Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Tropical Beach is good for the game...however the price tag is not.

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It would be unusual, but if they planned for it from the start, it could work. Of course, the other obvious choice (Plasma Storm-on) is also very, very viable.
 
There are 4 sets legal in the B&W series (NXD, DEX, DRX, BCR).
There are 4 sets legal in the Team Plasma era (PLS, PLF, PLB, LTR).
We will get 3 more sets this season (XY1 in Feb, XY2 in May, XY3 in Aug).

It makes ZERO sense that they would break from their average 4-per-year cycle cadence to suddenly rotate 8, leaving us with 3 legal sets…notably less than the 5 that was forced to be the 2011 Nationals format. When TPCi decided to rotate early that year, it was because of an incompatibility of the new BW rules with the existing card pool (Sableye SF mostly, along with other supporting cards).

I understand the sentiment of "it would't surprise me one bit", but in this case we do know something about the logical reasoning of only rotating 4 as usual: we have new XY rules now, and nothing is broken.
 
losjackal said:
There are 4 sets legal in the B&W series (NXD, DEX, DRX, BCR).
There are 4 sets legal in the Team Plasma era (PLS, PLF, PLB, LTR).
We will get 3 more sets this season (XY1 in Feb, XY2 in May, XY3 in Aug).

It makes ZERO sense that they would break from their average 4-per-year cycle cadence to suddenly rotate 8, leaving us with 3 legal sets…notably less than the 5 that was forced to be the 2011 Nationals format. When TPCi decided to rotate early that year, it was because of an incompatibility of the new BW rules with the existing card pool (Sableye SF mostly, along with other supporting cards).
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Some relevant figures for Modified (counting the cut to the original Modified Format) the numbers are as follows:

Minimum Sets Cut: 0
Maximum Sets Cut: 7
Mean Sets Cut: 4 (rounded up)
Median Sets Cut: 4
Mode Sets Cut: 3
Amounts Never Cut: 1, 2, 6, or 8+

Going purely by the numbers, three or four sets seem most likely; that brings us to BCR-On or PLS-On. Cutting five sets is still reasonably common (has happened three times before), so PLF also fits the numbers reasonably well. Of course... PLS-On is the only one that fits the aesthetic sense of "why break up a set block?"

The thing is such "blocks" are a bit subjective and it is unclear whether they really matter, or at least matter as much as getting rid of Card X/Combo X/Deck X when relevant. There is another major factor to consider: next year brings us a BW-On Extended Format, does it not? This could justify a deeper cut, as this is very significant. Cards from pre-XY do not appear to have been designed with the new rules in mind, either; jettisoning them may be unnecessary or it may be vital depending on the direction intended for the game.

Multiple cards from the new XY-block are "same effect, different name" versions of what we currently have; this hardly proves we have to cut all the older cards, but it would allow for it and in some ways, make more sense. With certain pieces of support absent, I could very much see an LTR-On format, as well as moving rotation back a bit to allow for a possible extra set. The last few years things have been a bit "unstable"; perhaps a new standard for the timing of rotation is coming?

losjackal said:
I understand the sentiment of "it would't surprise me one bit", but in this case we do know something about the logical reasoning of only rotating 4 as usual: we have new XY rules now, and nothing is broken.
Click to expand...

Nothing is "broken" how you define it; many things are "broken" as I define it, but I don't think this is the best place for that discussion. Instead I bring it up to suggest that if we are going to engage in conjecture, we have to consider that future plans might "break" existing cards without us realizing it (not everything is as overt as Overeager and the rule changes leading to HGSS-On).

Addendum: It is also interesting to consider how many sets are left... and perhaps both should be ignored in favor of unique cards? I don't have data for the former but I just did a quick spreadsheet and with my similar categories it looks like

Minimum Sets Left: 4
Maximum Sets Left: 9
Mean Sets Left: 6 (rounded up)
Median Sets Left: 5
Mode Sets Left: 5

Note that the amount of sets remaining seems to climb to a new(ish) "high" before dropping back down. That is we started with a four set Modified, got a five set, then it dropped back to four, did five twice, hit six, dropped back to five, remained at five again, exploded up to nine, but then back down to five again before eventually getting back up to seven (what was left after the last rotation). Make of that what you will (and indeed, I don't know if it is relevant).

TL;DR: PLS-On seems most likely, but a few others seem plausible given the unique circumstances going into the next rotation. "Broken" is up for debate.
 
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Excellent analysis. Is there a reason for 5 set rotation for PLF-on? Something in PLS that is unsavory?

You make an interesting point of XY-on Standard, to contrast it to BW-on Extended. I could see that as a reason to do it. Which would mean only 3 sets legal at the beginning of 2014-2015 season, but it starts to open up.

If EX's didn't exist in XY, I might believe that a vastly deep cut past LTR could be in order. But if you have EX's in XY, you might as well also have the EX's in LTR, so why not keep precedent and rotate to Team Plasma.

Back to topic at hand…even the normal course of action, rotating 4 sets, could only barely keep Tropical Beach legal.
 
I originally thought before the current cut they would cut 5 sets so some of the Supporters and trainers couldn't be used for this season. Mainly, I wanted to see N, Darkrai and a few staples disappear so some of the newer Supporters to find a use within the current decks. Unfortunately, with most of the reprints, including another Darkrai, they'll still be around for a while. That's one of the reasons why I believe a mid-season cut will come before Nats as the same occurrence three years ago.
 
losjackal said:
Excellent analysis. Is there a reason for 5 set rotation for PLF-on? Something in PLS that is unsavory?
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Thank you; I try even if (as you know first hand) I fail spectacularly at times. XD

Notable (not necessarily dominant) cards from PLS that have not yet been reprinted are Klingklang [Plasma], Cobalion EX, Snorlax [Plasma], Togekiss, Exploud, Bicycle, Colress, Colress Machine, Escape Rope, Ether, Hypnotoxic Laser, Virbank City Gym, Dowsing Machine and Scramble Switch. I encourage people to double check as I will be surprised if something like Escape Rope didn't have a reprint I missed or was not due for a reprint or rechristening in the XY sets... but some of these I could see intentionally being cut from the game.

Taking out Colress Machine would make a lot of Team Plasma Pokémon harmless filler while still leaving them as perhaps an "entry" level deck from Extended to Standard. Some might be problems if left in too long; I may be disappointed with the job of policing and balancing the format being done, I do acknowledge that it is a difficult task: sometimes it is better safe than sorry. Bicycle, Colress, and Ether seen to fit there... plus if recent changes don't neuter Hypnotoxic Laser usage, axing it and Virbank City Gym could very well make PLF-On a legitimate option. PLF-On would also eliminate the most popular of the "generic" Ace Spec cards: Computer Search (gone with PLS-On as well), Dowsing Machine, and Scramble Switch.

losjackal said:
You make an interesting point of XY-on Standard, to contrast it to BW-on Extended. I could see that as a reason to do it. Which would mean only 3 sets legal at the beginning of 2014-2015 season, but it starts to open up.
Click to expand...

I would also like to re-emphasis the recent instability in traditional time frames for the game, such as when a season ends or when a rotation occurs; it is quite possible that things could re-align so that we had four or five sets when the split to ???-On Standard and BW-On Extended occurs. I also freely admit; this is pure conjecture and sometimes wild theory (I believe PLS-On to be the "safe" bet).

If a "late" rotation (or early set release) occurred, we could begin an "LTR-On" format with four sets. Like in the PLF-On hypothetical, it would keep familiar faces but make them more likely to function at a lower level than contemporary cards. Standard and Extended decks might have an overlap, but one where a deck that is dominant in one format is less competitive in the other. I would think a big concern for this split is that not enough players would participate in one or the other format, due to the difficulty of assembling and becoming skilled with at least two "primary" decks (one per format).

losjackal said:
If EX's didn't exist in XY, I might believe that a vastly deep cut past LTR could be in order. But if you have EX's in XY, you might as well also have the EX's in LTR, so why not keep precedent and rotate to Team Plasma.
Click to expand...

This is part of why I am wondering if a cut to LTR-On is more than just a pipe dream; in many ways it is a "hit parade" of impressive looking (if not always performing) Pokémon-EX and Stage 2 Pokémon. While this is in part due to their nature as promos being shoehorned into a set, it is indeed possible that the-powers-that-be are going to take advantage of such a "happy accident" to keep them in. Why risk creating a Mewtwo EX that is horribly underpowered (as I suspect the current Mega Evolving Pokémon-EX we have seen to be) or creating one that is even more powerful than the current? Or did I mess up and Mewtwo didn't get a Mega form? ^^'

Cutting to LTR might be an effort to get rid of cards that worry the-powers-that-be, either because they have been legitimately powerful, are legitimately popular (imbalance can occur because players refuse to play the necessary agents), or because they clash with future mechanics/cards (the driving force of set rotation, after getting people to buy more new product).

TL;DR: A lot of conjecture, but nothing concrete.
 
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I don't see them rotating past Plasma Storm tbh. With all the reprints, too deep of a rotation doesn't make sense. The things that wouldn't have been reprinted then that are significant are:

Zebstrika NXD
Gardevoir NXD
Exp Share
Heavy Ball
Level Ball
Skyarrow Bridge
Prism Energy
Chandelure NXD
Accelgor DEX
Sableye DEX
Zoroark NXD
Dark Claw
Dark Patch
Enhanced Hammer
Random Receiver
Ninetales DRX
Ho-Oh EX
Terrakion EX
Rayquaza EX
Bouffalant DRX
Tool Scrapper
Blend Energy
Reuniclus
Landorus EX
Computer Search
Altaria

So basically we'd be looking at a ban on Landorus, Ho-Oh, Gothgor, and an effective ban on Darkrai by making it nearly unplayable.

One thing that shouldn't be overlooked is that no rotation past Dragons Exalted should come without a reprint of Tool Scrapper (unless they rotate past Legendary Treasures), since otherwise Garbodor just becomes way too powerful.
 
For what it's worth, in recent LCs Hypnotoxic Laser usage has exploded. Pretty much every deck I saw ran at least a few if not maxed. Our area has a plethora of Virizion, but for players without access to Tropical Beach Laser+Virbank for 3 damage counters is the best first turn they can hope for. Virizion requires an energy to be attached, which can't happen unless a player goes first. Plus, late game energy can run dry and those lasers really do make a difference. I don't honestly know if it will affect the rotation, but Lasers/Virbank is EXTREMELY common right now, at least in my area.

@Char: Chatot from Plasma Blast has a single-energy ultimate tool discard. The ONLY thing it won't discard is Silver Mirror. It doesn't replace Tool Scrapper by any means, but it does help check Garbodor and can counter Trubbish tool decks if they're unprepared.
 
Charranitar said:
One thing that shouldn't be overlooked is that no rotation past Dragons Exalted should come without a reprint of Tool Scrapper (unless they rotate past Legendary Treasures), since otherwise Garbodor just becomes way too powerful.
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Does Garbodor become way too powerful? I believe the decks featuring it might become too powerful, but even that is only an issue because the-powers-that-be can't seem to give us a good beatstick that a) doesn't rely on an Ability or b) isn't a big, Basic Pokémon that hits too hard, too fast.

I'll be honest; I never wanted Tool Scrapper and I don't want it to return after it rotates out. I can deal with something generic that targets Pokémon Tools, but an Item that hits two of them just ruins a bunch of them and the ones it doesn't ruin still see play.

@AyameHikaru
Thanks for sharing; I was wondering how that might play out.
 
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