Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 31

Thread: Championship Point Cut-Off Speculation

  1. #1
    smacktack15's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Barrie, Ontario (CANADA)
    Posts
    2,922
    Images
    2

    Championship Point Cut-Off Speculation

    I have no clue if this is the right place to post this or not but, the title says it all, what is the cut-off for Worlds at 40th place? I am at 41st right now @ 40 CP but, there are multiple players who have not had points uploaded yet (specifically Quebec Provincials), and I am unsure if my previous thoughts of getting Qualified for Worlds @ mid 40s are still correct. Is 50 basically the hump you need to get over to be qualified in NA Masters? Any thoughts on this subject would be great. Thank you.
    Zach Lesage (Masters) - Ontario, Canada
    Michigan State Champ '12, Ontario Provincial Finalist '12
    Top 4 Eastern Canadian Regionals '12, 4th Canadian Nationals '12
    [Team Saginaw] 10th in North America
    58 CP

  2. #2
    it's all speculation man

    the original guesses ppl threw out early season were waaay off. I think the cutoff will be the low 50s, possibly 55 when all is said and done, as there is still alot of points at nats

    honestly I don't even feel totally safe with my 51 right now due to the (ridiculously stupid) no pass-down announcement, as the nats top 2 from each country will probably nullify 6 spots essentially making it a T34
    Lafonte | Team R | Team Sexy
    Kazmir/Upton/Longoria/Crawford/Shields '08! DEVIL RAYS!

    Articjedi144 (10:08:01 PM): it's so hard

  3. #3
    You can probably tally up how many points you can get from the events left over before Nats and figure out where you will be at the end of these events and pray, I suppose.
    Phaded.
    cards, trades, that sort of thing:
    http://pokegym.net/forums/showthread.php?t=158362

  4. #4
    Forum Moderator sdrawkcab's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    St. Albert, Alberta, Canada
    Posts
    5,072
    Images
    5
    Dont forget there are probably some people who have maxed out the amount points they could earn from BR's already.
    ~Mike~

  5. #5
    You need ALL the Championship Points!
    Season Record: 32-12
    Championship Points: 180

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by desert eagle View Post
    it's all speculation man

    the original guesses ppl threw out early season were waaay off. I think the cutoff will be the low 50s, possibly 55 when all is said and done, as there is still alot of points at nats

    honestly I don't even feel totally safe with my 51 right now due to the (ridiculously stupid) no pass-down announcement, as the nats top 2 from each country will probably nullify 6 spots essentially making it a T34
    I actually pretty much disagree with this whole post. I speculate around 45 being the cutoff(probably 43-45) simply because there arent enough points to be GAINED at nats, and the people who do get there usually were in the top 40 before they got there. i speculate atleast 5-7 people in the top 16 of u.s nats not getting an invite because they werent in the top 40 before nats. Its also very possible people who dont have many CP's do well and get an invite.
    D-FEET

    Quote Originally Posted by Croatian_Nidoking View Post
    Thank Arceus

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by BlisseyRocks View Post
    I actually pretty much disagree with this whole post. I speculate around 45 being the cutoff(probably 43-45) simply because there arent enough points to be GAINED at nats, and the people who do get there usually were in the top 40 before they got there. i speculate atleast 5-7 people in the top 16 of u.s nats not getting an invite because they werent in the top 40 before nats. Its also very possible people who dont have many CP's do well and get an invite.
    People in the mid 40s shouldnt feel safe at all, there is a TON of people in the 30-40 point range who would kick out people in the top 40 simply by having a good day at nats (and remember Canada and Mexico get the huge point boosts too). I wouldn't be surprised if only like 25 people got ratings invites due to the no-pass down rule.

    I really don't understand why there's no pass downs, alot of the top 40 is gonna be people who had pretty bad seasons but had a good day at nats (and who are going to get their nats invite regardless), knocking out players who had been consistent all season but had one bad day at nats

    I mean it probably won't affect me as I'm up there in points but for anyone with 40-45 points your season comes down to one event, which is VERY unfair considering having 40-45 points at this point in the season shows consistency and skill - the two traits that SHOULD be rewarded, not luck.
    Lafonte | Team R | Team Sexy
    Kazmir/Upton/Longoria/Crawford/Shields '08! DEVIL RAYS!

    Articjedi144 (10:08:01 PM): it's so hard

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by desert eagle View Post
    I really don't understand why there's no pass downs, alot of the top 40 is gonna be people who had pretty bad seasons but had a good day at nats (and who are going to get their nats invite regardless), knocking out players who had been consistent all season but had one bad day at nats
    Keep in mind that it used to be Top 25 with pass downs, so it's pretty similar to Top 40 without pass downs. Whether more people should be allowed to play in worlds is a different story.

    In terms of the number of points required for top 40, we're at 42 CPs for 40th place right now. I expect this number to go up to around 45 by the time Battle Roads are over, and it should be about 50 after Nats are done.
    If at first you don't succeed, then skydiving certainly isn't for you.

  9. #9
    Relatively speaking, the threshold isn't going to go up much at all after Nats, especially when you factor in how nobody starts getting points until top 64. This may not mean much to Canadians, but for Americans, this is a big deal, since less than 10% of the field will have any significant ranking change at all.

    For the cutoff to actually rise to 50, something extraordinary would have to happen, I agree that the threshold may go up a bit after Battle Roads, but a jump from 45 to 50 just isn't happening.
    Recent Tournament Placement:
    1st place, 2003 Sandstorm Prerelease (UNDEFEATED)
    18th place: Fall 2012 Tomball Battle Road (3-3)
    23rd place: 2007 Oklahoma State Championship (2-3)
    12th place: 2015 Oak Ridge North League Challenge (3-2 but really 3-1 'cause I was late)

  10. #10
    Agreed with Cyrus, people are being blinded by the huge jumps in very little time due to 4 weekends of high threshold tournaments.

    The jump from States to Regionals was I believe 39 - 42, based on 9 big events in USA/Canada/Mexico with high rewards in terms of points. I fail to see how tournaments awarding 2 points will raise the bar to 45, and how 3 events will raise it a whole 8 points when very few people will actually get points, and you can expect people at the top (Pooka/Ness/etc.) to get some as well.

    IMO 45-46 will be the limit.
    0436 0503 0719 0846 0927 1272

  11. #11
    ^
    i can only hope-
    I've been projecting 47 the entire season and i'll still stand by that, as for Nats i except the points to move 3 points, if that b/c a lot of the players who do well are already "there" and you can also assume that for about half of the people who earn points at Nats(top 64 or better) are "irrelevant" when it comes to determining who will get an invite. Although i will say this for USA players on the bubble- the entire season literally will come down to your top 128 game, which is dumb but that is what will happen.
    let the fun begin :)
    2011 Great Lakes Fall Regional Champion
    T8 2012 USA Nationals
    T64 2011 and 2013 USA Nationals

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by CFOURCOLTSFAN View Post
    Although i will say this for USA players on the bubble- the entire season literally will come down to your top 128 game, which is dumb but that is what will happen.
    let the fun begin :)
    I don't understand why it's "dumb" that some people's season will come down to top cut at Nationals. Let's assume that the cutoff is 47 championship points, as you say. The top 24 players right now in North America have 47 or more points, so they have already earned their invite. That's a high number of players who have clinched the invite before nationals. As Battle Roads roll around, I'd expect that about 26-29 players would have "clinched" their invite already.

    In most major sports, clinching the championships (or a playoff spot) comes down to the wire. It happens every year for many sports. For example, in MLB last year, 6 teams' playoff hopes came down to the last 2 games. In other grand prix competitions (like NASCAR), certain racers' seasons also come down to one last race.

    It's not uncommon for a player or team's whole season to come down to one tournament in sports. I don't see why Pokemon needs to be different.
    If at first you don't succeed, then skydiving certainly isn't for you.

  13. #13
    ^
    No I'm saying that it will come down to just top 128 b/c unlike EVERY other tournament they didn't give out kickers down to 1 point, literally you can make top cut at USA Nationals and get 0 points, win your top 128 game and you get 3, there is no logic behind that at all(or the fact that for almost every national you'll get CP if you come in the top 40-50 percent and at USA you need to come in the top 8 or 9 percent) that's what i meant.
    2011 Great Lakes Fall Regional Champion
    T8 2012 USA Nationals
    T64 2011 and 2013 USA Nationals

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by psychup2034 View Post
    I don't understand why it's "dumb" that some people's season will come down to top cut at Nationals. Let's assume that the cutoff is 47 championship points, as you say. The top 24 players right now in North America have 47 or more points, so they have already earned their invite. That's a high number of players who have clinched the invite before nationals. As Battle Roads roll around, I'd expect that about 26-29 players would have "clinched" their invite already.

    In most major sports, clinching the championships (or a playoff spot) comes down to the wire. It happens every year for many sports. For example, in MLB last year, 6 teams' playoff hopes came down to the last 2 games. In other grand prix competitions (like NASCAR), certain racers' seasons also come down to one last race.

    It's not uncommon for a player or team's whole season to come down to one tournament in sports. I don't see why Pokemon needs to be different.
    This just isn't true. The player in 25th place going into Nationals has never been passed. It is not a high number at all. Each year, the average number of places passed after Nationals is around 12.

    Regarding your other point, there are hundreds of players who have their invite come down to having to T8 Nationals.....
    Quote Originally Posted by yoyofsho16 View Post
    ...tech against water types. which will probably be near non-existant in DP-RR. This card is okay at best. The normal Luxray GL is just AWFUL. It has no good attacks, and the Lv X attack is pretty much all it has going for it. Sure, 60 damage is pretty good early game, especially for 1 energy, but late game it is pretty mediocre at best. 5/10.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Scizor View Post
    This just isn't true. The player in 25th place going into Nationals has never been passed. It is not a high number at all. Each year, the average number of places passed after Nationals is around 12.

    Regarding your other point, there are hundreds of players who have their invite come down to having to T8 Nationals.....
    New system, new rules.
    2008 North American Professor Cup Champion
    Minnesota Furious Fists Prereleases || FREE Furious Fists Win-A-Box
    Bullados YouTube Channel
    If you happen to know of a USB, clip-on microphone, please let me know. Thank you!

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Scizor View Post
    This just isn't true.
    You're talking ELO. I'm talking Championship Points. We stopped using ELO last year.
    If at first you don't succeed, then skydiving certainly isn't for you.

  17. #17
    how much do you thnk the cutoff for seniors will be? I am at 48 and I am going to nats and 6 BRs
    Jimmy pendarvis
    472 CP

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by the cheating bidoof View Post
    how much do you thnk the cutoff for seniors will be? I am at 48 and I am going to nats and 6 BRs
    Thinking 54, but that's just my guess.


    Posted with Mobile style...

  19. #19
    ELO is still used to break ties in Championship points...thats why we still track it
    Head Judge St louis Regionals 2007-2011), Masters Head Judge Nats 2011, Masters Head Judge Grinder San Diego 2009, 2011, World's Judge 2008-2011...And Taylor Mitchell"s Dad--she's done pretty good at this game]

  20. #20
    For any1 who's interested-
    my guesses @ cutoffs for all divisions in NA
    Jrs.-60(depends mainly on how many BF's they have leftover from Autumn BR's)
    Srs.-54
    Masters-49
    2011 Great Lakes Fall Regional Champion
    T8 2012 USA Nationals
    T64 2011 and 2013 USA Nationals

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by CFOURCOLTSFAN View Post
    For any1 who's interested-
    my guesses @ cutoffs for all divisions in NA
    Jrs.-60(depends mainly on how many BF's they have leftover from Autumn BR's)
    Srs.-54
    Masters-49
    I know only one junior got their BFL for BR's, but I know 40th had roughly 8 points heading into Reg. Agree with your estimates though.



    Posted with Mobile style...

  22. #22
    Gallery Administrator
    Forum Moderator
    DukeFireBird's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Overland Park
    Posts
    3,089
    Blog Entries
    1
    Images
    49
    Considering that there is still a maximum possible 36 CPs still to obtain (8 Battle Roads, and Nationals)
    NORTH AMERICA:
    MASTERS:
    Current 40th place is at 42 points.
    Current First is 58 points.
    at this point you need to have at least 6 CPs to even be in contention for 40th place

    SENIORS:
    Current 40th place is at 46 points.
    Current First is 67points.
    at this point you need to have at least 10 CPs to even be in contention for 40th place.

    JUNIORS:
    Current 40th place is at 50 points.
    Current First is 74 points.
    at this point you need to have at least 14 CPs to even be in contention for 40th place.

    As soon as Spring BRs are done, the cutoff should be more apparent
    Brony and proud of it! /)
    LL, TO, and seasoned judge
    Wants
    If you need any assistance with the Pokegym gallery, please send a PM and I will get in touch ASAP!
    Professor cup 2013 - Top 16

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeFireBird View Post
    Considering that there is still a maximum possible 36 CPs still to obtain (8 Battle Roads, and Nationals)
    NORTH AMERICA:
    MASTERS:
    Current 40th place is at 42 points.
    Current First is 58 points.
    at this point you need to have at least 6 CPs to even be in contention for 40th place

    SENIORS:
    Current 40th place is at 46 points.
    Current First is 67points.
    at this point you need to have at least 10 CPs to even be in contention for 40th place.

    JUNIORS:
    Current 40th place is at 50 points.
    Current First is 74 points.
    at this point you need to have at least 14 CPs to even be in contention for 40th place.

    As soon as Spring BRs are done, the cutoff should be more apparent
    It is worth noting that only one person will get that 36 points, and it's down from there...

  24. #24
    ^
    and also that he's assuming the curve won't move at all, and that you would just flat out win like every event, more realistic numbers for being in contention
    Jrs-44(almost every jr in top 40 will prolly max out BR wins so catching up is near impossible imo)
    Srs-38(again same as above, except in extremely competitive areas most in t40 will max out, catching up is tough)
    Masters-30(being generous on this, top40 after autumn was 4 pts so you can catch up quickly, and then a top 32(prolly) or 16 or top 12 will also catch you up on the curve)
    2011 Great Lakes Fall Regional Champion
    T8 2012 USA Nationals
    T64 2011 and 2013 USA Nationals

  25. #25
    Gallery Administrator
    Forum Moderator
    DukeFireBird's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Overland Park
    Posts
    3,089
    Blog Entries
    1
    Images
    49
    what you both said is accurate, I did have to leave for work shortly after posting that, but that is the eliminated line for now.

    I Will be figuring out a more detailed answer soon

    also as a random side note:
    828 masters in contention
    293 seniors in contention
    197 juniors in contention

    all based on being within 36 points from 40th place.

    Yes I do realize the odds of this are improbable, but it is the bare minimum.

    Also, the high end of the lock is set to the following
    MA:78
    SR:82
    JR:86

    MA:42-78
    SR:46-82
    JR:50-86
    so the current scale is huge, but it does still need refining.
    Last edited by DukeFireBird; 05/01/2012 at 12:56 AM.
    Brony and proud of it! /)
    LL, TO, and seasoned judge
    Wants
    If you need any assistance with the Pokegym gallery, please send a PM and I will get in touch ASAP!
    Professor cup 2013 - Top 16

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •