Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

National's Coin Manipulation Issue

Qwachansey said:
Chansey coins are proven to flip heads more often ;)
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Is that a wink at the end? I agree with you that it has been statistically proven by anecdote that Chancey coins come up heads 120% of the time. ;)


[anecdote: the highest form of proof on nearly all internet forums]
[statistically: a usually meaningless word added for emphasis]
 
No its real, on the back of the JPN chansey coins there are parts of the edges missing. That will make them land on heads more.
 
proven is claimed... show me how this was proven.
more is claimed.. how much more I'd ask.

Lets suppose that you want to test the hypothesis that a coin flip is fair. You carry out a number of trials and get a proportion of heads that differs from the expect value of 50%. Now as claiming a coin flip is unfair comes with a whole load of accusatory baggage you want to have some confidence in your declaration. Lets go for 99.9%. which corresponds to a result three standard deviations away from the mean of a normal distribution.

you need approx 900 trials at a 55% heads outcome before you can say that a coin might not be fair at 99.9% confidence. (which means you get it wrong 1 in 1000 times you are presented with the data)

216 flips if you observe 60% heads

It gets tricky with small samples as we tend to adjust the test as we go along which complicates the conclusion. observer bias gets in the way. I flip a coin and get HHHHHHHHT biased or fair?

-----

I have an Arcanine coin with the same Japanese back as the Chansey coin. Assuming that they have the same "problem" I tried to balance the Arcanine coin on a horizontal glass tabletop. It balances even on the cut out. Which is prima face evidence that the Arcanine coin is not biased in favour of heads. Pretty sure it was released before EX Ruby & Sapphire so its not a coin I can use without my opponent's approval.
 
Oh, it is getting so thick in here.

You really think there is no reason the Chansey coin in question sells for quite a premium?

I don't know anyone who has done a full statistical analysis on this, but to simply claim that there is no way it can be true because it hasn't been proven is just the same as saying it can't be false because it hasn't been proven. Done responding.

Let this poor thing go away so we can get back to our regularly scheduled Pokemon games.

Let this go.

Vince
 
Box of Fail said:
I mean, if my opponent's coin is flipped slightly below shoulder height, shouldn't I be able to shoo off a judge demanding a reflip? Or is this another thing about how the right to decide belongs to the judges, not us etc etc etc?

I can understand a judge's wanting to have the final say, but idk I feel like if I'm the victim of a failure to observe the rules, I should be able to let it slide.
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As I understand it, a judge may require your opponent to reflip a coin that hasn't met the flip requirements. However, I seriously doubt they will stop while passing by your table and demand that a coin be flipped again because it was flipped improperly... ;)
 
Snake Oil Vince, nowhere have I said it can't be done as you can not prove a negative. But a lot of accusation is based upon allegation that it not only can be done but has been done. It is reasonable to ask for evidence.

As to the reason for the premium price on the Chansey coin? A combination of rarity and misinformed belief in how its physical properties will affect outcome. Neither of which is evidence let alone proof.
 
One problem with a statistical analysis is that it tries to evaluate the outcomes out of context. Not all flips are equally important. A more valid analysis method (though not as practical) would be to actually observe the behavior of the player and use that to determine the motive.
 
wilhung53 said:
Why not stop printing cards that require coin flips? Think about Magic: the Gathering. They are still the most successful trading card game today. Cut down on the luck factor. It's not that hard.
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You're right. Maybe Pokemon should go the way Magic did with cards like Falling Star and Chaos Orb. :lol:

And I haven't read through this thread as much as I probably should have, but it looks like I should quote one of my own posts from a while back. It seems quite relevent here.

Skitty said:
Back in the day I got a plastic Pokemon coin from a Japanesae starter deck and decided to practice with it. After about 2 hours I was able to "rig" it nearly every time. I decided to really test it and flipped it over and over going back and forth from heads to tails. And I was actually doing good flips, not just small ones. I had the coin going up about a foot in the air and spinning about 5 times before it landed.
Long story short, I ended up getting my first wrong one the 155th flip. So yes, I "called it" correct 154 times in a row with an official plastic Pokemon coin. Whether you beleave it or not, it happened to me. And after a few more hours of trying I could probably do it again. But I actually beleave in the spirit of the game so of coarse I would never do it in a real game.
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So the whole theory of "just flip it higher and have it spin x times" won't work. It'll just take more practice to adjust. I already proved that one foot high and 5 flips isn't enough if you want it to be fair so how many would everyone like to go up to? 5 feet and 20 flips? Not that might be hard to do.
 
Skitty, will you be at worlds? I'd certainly like to see you demonstrate your mad flip skills.
 
NoPoke said:
Skitty, will you be at worlds? I'd certainly like to see you demonstrate your mad flip skills.
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I will be. But I haven't practiced coin flips since the times of Neo. If I have time in the next week I'll see if I can fit in some practice time to show off at Worlds (but not in actual games of course).

EDIT: Sadly I didn't have time to practice it this week. Maybe I'll just make a video of it some day?
 
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I am not going to lie i used a coin for all or the majority of my flips in nationals and i did get good results with the coin. I didnt know how to flip or rig the coin and i would flip from my shoulder and i had good results with this and when i got to thinking something my be up with my coin i had a judge come over and flip it for me and tell me if i needed to switch or not he flipped it about 6 or 8 times and got an even 50 or so percent with it (maybe 4 to 4 of 3 to 5) but he told me it was ok to use the coin. I do not think anyone should be told to use a different randomizer just because someone is getting lucky. If the coin does the required things to be legit i do not think it would be fair to have that person called out and forced to flip or roll again. This is why i think this thread is pointless because no matter how you look at it if a coin flip meets the requirments I do not know how you can prove your oppennent is cheating.
 
I have seen people manipulate coin flips before. One of the best one I have seen and caught was a kid took and scratch some of the paint off one of the Pokemon Plastic coins now ever time he flips the coin with head facing down it lands heads 9 out of 10 times. I always ask my oppoent if they would be ok with us using a Die or a Qurter but If they want to use a Pokemon coin I always ask to see it first if I see any scratches on it I ask that it not be used.

There are some technics that we can not out law I have studied to see if any one playing me is using.

Like puting a little extra force on the flip. things like this can not be stopped because the person might be puting to much force in the flip or they might lightly flip it either way if it flips 3 times in the air its then counted as valid.

Die's roll are nother story I have seen a lot of Manipulation with them in the past not just in Pokemon but other card game also.
 
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