^Thats correct. Basically, you need to flip four tails in a row. Thats 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 = 0,0675 chance of failure.
There is a lot of time before Vanillluxe and Fliptini enter the format. Enough to find out if Stage 2s will be viable with Catcher around. If they are, Vanilluxe will make a...