, I don't have any plans to try to get an invite through ratings.

    ---------------------------------
    From the way I see the tournament structure (From top being the highest, most difficult tournament to lowest being the most laid back tournament):

    World Championship: The King of tournaments. The mack daddy. The best players from around the World come together to see who is the best and which country remains supreme. You will not see beginner players at this tournament since you have to win an invite to Worlds to participate. Every round will be hard and even the best players will go 0-3 and drop. Hopefully everyone feels honored enough that they are participating in this event though. <- my own comment.

    National Championships: The Queen of tournaments. For many players, this is the big dog in the court. Players are tested against all the players in their nation. You will see the best players and every round will test you. Beginners will have a very hard time at this tournament and should probably play in lower tournaments before trying a National Championship first. Scholarships, and trips to the World Championships are on the line.

    Regional Championships: Even bigger than states, as this encompasses an entire region and there are only 12-13 of these. Players from multiple states will show up and compete for really nice prizes, including a money reward for Nationals and scholarships. The second biggest tournament in a country (unless your the US and have Worlds in your country every year).

    State Championships: Much bigger than cities. Competition and seriousness have doubled if not tripled. All the best players from the state compete for the title of State Champion. Beginner players will have trouble at a State Championship.

    City Championships: Bigger than Battle Roads and a little more serious. A title is on the line now, and city championships a more competitive because of it. Prizes are bigger, but still not as much as higher tournaments. Newer players can play in cities decent enough since cities are as big as higher tournaments so there will be less competition. But the tournament will be harder on average than Battle Roads and nothing like Pre-Releases.

    Battle Roads: More serious than Pre-Releases, but really for the beginner players to play in a smaller tournament. Battle Roads are the first chance for new players to play in a less-relaxed environment. Very little prizes, and mostly there just as a little chance to try out ideas before the bigger tournaments happen.

    Pre-Releases: Players start here, and get to play in fun events that aren't supposed to be really competitive. A very laid back tournament that promotes new ideas and having lots of fun.
    -------------------------------------

    So honestly, Battle Roads and City Championships are still low events where there will be many new players participating in them. I might could understand City Championships have a K-Value, but I really don't understand Battle Roads having a K-Value. Most new players will start out with Battle Roads and many Battle Road victories won't be worth much because of the lack of competition at them.
     
  9. doctormcdreamy

    doctormcdreamy New Member

    why is there a k value for battle roads and cities? wow...

    i'm still for the philosophy of consistency. a high k value for regionals and nationals is correct. but battle roads and cities should be given a respectable k value. someone can have an offday and that can happen in a regional or a national. we all know that there were lots of incredible players that got bottlenecked out of nationals. through no fault of their own.

    the game does depend on a lot of luck. so if you have this one offday at a big tournament. you shouldnt be penalized too strongly for it.

    if a player is good at the game, over a good amount of tournaments, they will be able to demonstrate it by winning. battle roads would draw more people if there were more rewards into playing them. i guarantee you if there were better prizes and incentives, there would be a greater level of competition in the smaller battle roads.

    the whole point of BRs is to work on your premier rating. check the op site. that's what it says. you go to places like rockford and some of the bigger places in FL. and you see that a k value of 8 is insanely low.

    you judge how good someone is in poker not by how well they do in the main event in the world series of poker. you see how well they do over the course of the year. how many cashes they win. and how many final tables they can get into.

    even in academia, that's how it works. you are given 5 or so exams in one college course. and sometimes if you do well in them, you're not obligated to take the final. because you already demonstrated your prowess over the subject.

    this is just my opinion. consistency over a good amount of participation. and that includes battle roads.
    anyone can be lucky in one day. but to be consistently good over the entire year, that's someone that we should award a worlds invite to.

    just my two cents.
     
  10. Prime

    Prime Content Developer<br>Blog Admin<br>Contest Host

    As hard as some battle roads might be in Florida, think about how easy some might be in other areas. A k value of 8 might be insanely high for some areas.

    I agree with what you are saying doctormcdreamy, but I don't know how battle roads really show how good players can be. I can understand a K value at cities.

    What I see is a big hole in the whole rating system that requires battle roads be there to give people ways to raise their rating. If the rating system only gave out a few trips, and was treated more like a rewards system and less as a 2nd way to get a trip to worlds, then battle roads wouldn't need a k value.

    I can't speak for everyone, but I know I'd love a tournament I could go to and not have to worry about my K value going up or down where the main idea was just to see your friends and hang out. I don't have tournaments in my area, and I love to play the game just for the heck of it. I'd be willing to travel a little distance to go to a fun tournament (especially if they gave out rare promos for winning).

    JMHO
     
  11. NoPoke

    NoPoke New Member

    Yoshi, you have it completely wrong. The smaller the K value the more events are necessary before anything like the correct elo rating of players is established. The scaling parameter in the nonlinear logistic equation hasn't changed as far as I'm aware.

    I haven't seen what the K values for the other events will be so I'm not in a position to comment upon K=8 for Autumn battle roads, other than to repeat what I have stated elesewhere: that from a dynamics point of view low K values early season are not the quickest way to establish provisional ratings.

    There isn't any way POP can please everyone on this. I thought that last years K values were reasonable and look at the complaining that we saw on the Pokegym :(

    Low-K makes the tournaments much more fun. (which is a good thing)
    Low-K addreses some of the sour grapes posts from last season.
    High-K is needed early season for the elo system to operate in a short timescale.

    From a dynamics point of view The K values last season for Cities should have been higher! But who understands dynamics anyway. *shrug* .

    Autumn Battle Roads should be seen as fun tournaments that will have negligable impact on deciding who goes to worlds. So get out there and just enjoy them.
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2007
  12. Flaming_Spinach

    Flaming_Spinach Feature Editor

    If ELO is used to give out Ranking Invites to Worlds, it is extremely important that people have enough time to build up a rating which is truely indicative of their skill.

    A system where the K-values are too low (ie. 8), will result in the winners being determined by who attends the most events.

    A system where the K-values are too high (ie. 64) will result in the winners being determined by whoever had the best streak of luck around the middle of the season.



    So what are you going to do?



    Restrict the number of events people can play in?

    No. This only gives an advantage to those who play in the most events. For example, if you limit people to only States and higher, the good players who have 3 States and 2 Regionals will ALWAYS beat the good players who have 2 States and 1 Regional.



    Deal away with Rating Invite altogether?

    No. Then you put everything on the line at Gyms or Nationals, where true skill is just as important to winning as sheer dumb luck.



    The rating system needs to be fixed. But I am of the mind that it needs to be completely overhauled, not just tweaked in a place or two. And with the season 7 days away, I can not see this happening now.
     
  13. I personally thought that with the higher K values it was more intense...

    But hey what do I care =p
     
  14. NoPoke

    NoPoke New Member

    F_S: for the most part you seem to have a good understanding of how the math and dynamics works out, but the picture painted is a bit too bleak IMHO. Take this statement as an example.

    It is undoubtedly true, yet makes no mention that we haven't seen all the K values yet. It is thus false to imply that this year whoever attends the most events has a significant advantage. Your conclusion is only valid if all the K values are low, something that we don't believe to be the case.

    [Its likely that I've made overly bleak assessments and predictions too: I'm no angel in this just human]

    SlimeyGrimey's opening thread is essentially correct: linear is bad in a system where players determine the number of events that they attend. But he too misses that we haven't seen all the pieces of the jigsaw yet. It is still too early to say what the picture actually is.

    Anyone who agrees with
    ought to be okay with K=8 for BR.
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2007
  15. Rainbowgym

    Rainbowgym Active Member

    Agreed on that, we should have more information about the complete season, nice to have the tournament rules updated, but most people are waiting on K-values/Invite structure/tournament series.

    You can't compare anything at this moment.
    K=8 is low?? why? Compared to WHAT?
     
  16. Lawman

    Lawman Active Member

    Doc: You obv. haven't been to law school, where you get ONE exam for your grade at the end of the term! So, yes, one test determines all. Same with the Bar Exam. 2 day test...you either pass or fail. (Kinda like Nats...you know :wink: )

    The BRs are supposed to be a more relaxed tourney to try out ideas/new deck mechanics. Who wants to bomb in a "big" tourney and lose a ton of points?? These are meant to allow the riskier decks a chance to shine or flop like a magicarp.

    Keith
     
  17. ryanvergel

    ryanvergel New Member

    =*(
     
  18. DragonairMaster8

    DragonairMaster8 New Member

    fixed
     
  19. doctormcdreamy

    doctormcdreamy New Member

    yeah. i havent been to law school. or in some schools overseas. where that is how examinations work. i have heard that is how they do it. i just used an example that might be familiar to everyone else here.

    my studies is more on science, not law. and that's my kind of thinking. when creating experiments, we have to isolate our independent and dependent variables but we test along a big sample size, so there is a great degree of certainty in our results.
     
  20. GinoLombardi21

    GinoLombardi21 New Member

    Idc how many events someone can attend. Doesnt mean he has a better chance. Well if ur a flunkie and you go to 5 battle roads and you win 5 games and lose 7 games from all 5 BRS compared to a person who attends two BRS and just goes 8-0.

    So thats false how someone can attend more events and this and that. Only way that works is if you win. I like wat pokemons doing for the world championships. Ima compare that to the nfl superbowl. Its the hardest thing to accheive. You gotta be crisp and on your A-game all year! Its gonna be so hard to get to worlds from now on. If you can get there about 2/3 times in the next five years then madd props kidd.
     
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