Masters T50 vs Spring Battle Roads

Discussion in 'Battle Roads' started by JandPDS, Apr 20, 2008.

  1. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    **Updated with last Regionals Tourney Uploads ** 4/22

    Last year at this time there was a great debate on the gym of what was the superior strategy for a player in Worlds invite territory with POP Rank following Regionals. Some said it was better to skip playing in Battle Roads so as to not risk loosing points in such small events. Others said playing was the smart move as it would be a mistake to sit around and risk other players passing you up. So last year I tracked the Top 50 players to see week to week in Battle Roads which strategy paid off. It turned out that unless you were already in the Top 5, it did matter if you played or not. The majority of players who participated in Battle roads improved on their ability to play in worlds, while those who sat them out ended up ranked lower at the end of the events.

    Of course that was true last year, this year could be different, so again I will track and update the weekly Top 50 Masters players throughout the Battle Road season and see who gains and looses invites through the changed metagame following the new release of Majestic Dawn.


    Rank Name Rating Age Div State Country
    1 Paul Johnston 1992.56 MA WA US
    2 Matthew L 1907.38 MA LA US
    3 Emmanuel Divens 1905.37 MA MN US
    4 Colin M 1895.03 MA MO US
    5 Pablo Meza 1891.83 MA DF MX
    5 Adam Garcia 1891.83 MA TX US
    7 Ian Brander 1890.04 MA CO US
    8 Con L 1887.93 MA MA US
    9 kyle sabelhaus 1879.46 MA SC US
    10 Erik Nance 1874.34 MA NC US
    11 Tyler Ninomura 1874.30 MA WA US
    12 Not Opted Into Rankings 1871.10 MA OR US
    13 Breton Brander 1870.61 MA CO US
    14 Jay Hornung 1868.38 MA IA US
    15 Ulises Santamaría 1867.41 MA DF MX
    16 Austin Reed 1863.78 MA OH US
    17 Jason Klaczynski 1862.62 MA IL US
    18 Darrell Moreno 1862.23 MA NY US
    19 Alex Hill 1860.42 MA FL US
    20 Josue Palomino 1860.25 MA MX MX
    21 Alex Frezza 1858.58 MA MA US
    22 Dustin Zimmerman 1857.84 MA IN US
    23 Stephen Silvestro 1856.42 MA FL US
    24 Ian Ryave 1853.83 MA PA US
    25 Andrew Cox 1850.72 MA MA US
    26 Gino Rotondo 1846.05 MA RI US
    27 Aaron J. Schumacher 1845.75 MA OH US
    28 Andrew Mondak 1841.66 MA OH US
    29 Roy (Jr) Roberson 1841.28 MA OK US
    30 Spencer Nalle 1840.07 MA VA US
    31 Bobby Malec 1838.22 MA FL US
    32 John Kettler 1837.47 MA TX US
    33 Michael Perucca 1837.30 MA CO US
    34 Frank Diaz 1834.72 MA NJ US
    35 Dana Lynch 1834.64 MA TX US
    36 Jordan Hill 1832.24 MA NC US
    37 Chad Harris 1825.35 MA CA US
    38 Drew Guritzky 1823.46 MA NJ US
    39 Eric Craig 1823.35 MA FL US
    40 Francisco Avila 1821.13 MA MX MX
    41 Miguel Angel Lopez Bernal 1821.11 MA DF MX
    42 Matthew Koo 1817.96 MA ON CA
    43 Randy Abrahamson 1815.34 MA WA US
    44 Daniel Rattray 1812.68 MA WA US
    45 David Nájera 1808.73 MA DF MX
    46 Matt Alvis 1806.57 MA IL US
    47 Nick Caporelli 1806.45 MA MA US
    48 Will Berry 1805.95 MA OK US
    49 Scott Faust 1805.71 MA IN US
    50 Marvin Quaschnick 1805.52 MA OR US
    51 Josh Bangle 1804.12 MA NV US
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2008
  2. mattalvis

    mattalvis New Member

    If you are a good player you should always play because you can assume you will always gain points, whether or not they will matter or not. Chances are for most people they will not matter, as they are so small compared to Nationals, which is where most people will determine whether or not they qualify.
     
  3. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    Yes, but if you remember last year the "good" players (people in the top 10 of POP rank after battle roads) either sat out of Nationals or dropped soon after it started. Most (not all) invites via ranking last year were established after Battle Roads, and a few notable exceptions aside, Nationals did not influence who went to worlds via POP score all that much.
     
  4. ARMondak

    ARMondak New Member

    The Indiana regional still hasn't been uploaded yet, so that'll change the ratings you have now a bit.
     
  5. TheDarkTwins

    TheDarkTwins Active Member

    Well, I think this is a kind of a non-factor is some ways. Last year BRs were worth a K-32. I was in the T100 or very close going into the final weekend of Battle Roads. I went 12-1 winning 2 BRs on the final weekend launching me into T20. I followed that up by going 6-3 and losing my final 2 games at Nationals to miss a chance at an invite. However, I did Grind in at Worlds going 7-1. So, while the K-Value does influence who might make it, it also can have the affect of players who are decent who for various reasons might not of. You can see this year I actually will be starting this year in the T50, where last year I was nowhere to be seen. I think this is a good idea, but I think that if your in the T50 and you dont go atleast 4-1 at BRs your going to be going down, unless you play players that are close to your rating and you win those games.

    JMO,
    Drew
     
  6. rerisenphoenix

    rerisenphoenix New Member

    For right now anyway, I missed this list by 1 spot!
     
  7. DL24

    DL24 New Member

    This is an interesting topic which was popular last year. Personally, I would probably play 2 ensure my chances.
     
  8. Papi/Manny

    Papi/Manny New Member

    Luck played a huge role in BRs last year (if I didn't play in them I get an invite to worlds). Of course, we play this game for fun and to actually play, not sit around. So I dont' see why you would skip them. They're only 8k this year anyways, so its nearly impossible to lose points.
     
  9. Jason

    Jason New Member

    May I ask, that is the IN Regionals got uploaded? :)
     
  10. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    Thanks for the info I figured that a week after the fact was long enough for all Regionals to be uploaded, but I guess I was mistaken. I will check regularly to see if the list changes, (for the record currently I have missed the list by 36 spots ;) and I will have the list updated it when the final Tourney gets uploaded.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2008
  11. Cyrus

    Cyrus Iron Chef - Master Emeritus

    Even with a K value of 8, Battle Roads are still important to earning an invite this season. It could put more or less Nationals pressure on you, as the difference between an 8-1 swiss and a 7-2 swiss is enormous.
     
  12. swanton1717

    swanton1717 New Member

    Maybe I'm understanding this wrong..but I see no point to play in BR's when one is so highly ranked and there are no people within 100 points in their area...like me.

    When someone at 1890 plays someone at 1890 and wins an 8 k match, they get 4 points. If they win against someone at 1870 they get 3, if they win against someone at 1850 they get 2 and at 1830 you get 1..and then 0 after that if I am correct. And if you lose to anyone under that, thats 8 points gone and the whole tournament is definitely a waste of time.

    If there is no one at 1830 in your area why try to play in BR's? Prize support? lol
     
  13. old man

    old man New Member

    Actually if you are at 1890 & win against anyone 1802 or higher you'll get 2 points. At 1801 it goes to 1 point for a win. It's not until you play the player who is rated 1551 & less that you'll get 0 points for a win.
    Now I'm sure there's players in your area with a 1551 & higher rating.
     
  14. swanton1717

    swanton1717 New Member

    My mistake, thanks for correcting it =) Thats still not much better thou lol.
     
  15. Lawman

    Lawman Active Member

    The only way to get zero points for a W is to play someone outside of your age group. If you win, you gain something. It may be very small, but the "odds" said you should win anyway.

    Keith
     
  16. TheDarkTwins

    TheDarkTwins Active Member

    I might laugh/cry if I won a game and only gained like 00.15 or something stupid like that. :nonono:

    That also makes it really funny, because POP lowered the K-Value because we asked them to consider it because players didnt feel that the Battle Roads should influence the ratings so much at the end of the year. Seems like the K-Value is too low for the 2nd set of Battle Roads. It has the exact same effect. If you give out too little "Stake" players don't go because for someone that is anywhere in the 1800 going 4-1 might land you going down instead of up. Where as more "Stake" means more players won't go because they dont want to lose the high rating they have already accumulated making virtually the same as having a low "Stake". We need some type of Median where it wont hurt too much to go, but will benefit the better players to actually attend the events.

    JMO,
    Drew
     
  17. Cyrus

    Cyrus Iron Chef - Master Emeritus

    Uhhh first off Colin, I don't think you quote en quote "need" to play in BR's, lol. Wouldn't hurt to stack on some extra points, because then you could go the entirety of Nats with an assured invite. This is not the year to drop, though, because the stakes are too high.

    Also on point gain, Lawman hit the nail on the head: your gains may be minimal, but they're still GAINS.
     
  18. NoPoke

    NoPoke New Member

    elo delta of +88.7 gets a three point transfer (not two as stated by old_man)

    So when an 1890 defeats an 1801 the 1890 will go up to 1893.

    =============================

    Stake = K/[1+10^(elo_delta/400)]

    where elo_delta = winners_elo-loosers_elo
     
  19. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    T50 Updated 4/22

    T50 Is now updated!!
     
  20. TheDarkTwins

    TheDarkTwins Active Member


    So hypothetically, if I am about 1825, and I go 4-1 in a battle road, playing players with an avg rating of 1625 will I go up or down? If down, what is the lowest avg rating of players I can play going 4-1 that I would actually go up with a 1825 rating going into the tournament?

    JW,
    Drew
     

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