Card chances?

[Awesomonewb]

Is there an easy way to figure out the chances of starting with a certain card. 7 cards in beginning hand... 3 copies of a card in that deck... 1st card you draw if you dont draw, 3/60 or 1/20 chance. and then next card if you still don't draw, 3/59... then 3/58 etc... is there an equation or an online thing to help figure this out?

[tehmoe]

well its more or less like this. 7 in hand, 6 in prize. lets assume you dont prize any and you dont have any in starting hand. then that puts you at 3/47, next turn is 3/46, next turn is 1/15, then its 3/43 etc.

[Chairman Kaga]

Originally Posted by Awesomonewb

is there an equation or an online thing to help figure this out?

Yes, the question of odds on drawing cards from a deck is a hypergeometric probability distribution.

This is a good online calculator for it.

[dave321]

Assuming you mean "what are the chances of getting x card on the very first players turn regardless of whether or not it's me...", (which I can only assume means power spray but) and also assuming you only need this one card, here are your probablities.

Starting with a 7-card hand going second: about a 35% chance.
Starting with a 7-card hand and getting to draw (assuming none are in your prizes): 35%, with about a 7% chance to draw
Starting with a 7-card hand and getting to draw (assuming one is in your prizes): 35%, with about a 5% chance to draw
Starting with a 7-card hand and getting to draw (assuming two are in your prizes): 35%, with about a 2% chance to draw.

And if you're curious the chance of 1 of them being in your prizes is a 1 in 3 chance (if you don't get it in your first draw). 1 in 9 for two of them, and 1 in 27 for all three.

And of course if they're all in your prizes you aren't drawing it.