Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Sabledonk - math and analyzation

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Well, yes, Luxchomp is broken. Very broken. But you can tech against it, you can get into play, and even if it got half of its prizes before you pull off a single knockout, you still were able to comeback.

Sabledonk doesn't let you play. It doesn't let you comeback or tech. All you can do against this deck is maximate Spiritombs and hope for a good opening hand.

And to add something most who posted here forget - not everyone reads about the metagame and "prepares" for Sabledonk by adding Spiritombs. If I was a casual player, go to (yes the European ones start soon after the BW release!) Nats was my first big tournament and don't get to draw a card in 4 out of 7 games - well I guess I'd not play the game any longer.
 
Porii Sames said:
No...

I was just curious, as there's been a LOT of talk about it, and I haven't heard of people that are ACTUALLY playing it for Nats.
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People don't tend to post their nats choice on messageboards.

Especially not 2 months in advance.

Especially not just so randoms can use the info to score a cheap and worthless point.
 
NoPoke said:
@Spidy, I don't believe there has ever been a 90% deck in the history of pokemon.

Much as in many competative sports a small difference in skill/deck will eventually tell in the long game. Luxchomp has a decent end game if you are careful with your resources. It has a super engine and is fast. It is widely played too. That is why it wins.
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but its not the deck thats 90%, its the player using the deck
i admit that might be a little high, but its way higher than 60

i picked up the world champion deck and played against some friends with it. and guess what, i lost

however i can give someone thats not that great a sabledonk list and the world champ a sabledonk list, and they will both win about the same amount
 
I want to add something to this thread, that has not been discussed before, as far as i know....
So I've basicly took Morten's Magnezone/Regirock list and decided to test a little bit vs. Sabledonk.
I added an idea to the list, that worked really good in the end.
I went 7-0 VS. Sabledonk in playtesting, and that was not just luck, it really worked.
I was playing 4 Sableye and 4 Spiritomb.
Both of them are working really good with Magnezone, as you can decide wether to evolve your Magnemite/ton with Spiritomb or use a Supporter Card with Sableye.
It starts really good and isn't too clunky, because you can discard the Sableyes/Tombs out of your hand right away with Regirock.
It has a really good Gyarados Match-Up, is quite ok Vs. Gengar and SP, so definitly a good choice to go for.

-Darkmot.
 
If you want to make enemies, try to change something.
-Woodrow Wilson

The heresy of one age becomes the orthodoxy of the next.
-Helen Keller

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelliigent, but the one most responsive to change.
- Charles Darwin
 
Darkmot basically showed something I was thinking for a little bit.

Decks that aren't based around donking with Sableye will basically be forced to run both Sableye AND Spiritomb. That's 8 spots in the deck just to avoid not playing the game.

Can somebody plz tell me why this is healthy?
 
bullados said:
Darkmot basically showed something I was thinking for a little bit.

Decks that aren't based around donking with Sableye will basically be forced to run both Sableye AND Spiritomb. That's 8 spots in the deck just to avoid not playing the game.

Can somebody plz tell me why this is healthy?
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It just isn't, Rogues have been hard to make the last few months, now they will be even harder to make....
Metagame will consist of 3-4 Decks, Sabledonk, Gyarados, Sablelock and probably something with 4 of Tomb and Bleye....
However whoever says, that this is not a problem is going to fail at tournaments.
It is true, skilled/better players will have a hard time to win tournaments.
Just totally unhealthy -.-

-Darkmot.
 
Darkmot said:
I added an idea to the list, that worked really good in the end.
I went 7-0 VS. Sabledonk in playtesting, and that was not just luck, it really worked.
I was playing 4 Sableye and 4 Spiritomb.
-Darkmot.
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You basically nailed it.

Sableye Donk vs non Sableye/Tomb 75% in favor of Sableye
Sableye Donk vs Deck w/ 4 Sableye 50%/50% if they have collector
Sableye Donk vs Deck w/4 Spiritomb - 40% of starting first and not facing trainer lock. (Thus Sableye is unfavorable)
Sableye Donk vs Deck w/4 Spiritomb & 4 Sableye - yeah not sure 0%, but not good at all for Sableye.

If you have a deck with 4 spiritomb, you basically have a statistical advantage over Sableye donk. If you run a deck with also Sableye 4 themselves you dominat Sabledonk.

I think it stinks that 4 cards of your deck are going to be defined for you, but so be it for the next 3 months. SP builds without sableye will be asking for losses.
 
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SLOW DECK said:
You basically nailed it.

Sableye Donk vs non Sableye/Tomb 75% in favor of Sableye
Sableye Donk vs Deck w/ 4 Sableye 50%/50% if they have collector
Sableye Donk vs Deck w/4 Spiritomb - 40% of starting first and not facing trainer lock.

If you have a deck with 4 spiritomb, you basically have a statistical advantage over Sableye donk. If you run a deck with also Sableye 4 themselves you dominat Sabledonk.

I think it stinks that 4 cards of your deck are going to be defined for you, but so be it for the next 3 months.
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Statistically a good Rogue with 4 Bleye and 4 Tomb should dominate the whole Meta....
IMO the best way to play that is Magnezone with Regirock as a discarding engine, as it is not too clunky and good vs. pretty everything in the Metagame....
-Darkmot.
 
if you 7-0 sablelock youre lucky, nothing else... Im confident I provided pretty solid math why neither 4 tom b nor 4 eye will save you... Larger posts coming later
 
SLOW DECK said:
You basically nailed it.

Sableye Donk vs non Sableye/Tomb 75% in favor of Sableye
Sableye Donk vs Deck w/ 4 Sableye 50%/50% if they have collector
Sableye Donk vs Deck w/4 Spiritomb - 40% of starting first and not facing trainer lock. (Thus Sableye is unfavorable)
Sableye Donk vs Deck w/4 Spiritomb & 4 Sableye - yeah not sure 0%, but not good at all for Sableye.

If you have a deck with 4 spiritomb, you basically have a statistical advantage over Sableye donk. If you run a deck with also Sableye 4 themselves you dominat Sabledonk.

I think it stinks that 4 cards of your deck are going to be defined for you, but so be it for the next 3 months. SP builds without sableye will be asking for losses.
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for both sableye and spiritomb you would have to take 40% of 50%, which is 20%
odds really arnt in its favor

but ya, everyone is agreeing the format will be unhealthy

so why doesnt TPCI do anything about it?
 
Yoshi- said:
if you 7-0 sablelock youre lucky, nothing else... Im confident I provided pretty solid math why neither 4 tom b nor 4 eye will save you... Larger posts coming later
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Just was comfortable with that Matchup....
Sablelock DOES HAVE a problem vs. Magnezone, as it is probably it's worst Matchup....
Especially with 4 Tombs and 4 Sableyes it will be hard for Sablelock, and believe me I can imagine that, as I am not the worst Sablelock player ;D

And in the end, math won't help us, those who don't want to play Sabledonk WILL HAVE to play something, that has quite a decent chance to win vs. it....

-Darkmot.
 
With Sabledonk, if you start with Sableye, and get to go first, there are still occasions when the first turn will fail. All it takes is for your starting hand to only consist of any number of Sableye, SSU, Poke Turn, Pokemon Rescue, Junk Arm, Seeker, Expert Belt, etc. When that happens, all you can do is Impersonate a Pokemon Collector to get going on turn 2 (which will probably be too late).

A so-so player will probably do better with Sabledonk than with something like LuxChomp. But a good LuxChomp player (who now includes 4 Sableye) will probably do better than he would by playing Sabledonk. It just means that 4 Sableye and 4 Pokemon Collector might become essential for most decks.
 
Regarding a Pure Sableye Donk:
If Sableye donk deck doesn't go first, tough match up. (Either facing another sableye or non sableye start and losing coin flip)
If Sableye goes first and faces spritomb, eek ( No trainers, not much chance of doing much unless you happen to have both dark energy and crobat in hand.)

Now there are still going to be decks that can "pull of" the "Seeker Donk / Sableye Decks." I played Regigigas at states and regionals, I didn't have Sabelye in the list, but I could have, I can't tell you the number of times that I was able to Seeker Donk on my first turn on my Gigas build, many...., just because the deck had the heavy trainer cards to get to it. On a 50/50 chance (ask little witz) Thus I might play gigas with 4 sabeleye, but I can definitely still get the double donk on the first turn.
 
you don't even need to ban these cards, merely restrict them...if certain cards had a restriction of 2 per deck, the world would be sunshine, bunnies and ice cream everyday
 
I plan on inserting 4 Sableye into my LuxChomp deck. I hate that I have to do it, but the format dictates it. If the Sabledonk player doesn't go first against a normal deck that also runs 4 Sableye (50/50 chance), he will lose. I hate to say it, but every deck needs to run 4 Sableye. That will make Sabledonk only 50/50 to win, and 50/50 isn't good enough to make Top Cut.
 
I don't think the problem is that even with everyone running 4 Sableye there is a still 50/50 shot of either player winning. The problem is that the gmae won't be fun. Let me ask, how fun is it to play against a deck that you either get no turns or you against a deck that isn't any good past turn one?

The reality is, even if you do play Luxchomp and have the 4 Sableye and you do get to go first to live past the donk, how fun is a matchup going to be against an opponent that will lose either their next turn beacause they will deck themselves, or have no Pokemon to actually do any damage with.

All in all, with the advent of a Sableye infested format the game will not be any fun. Pokemon has given the people the right to decide to have a fun tournament, if enough people don't play the deck then the odds are more fun matches will be played in the tournament against decks not designed to not be any fun. Sure there will still be some people who will play the Sableye deck, but so what? It is up to ALL OF US to prevent a ruined tournament experience from happening

I am going to put the following in my signature and abide by it and anyone else can feel welcome to do so. If I can get enough people to follow suit, we can make Nationals a fun place to go.

Inorder to create a more fun environment for everyone, I do solemnly swear to not play any donk decks during the rest of the tournament season.
 
Thanks for the analysis. JWittz's video was very nice but I knew the math was a little off because the odds of starting with Sableye can't be exactly 40% (as you showed, and no offense to JWittz either!). And that throws the rest of his analysis off. I tried explaining this to my friends but got nowhere when I demonstrated my math because they were confused when I started talking about factorials... lol

Always glad to see a mathematical analysis on Pokemon :d
 
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