Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Pre-XVII Werewolf Metagame Analysis

@PM-I know what a reputation is. :wink:


as long as the caliber of play continues through these games.
Which is why any reputation needs to be based on what someone is doing currently rather than what they've done in the past, or how many games they've played.
 
Well, I wasn't meaning all of that exactly. Pikamaster is not one of those 5+ game veterans, Ikrit was playing on a new player account so he doesn't count, jellyfisher hasn't played 5+ games either, SS7 was on the Wolf side, DarthPika was defending the Veterans, and PokeChampofPokeBeach was doing good for this game EXCLUDING that Name claim which gave me Reshiram by Night 2. So, you guys don't really count.

Uhh. For starters, both Pikamaster and Jellyfisher have played 5+ games. (IIRC)

However, I love how Cantor was scorned, but now that Cantor=Irkit he played well.
 
Jellyfisher had played 4 games and I have been playing since WW X. As for the others, you cannot say that they just don't count simply because they don't fit with your argument.

---------- Post added 08/04/2012 at 01:05 PM ----------

@PM-I know what a reputation is. :wink:



Which is why any reputation needs to be based on what someone is doing currently rather than what they've done in the past, or how many games they've played.

So a player can't carry a reputation over from a previous game as long as he continues playing well?
 
Jellyfisher had played 4 games and I have been playing since WW X. As for the others, you cannot say that they just don't count simply because they don't fit with your argument.

---------- Post added 08/04/2012 at 01:05 PM ----------



So a player can't carry a reputation over from a previous game as long as he continues playing well?

I'm saying reputation is one thing, and it is unavoidable. I don't have as much of an issue with Reputation as I do the outright vet protect that has been going on. I believe reputation should only last as long as someone plays well. Let me say this-Some who have their elite reputations don't deserve them due to slackening play.
 
Jellyfisher had played 4 games and I have been playing since WW X. As for the others, you cannot say that they just don't count simply because they don't fit with your argument.

Um, I actually didn't know that you played since WWX when I made the post where I explained that. Now I know.

I was MEANING the Town Veterans when I made that post. They have 20+ people on their side, Wolves have 5 others on their side, and Indies just have themselves. I know Cantor was Ikrit but that wasn't noticed to all players until Day 10. It was actually a shocker to me myself.
 
Reputation does have a factor in that it does leave a lingering effect on others as to what one player is known to do from past and repetitive play/style that is not so easily avoidable to not consider in future games.

Players should strive to change up their skills and play style. A new player should not expect that a vet player will act and play the same way each game. Nor should a vet repeat the same play style in future games.

If a player is labeled as a vet after so many games, I think that is a mistake to consider labeling that player as such.
Say that player has played 5 games, and for each game that player was a townie each time. Then on the 6th game, they are a wolf.

That player starts to play "bad", since they are "new" to being a wolf and have little skill in that role. Should their labeled vet status hold true to be a reason to excuse this "bad" play to say they need to up their game play?

Each WW game is not the same. People who are new or are vets should try to treat that game as a completely new and individual game that does not include any factors from previous games.

Vets should try to keep from playing the same each time. You do not see the same exact Chess game played the same each time. And in Chess- if you stick to the same strategies against the same opponent- you will lose since your opponent can predict you play/moves.

If a player is doing awesome in a game, it could be that what style they are playing for that game is doing well. Then they play a second game and use the same style, but it is not working out so well and their play is now "bad"- what works in one game will not always work in the next. That player should see that they need to have multiple styles of play. That is where self improvement should kick in.

If a person focuses to much into another persons reputation, they fall pray to being mislead for relying on that reputation and then they play bad. A player should of course recognize the reputation, but not rely on it to help them win the game based on that alone, since a player should be self striving to develop their own style and rely on past personal experience and trying new tactics.

My thoughts is all.
 
I think there needs to be a larger amount of people let in instead of like a 1-2 sign up period. I also think there needs to be a bunch of content for for the first person dies.
 
I think there needs to be a larger amount of people let in instead of like a 1-2 sign up period. I also think there needs to be a bunch of content for for the first person dies.

What do you mean? I'm very confused.


EDIT: Also bigger post coming up later.
 
Really? I know there was a Dead Wolf thing where the Dead Werewolves got access to, but that's pretty much all I saw for the dead.
 
Team Dead Guys Inc is/was a message board (quick topic) where some of the power players from both the town and wolf sides chatted and speculated about game events. It ended up having over 400 posts between us.

It was a great way to keep ourselves involved after we had died and been eliminated from the game.

I won't be be sharing the link to it, because; if the offensiveness of KP's above post is X; the amount of crap we said on that thread is like 100X.
 
I feel as if I'm almost obliged to post in this and having the perspective of someone who comes from a very different Mafia/WW foundation would probably be helpful. +1 Confirm

Before I go any further there really needs to be a clearer distinction between 'veteranism' and reputation. Veteranism is where one considers everything that a "vet" says to be correct because they are a vet. Reputation is a completely different matter and the line between the two seems to be blurred right now. Someone might have a reputation for being a good player - that should inspire respect and/or fear depending on your faction but should not mean that you are obliged to agree with everything that they say.

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So what do I have to say about Beta Anon? First of all, props to cabd for putting the effort into hosting it. Props to all of the players who put their necks on the line in a very new way.

I'm biased, but it doesn't seem like our Wolf Team is getting as much credit as it should be. No, Anon games do not make it easier for the wolves in any way. What did we have in our favour?

> Closed Setup. While always an advantage, it is only small.
> No Background Reads. People couldn't do background searches on playstyles because of anonymity. As we saw, I made no effort to hide that I was Sableye, which shows how much I care about using past plays as hard evidence for a player having a certain role.
> Day Talk. This is potentially a great advantage but is useless in the hands of bad players.

What did the Town have in their favour?

> No Wolf Roleblocker. Plus plus everywhere.
> Seer + Priest + Backups. Follow the Cop everywhere to win.
> No Background Reads. We Wolves couldn't (if we wanted to) do background reads on how particular people played certain roles.
> Night Updates. As far as I could tell, there were no negatives for the Town in the Night Updates. The only minuses were for the Wolves. I had my name revealed both times I took a kill.
> Closed Setup. This is also a small advantage for Town as Wolves did not know if we were dealing with Seer+Priest only or with other PRs.
>Priest didn't RB

For a moment I'm going to take the perspective of someone who knows the setup and watches the game from outside. The Wolves are at a clear disadvantage. If the Town plays a purely theoretical game, Wolves lose.

Back to the game, the Wolves have two main advantages on Day 1 and Night 1. The Closed Setup (an advantage which will eventually become a Town Advantage on Day 2) and the fact that we can talk during the Day.

I'll break off from my analysis at this point to say that I could not possibly have asked for a better Wolf Team. I am not a person who is a particularly avid Wolf player and I thoroughly dislike having to rely on teammates who could potentially kill me off even if I played perfectly, often through no fault of their own. These teammates, though, renewed my faith in team play in an otherwise solo game. Ninetales-Vysekun has a play style which (although I despise it to no end!:lol:) complements well with mine. Marshtomp-SS7 also has a play style which I absolutely hate but it works!:lol: And if it works, I can't really criticise it. Vysekun has the great ability to completely change the topic without really trying, and that helped us a lot. SS7 flies under the radar pretty easily and is always a secure and reliable team player. And then there's me. I kinda just rage at people a bit and tell them not to role reveal when they have no votes on them.
From the word go we were talking all the time. At times we submitted our kill after everyone else had submitted roles. During the Day someone always had something new and interesting to say. This sort of synergy wins games and we proved that it does.

Wolves did not necessarily win this game alone. Town did most of our work, particularly on Day 1. Jigglypuff-Akane didn't make it easy for herself. Crobat-darkwing was simply begging to be lynched Day 1 and Steelix-KP made Day 2 autopilot by accidentally hammering Crobat, riding on the back of all the pressure I had put onto Crobat.

Psychologically we had already won.

This brings to light 3 points which determine whether a game is won or lost:

1. Player Skill
2. Momentum
3. Game Theory

Player Skill is a biggie, of course. The wolves played a more skilled game in terms of tactics than the town and thusly we whitewashed the Town. But what really determines player skill? In my opinion, the ability to control momentum and knowledge of Game Theory.

We wolves won this game because of our huge momentum advantage over the town. Losing the Seer was bad luck for the town, but we turned it into momentum by pushing through the town's confusion. Ninetales-Vysekun was particularly important here, since changing the topic of discussion shifts momentum into our favour. We only lost a little momentum on Day 3 when Jiggly threw a case against me. After I replied and Jiggly apparently disappeared, that momentum was passively recovered.

Game Theory. Oooooh wow. I notice that on the 'Gym and on 6P this is almost completely absent and not without reason - there are always crazy new roles and factions which throw any type of orthodox theory out the window. However, this also removes much of the strategic element of the game and replaces it with "who gets the best role wins". In Beta Anon Day 1 I took the effort to discredit any possible role claims from Crobat so that if they did come, they would not be believed. This paid off. If Crobat had a better grasp of earlygame theory he may have claimed earlier and requested "Follow the Cop", potentially leading to our certain loss if he pulled it off. Lategame LYLO theory also played a significant part in our win. The Town didn't know the number of wolves and so should not have been putting votes on players with such a low lynch count. We merely quick hammered.

So no, I don't agree that Anon makes the game easier for wolves. I also don't agree that Anon itself removes reputation advantages although for this player pool it appeared that it did so. Every game, no matter what style, will eventually boil down to how the players play the game. When it comes down to it, gaming is all about the game. We played a far superior game - even cabd, the host, could only find a moot theory point and active lurking as the only scum tells for the entire wolf crew. +1 Confirm

Once again, credit must go to my team who eliminated all speed bumps in that game.

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Back to the 'Gym, I have three main criticisms:

> Game Size
> Roles
> Flavour Text

TL;DR?: Gaming. It's all about the game.

Napoleon. Thank you for your post. It is good to get the perspective of someone who's played the game very differently and hear there thoughts.


There should be a distinction between Vet Reverence and Reputation.

Purely theoretically, it was Priest/Seer vs Alpha WW, with a 8/3 count. I'd say its a little town favored.

I also need to give props to my wolf teammates. Napoleon and Vysekun definitely played well and stayed under the radar until Day 3 arrived and we tried to coordinate our hammer. Excellent play. We avoided committing the errors the town did, and thus avoided the lynch. So I'd probably have to say it was a combination of good wolf play and bad town play.

I also like your thoughts about player skill, momentum, and game theory.

Game theory is a lot about what causes the town to win so often. Not enough thought is given to game theory and balance during role creation. And such we suggest heavier thought into balancing the game.

And about the Gym things I also agree. All three of those are valid criticisms of gym games right now.



When two wolves flip as non-Alphas the town will (in a perfect world where everyone knows their theory) start looking for links between the dead wolves and the Alpha. It's not hard to determine the third player when their partners are dead. This is particularly true in a smaller game where the pool of players to Seer is much smaller.

I think it is a PR, but we differ here. Especially when the Alpha is seered early in a small game set. Since seers have 2 jobs, 1) Flipping wolves and 2) Clearing townies. The data that has been collected in previous analysis of WW/Mafia actually intimates that the second job is more important than the first, and would thus shows the Alpha PR to be a PR.




Things and stuff


KP. Excellent post. I'll add my own thoughts about it.

I'm glad you stepped up and gave your thoughts as a newer player. This shows that the trends we have been seeing are visible for all to see, not just those who are familiar with the game.

Your examples from DP were spot on for Vet Reverence.

You bring up the wolves and their kill priorities. I'll give more background. Since PM was very new we decided to vote on who would be the Master Wolf, who dictated to the others what the kill would be and made other decisions. This Master Wolf would make the kill decision based on the other wolves input, and then give PM the kill decision.

I was voted Master Wolf. Therefore I took the reigns with gusto. I immediately told the wolves that our kill priority would be based on Day play for the immediate future. I told them to COMPLETELY ignore the name next to the post, and only correlate the name when denoting who said what. I wanted the wolves to take out the good players first.

Thus, I had the wolves send in their choices for the kill individually, so to keep their opinions from flavoring the others' choices. Thus they sent in their own lists to me.

Your kill targets were pretty good for having only seen the QTs after I turned them over. Orcmonkey2000 was indeed the second-place threat the wolves denoted. And he had never played on this forum before, but definitely was showing great ability in reading players' posts and analyzing them. He had good day play which stood out to the wolves.


KP is correct that the wolves in the early game killed people based on their power in the Day, and as the game progressed roles began to take priority over Day play. However his point remains. Many of the "vets" were not playing well at all. (in fact I made several errors that cost me an early exit). Scottistru made me look foolish in Day 2, and you all lynched him for playing pro-town (and being out of town and unable to defend himself :frown:). He played excellently both in XVI and at the end of XV.

Scottistru played pro-town and was good. He analyzed my posting style correctly, and linked it back to my behavior in XV, showing that I was WAY Out-of-Character (OOC) during Day 2 of XVI. Scottistru's Day play was excellent. One of the few. And almost a PERFECT EXAMPLE of how to use reputation/personal meta without using into vet reverence.


KP is correct that "vets" never really hit our radar other than when they had PRs. The "vets'" day play was never deemed a threat to the wolves. Absol was the exception to this due to his kill on me, but I discouraged killing him due to the priest's protection (which was accurate according to Akane).


KP said:
Not to get off topic, but, another hidden benefit to this thread is the break we have between games right now...I'm sorry, but XV was too close to XVI. I felt like I was in XV's late game, and that was a very, very unique situation that hasn't not been replicated anywhere else in the Gym's games. It was an issue that players were playing like it was XV.

I DEEPLY concur. I was very adamantly against the play of the town during XVI. You all were acting like it was still late-game XV. And I said this again and again and again. You all were playing very timidly and almost identically to late-game XV. Almost ALL of you were doing this (with the hardly an exception). These were completely different games, and early game should never be played like a late-game LyLo situation.

XV got into players' heads, and it definitely changed the way XVI was played out.

This break was good and necessary, even if I had never posted this thread. I believe that a decent break should separate WW games to let people unwind and refresh before starting another one. Especially since we run only one game at a time I think it is even more important.




@ Cabd. I don't think TDGI is as bad as you are saying. But there was definitely brutal honesty about the level of skill/play/etc of players real time.
 
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You bring up the wolves and their kill priorities. I'll give more background. Since PM was very new we decided to vote on who would be the Master Wolf, who dictated to the others what the kill would be and made other decisions. This Master Wolf would make the kill decision based on the other wolves input, and then give PM the kill decision.

I was voted Master Wolf. Therefore I took the reigns with gusto. I immediately told the wolves that our kill priority would be based on Day play for the immediate future. I told them to COMPLETELY ignore the name next to the post, and only correlate the name when denoting who said what. I wanted the wolves to take out the good players first.

Thus, I had the wolves send in their choices for the kill individually, so to keep their opinions from flavoring the others' choices. Thus they sent in their own lists to me.

Your kill targets were pretty good for having only seen the QTs after I turned them over.

I kept debating on whether or not to add that background, thanks for doing so. I'm just going to say that the method we used worked exceptionally. I will say that the "leader" somehow getting Night Killed would've been disastrous, had it been SS7. As soon as I realized JQ had a killing role, I made sure there were safety nets EVERYWHERE to avoid loss of wolf information. I'm not going to be specific, but if any wolves ever try this type of thing in the future, I highly recommend the leader setup some way of preventing info loss.
/mostly useless info

Also, me only getting the QT's when I succeeded you? Bah, I could give you a play by play of how just about every detail went down I read them so much. :rolleyes:


@ Cabd. I don't think TDGI is as bad as you are saying. But there was definitely brutal honesty about the level of skill/play/etc of players real time.
It was only slightly worse than my post.

Though, before my post was proofread....:rolleyes:
 
I kept debating on whether or not to add that background, thanks for doing so. I'm just going to say that the method we used worked exceptionally. I will say that the "leader" somehow getting Night Killed would've been disastrous, had it been SS7. As soon as I realized JQ had a killing role, I made sure there were safety nets EVERYWHERE to avoid loss of wolf information. I'm not going to be specific, but if any wolves ever try this type of thing in the future, I highly recommend the leader setup some way of preventing info loss.
/mostly useless info

Also, me only getting the QT's when I succeeded you? Bah, I could give you a play by play of how just about every detail went down I read them so much. :rolleyes:


It was only slightly worse than my post.

Though, before my post was proofread....:rolleyes:


I thought about that as well, but it creates an insular "our wolves are better" feeling if I don't reveal our tactics. In fact, it will probably make the wolves better in the long run if they follow that advice. We utilized it to its full advantage.

Excellent. I am very happy that I chose you as my replacement (which is one way to do it, the other is to have another vote).
 
I thought about that as well, but it creates an insular "our wolves are better" feeling if I don't reveal our tactics. In fact, it will probably make the wolves better in the long run if they follow that advice. We utilized it to its full advantage.

Excellent. I am very happy that I chose you as my replacement (which is one way to do it, the other is to have another vote).

Yep. One added benefit was that we didn't know each other's roles. Therefore, there was a lesser chance of linking ourselves to each other through dialogue. You should've seen the surprised reactions when I was forced to Role Reveal in the thread. None of the wolves even knew my role! If he'd have lived, I'd have been envious of SS7. Controlling that Bus Driver+Rolecop without either of us even knowing....:lol:
 
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