How prevalent will the non-EX Rayquaza be?

[honchvire]

With all the hype that Hydra/Darkrai and Garch/Altaria are getting, do you think we will be seeing a lot of Rayquaza's tech'd into decks?
For those unaware, it is a dragon type with 120HP, 3 retreat, and an attack for (L) that deals 40 damage and you discard top 2 cards of your deck. Heavy Ballable, and splashable into any deck running (L), prism or WLFM blend energy.
Being able to Donk evolving dragon basics, tynamos, etc seems pretty good, and most of the stage 1 dragons seem in range of its attack too. The discard could be unfortunate with Junk Arm gone, but it seems manageable.
Thoughts? Will this have the "Heatmor effect" and keep dragon decks in check until its not worth running anymore?

[deashira]

I think there are several factors to consider. First, it depends on how prevalent the dragon decks will be. I'm not convinced Rayquaza is good for anything aside from the donk factor and if the majority of your matches aren't dragons then is it worth the spot?

The second issue is consistency. Given the speed at which Garchomp decks set up, Rayquaza may easily be OHKO'd by a turn 2 Garchomp. So, you are looking for a first turn Rayquaza and lightning energy. The energy may or may not be an issue depending on deck type, but if you are only running on Rayquaza it may very well be prized when you need it. Adding extra copies improves your chances of starting with it, but compounds issue number one.

Finally, there is Emolga. If he sees play in dragon decks (I know he will in mine, in part for this reason) then even if you get your Rayquaza/Lightning start, you still can't OHKO him. Best case scenario: you KO him turn 2 before Garchomp comes up and KOs you back.

That said, I think Rayquaza could find a place in dragon decks utilizing Altaria where his single energy attack's damage could double or even triple (but Garchomp is still better).

[Nintendan]

I'm not sure how important it will be, but I believe it will tremendously help with early disruption in Lightning decks, especially against Garchomp/Altaria considering that you one shot both Gible and Swablu and even any Gabite's that are Dragon Calling. Will also help against Hydreigon as well, as well as taking out it's evolutions.

[Otaku]

I must wonder why the card itself isn't worth running backed by Altaria. Obviously Altaria doesn't help a T1 donk, but a T2/3 OHKO could reach amazing levels... and that matters because we are talking a reasonably sized Basic Pokemon using a single Energy. I guess I am thinking of the mirror (or any deck that could one shot your Stage 2 Garchomp.

However my "You Should Know Better" Sense is tingling, so I am sure one of you will explain it to me. ;)

[Ignatious]

The card seems great, to be honest. It's match ups are limited, but in those match ups is a basic scoring KOs with a single energy. Basics and stage ones are OHKOed, and it sets up Rayquaza EX for a 2HKO. I do hate that the card can donk, though. It keeps frustrating me how they keep printing cards with donk capabilities.

[Otaku]

I concur; besides also thinking that maybe this Rayquaza has a use that maybe the Japanese players are missing (or perhaps that some are keeping quiet about), the donk potential is irritating. Unfortunately, TPC keeps creating cards that aid in donking, exacerbating the problem. I'd really like to see future cards simply not have inexpensive attacks capable of doing damage on a players first turn. Let each players first turn be about setting up. Even small damaging attacks seem prone to throwing that out of whack, let alone one for 40 against a soon to be prevalent Weakness.

Drawbacks that don't matter when you win aren't much of a drawback when it comes to donking.

[King Piplup]

It still has to make the set for any of this to be relevant, unfortunately.

[rayquaza2222]

It could be a Sigilyph counter for Eel, Emboar, or Hydra (Energy mover) decks that heavily use EX pokemon as a main. Since his second attack does 90, Sigilyph can be countered there. That's the best I see going for.

[Pikajew1213]

Originally Posted by King Piplup

It still has to make the set for any of this to be relevant, unfortunately.

I hope it is i wanna T1 a tynamo without having to deal with the whole (i have another basic and gan skyarrow dce pluspower my own mewtwo)

[Otaku]

Originally Posted by King Piplup

It still has to make the set for any of this to be relevant, unfortunately.

...isn't most of this discussion for BW-On?

Seriously, I assumed we were talking BW-On, in which case even if it doesn't make this set, it's probably coming the next set. While it might not be in either, odds are it would be in this coming set or the one following it.

[rayquaza2222]

^Odds are all Rayquazas will be in Dragons Exalted. :DDDDDDDD

[untitled]

Check out my thread here: http://pokegym.net/forums/showthread.php?t=166141
for more information on what King Piplup is talking about. I actually screwed up in the math and everything in my first post, but the fact still remains that Rayquaza will most likely not be in our August set. Since we don't know all the cards that will be released alongside Rayquaza yet, there's no real way to know how popular it will be.

[King Piplup]

Originally Posted by Otaku

...isn't most of this discussion for BW-On?

Seriously, I assumed we were talking BW-On, in which case even if it doesn't make this set, it's probably coming the next set. While it might not be in either, odds are it would be in this coming set or the one following it.

Yep, but the format doesn't change that there really isn't room for him in DRE. Why would the format matter?

[Otaku]

Originally Posted by King Piplup

Yep, but the format doesn't change that there really isn't room for him in DRE. Why would the format matter?

I never thought there was room for any Pokemon in Double Rainbow Energy.

...

Oh you mean Dragons Exalted? Boy I hope that isn't the official shorthand. I assumed it would be DRX. Assuming they don't reprint Double Rainbow Energy again, I can might be able to handle DRE as a set abbreviation in another five years.

Getting back to the actual topic, you're discussing what set it will be in.

Most of us are discussing if there might be some use playing it when it is released, which is based on speculation, something we tend to enjoy doing with newer cards. The only reason "format" matters is because nothing that has been said depends on anything but the card being released. So if it isn't in the next set, it never shows up in HGSS-On.

If you don't think it will be used at all, that is fine. However even if it is just two sets away, we can still play some Theorymon. None of us are all hyped about it, just a bit surprised something that could be fairly useful isn't showing up in the Japanese lists we've seen. Neither has the Pokemon EX version, so are both little more than free Prizes? Or are the Japanese just not enjoying the deck(s) that would use them.

[King Piplup]

Originally Posted by Otaku

I never thought there was room for any Pokemon in Double Rainbow Energy.

...

Oh you mean Dragons Exalted? Boy I hope that isn't the official shorthand. I assumed it would be DRX. Assuming they don't reprint Double Rainbow Energy again, I can might be able to handle DRE as a set abbreviation in another five years.

Haha, yes, that's true...Hopefully we get official word on the abbreviation soon .

Getting back to the actual topic, you're discussing what set it will be in.

Most of us are discussing if there might be some use playing it when it is released, which is based on speculation, something we tend to enjoy doing with newer cards. The only reason "format" matters is because nothing that has been said depends on anything but the card being released. So if it isn't in the next set, it never shows up in HGSS-On.

Now you start to lose me. The card will never be legal for premier events in the HS-on format (Barring any foreign events I'm not aware of), since it isn't released until post Worlds, and the first premier events of the season start on September 1st; the day we rotate to BW-on.

Clearly I know that speculation happens .

If you don't think it will be used at all, that is fine. However even if it is just two sets away, we can still play some Theorymon. None of us are all hyped about it, just a bit surprised something that could be fairly useful isn't showing up in the Japanese lists we've seen. Neither has the Pokemon EX version, so are both little more than free Prizes? Or are the Japanese just not enjoying the deck(s) that would use them.

Oh no, I definitely think it will be used if it is released in Dragons Exalted. All I'm saying is that if Rayquaza is bumped, and we end up with Japan's BW7 as our November set, nobody really knows what effects that set will have on the metagame, potentially making Rayquaza not the card it could've been if it were released in Dragons Exalted.

[Otaku]

Thing is, most of us are just talking in general, not specifically Dragons Exalted. The metagame could totally change, but odds are enough of the old will still matter that we aren't completely wasting their time.

So if it wasn't clear, unless otherwise specified I have been discussing BW-On format the whole time. That was what I've been trying to tell you. XD I have a few HGSS-On comments only after your post made it clear some other posts may not have been discussing BW-On.

[King Piplup]

Originally Posted by Otaku

Thing is, most of us are just talking in general, not specifically Dragons Exalted. The metagame could totally change, but odds are enough of the old will still matter that we aren't completely wasting their time.

So if it wasn't clear, unless otherwise specified I have been discussing BW-On format the whole time. That was what I've been trying to tell you. XD I have a few HGSS-On comments only after your post made it clear some other posts may not have been discussing BW-On.

My post was 100% talking about BW-on, sorry if any confusion existed...? I was assuming we had to be talking about BW-DRX, since that's the meta we have info from Japan on, and we have no idea what will be in CF/FB, the meat could drastically shift, like what Mewtwo caused.

[Otaku]

Now I am confused again. Japan isn't BW-DRX either, because their set structure is different than ours. I realize we often use approximate terms, but for example they've had the Rayquaza in question for as long as they've had any of the Dragon-Type Pokemon.

We may not get it... doesn't mean we can't be ready for it if it does come out alongside the first batch of Dragons. I am not the Otaku I could be, so for example I don't speak or read Japanese (the shame!) but for example Pokebeach lists this Rayquaza as being part of "Dragon Selection". I don't know how hard that initial allotment was to get, but this Rayquaza is also available in Dragon Blast and as a Promo! Oh, and all three are different artwork as well, so it is something of a wasted resource if they don't release it three times.

So I am finding it less and less likely to be left out, but then again I don't know how much has been leaked about the set, and sometimes the way they shuffle around the cards baffles me. Still, let us say the card is delayed until the next set after that... what are we expecting to radically alter the metagame?

None of us are setting it up as the best card in the format or that it will be required for the best deck in the format. What we like it for, if it was going to work with the card releasing in DRX, will probably also work should it be postponed to the next set. I mean, odds are Dragon-Types won't completely fade from the metagame, nor will Basic Pokemon that 40 damage first turn can threaten... though outside of a specific Pokemon it might need a PlusPower or two to help. :)

[honchvire]

Originally Posted by King Piplup

...and we have no idea what will be in CF/FB, the meat could drastically shift, like what Mewtwo caused.

Mewtwo never caused any meat to shift for me.
I think rayquaza whenever it is released will have a big impact as long as dragon types and tynamos are big. I like the shift towards less energy/less damage attacks. Reminds me of the DP-on era, after LA was released.

[ProfessorJacob7]

Originally Posted by rayquaza2222

It could be a Sigilyph counter for Eel, Emboar, or Hydra (Energy mover) decks that heavily use EX pokemon as a main. Since his second attack does 90, Sigilyph can be countered there. That's the best I see going for.

hydreigon/darkrai lists would probably use giratina ex instead. it's attack does 90 for 3 energy that the Dark blend energy already provides ( for 90 iirc) and it's attack isn't affected by any effects on the defending pokemon, so it goes through safeguard.

I'm also curious if that and non ex rayquaza's attack will translate over to just that. not affected by effects. specifically if it WILL be effected by weakness/resistance, as those are not categorized as "effects on the defending pokemon." if it does end up reading like that, I feel like it makes garchomp almost unplayable vs eels. t1 ko's on the basics and t3-late game 90x2's on the stage 2's is brutal. I guess we'll find out in a month.

[Otaku]

It has been stated in the past that Weakness and Resistance are not considered "effects" but fundamental aspects of the game, like HP itself, and Pokebeach has a solid track record for translations: not perfect by any means but a solid record.

[ProfessorJacob7]

I noticed today that the english giratina ex scan that pokebeach has doesn't specify weakness/resistance, and the japanese wording for both giratina's first attack and rayquaza's second attack are the same. so it will be affected by weakness/resistance. probably.

[Otaku]

Knuckle Down (Machoke - Triumphant)

Q. Machoke's "Knuckle Down" attack says the amount of damage is "not affected by Poke-Powers, Poke-Bodies, or any other effects on the Defending Pokemon". Does that mean it ignores Weakness & Resistance too?
A. Weakness & Resistance are not considered as effects on the Defending Pokemon, so they are not ignored. (Jun 9, 2011 PUI Rules Team)

So the basic guideline now is that if it does not specify Weakness and Resistance, it should be affected by them.

[ProfessorJacob7]

^ right right right. I wrote it wrong. It's good for rayquaza that it IS affected by weakness/resistance. My bad.

[honchvire]

Now that it is known that Rayquaza will be in our set as a shiny secret rare, but with no regular version, how prevelant will it be? Will scarcity keep it out of BR and Regionals lists? Will people fork up the cash for it, even though it might have its Dragon Selection version printed in our november set? Will we even see Dragon Selection cards stateside? Where do you expect the price to settle at?