NoPoke
Active Member
Short Answer:UP!
Longer answer:
4-1 is an 80% win record. For an 80% win expectancy the elo_delta is 241 points
so if you are 1825 and your average opponents were 1584 you don't go up or down.
With a 200 point average elo_delta your win expectancy is 76%. You performed 4% better than expected and will gain 0.04*K*5 points (approx) Which at battle roads will be around +1.6 points.
The big caveat with this is that the player you lost too has to have an elo rating close to your opponent average, but since your average opponent is close to the 1600 entry point I expect that this assumption is true.
ANY player with an 1800 rating who can anticpate going 4-1 ought to play. Even at 3-1 an 1800 player most likely won't find their rating alters after the tournament is uploaded.
Even 2-1 isn't a disaster for the 1800 player. Your rating may drop by 0.3K (2.5 points at BR) 2-1 is not a spectacular record! How about 1-1 drop? That must be bad right? Wrong! 1-1 drop at battle road will cost the typical 1800 rated player 4 points.
[there is some fine detail in the dynamics that makes the above incorrect but not so much incorrect that the answers I gave are wrong. More not the whole story]
Longer answer:
4-1 is an 80% win record. For an 80% win expectancy the elo_delta is 241 points
so if you are 1825 and your average opponents were 1584 you don't go up or down.
With a 200 point average elo_delta your win expectancy is 76%. You performed 4% better than expected and will gain 0.04*K*5 points (approx) Which at battle roads will be around +1.6 points.
The big caveat with this is that the player you lost too has to have an elo rating close to your opponent average, but since your average opponent is close to the 1600 entry point I expect that this assumption is true.
ANY player with an 1800 rating who can anticpate going 4-1 ought to play. Even at 3-1 an 1800 player most likely won't find their rating alters after the tournament is uploaded.
Even 2-1 isn't a disaster for the 1800 player. Your rating may drop by 0.3K (2.5 points at BR) 2-1 is not a spectacular record! How about 1-1 drop? That must be bad right? Wrong! 1-1 drop at battle road will cost the typical 1800 rated player 4 points.
[there is some fine detail in the dynamics that makes the above incorrect but not so much incorrect that the answers I gave are wrong. More not the whole story]
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