Masters T50 vs Spring Battle Roads

Discussion in 'Battle Roads' started by JandPDS, Apr 20, 2008.

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  1. NoPoke

    NoPoke Active Member

    Short Answer:UP!

    Longer answer:

    4-1 is an 80% win record. For an 80% win expectancy the elo_delta is 241 points
    so if you are 1825 and your average opponents were 1584 you don't go up or down.

    With a 200 point average elo_delta your win expectancy is 76%. You performed 4% better than expected and will gain 0.04*K*5 points (approx) Which at battle roads will be around +1.6 points.

    The big caveat with this is that the player you lost too has to have an elo rating close to your opponent average, but since your average opponent is close to the 1600 entry point I expect that this assumption is true.

    ANY player with an 1800 rating who can anticpate going 4-1 ought to play. Even at 3-1 an 1800 player most likely won't find their rating alters after the tournament is uploaded.

    Even 2-1 isn't a disaster for the 1800 player. Your rating may drop by 0.3K (2.5 points at BR) 2-1 is not a spectacular record! How about 1-1 drop? That must be bad right? Wrong! 1-1 drop at battle road will cost the typical 1800 rated player 4 points.

    [there is some fine detail in the dynamics that makes the above incorrect but not so much incorrect that the answers I gave are wrong. More not the whole story]
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2008
  2. Scizor

    Scizor New Member

    If I had money to blow on ridiculous gas prices I'd go to as many as I can, personally. If you don't think you can win 4/5 games at a BR you don't really deserve anything.
     
  3. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    Good luck to everyone in the upcoming Battle Roads!!
     
  4. meganium45

    meganium45 Active Member

    Quit comparing this to last year.

    It is like comparing apples to blech.

    Last year, there was a PAID TRIP to HAWAII on the line if you made the top 16 in Ranking, a prize worth 3K+++

    This year, there is the right to play in Florida, and the purchase of your ticket. A prize, nice and all, but not the same as last year.

    Anyone who is x-0 at Nats this year and stops due to their ranking should have their head examined.

    x-1, ok, maybe you are hedging your bet, but until you lose, you have to shoot for that illustrious star, the top 4 getting a paid trip.

    Good luck to all!

    Vince
     
  5. charchar

    charchar New Member

    can u earn more than 8 points for winning? If i lose to someone like 1850 with my rating about how much rating will i lose?(below on my signature) if i lose to someone under 1700 how much would i lose and 1600? because i dont really get this,
     
  6. Serebii1997J

    Serebii1997J New Member

    Nope. not possible to gain more than the K Value
     
  7. charchar

    charchar New Member

    alright so 8 is the limit so does that mean u can only lose up to 8?
     
  8. Cyrus

    Cyrus Iron Chef - Master Emeritus

    Yup, he said it. If you guys haven't been listening to me, then listen to Vince. X-0 drop, 0-X drop, or passing on nats entirely just doesn't seem like a wise move.
     
  9. charchar

    charchar New Member

    thanks now i understand a little better.
     
  10. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    Many top players here in our state are planning just that x-0 and drop at Nationals. At least here in Washington no one really cares much about Nationals other then using it to secure there place in Worlds. Infact the #1 player in masters is considering not even playing in another official match all year until Worlds. And who can blame them. Doing well in nationals is all well and good but as you know, PUI never ever makes a promo deck release out of the US Nationals winners deck do they? Worlds is what the Pokemon playing year is all about.. Everything else is just about earning the right to compete in the world Championship, most important tournament of the year.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2008
  11. TheDarkTwins

    TheDarkTwins Active Member

    Doesnt he have to actually play to get the benefits he won from regionals? Unless he plans on not going to Origins at all.

    Drew
     
  12. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    Last year he lost out on worlds because he made the top cut at Nationals and lost in the T32 (It turned out that if he had finished 33rd in swiss he would have gotten the ranking invite) I know for sure that he is not playing in any battle roads this year although I would not be surprised if he decides to X-0 Nationals after all. I know he is going to Origins as he has many friends that he only sees there and at Worlds.
     
  13. Scizor

    Scizor New Member

    It should be a requirement to play in Nationals to recieve an invite. I'm going to go on record and say Paul is a moron if he doesn't play a National round with a ridiculous rating that would require him like 4-5ing to miss an invite. It wouldn't make any sense whatsoever.

    I just don't get some people sometimes. Do people NOT want to win Nationals? Do they think Worlds is EASIER? I don't think I could ever bring myself to a 3-0 drop for even a Worlds invite. What if that is YOUR event? What if it's "the one"? You just threw it away. You have to be doing SOMETHING right if you're 3-0. Have some freaking confidence. Dropping just makes me sick. You're speaking for all of WA it seems JandPDS, and isn't your guy's thing "you play to win the game"? So much for that.

    Play it out people, this is freaking ridiculous. It's a game.
     
  14. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    Yes, but it is no big deal to say..: :"Hey I competed in Nationals this year" But being able to say "Hey I participated in Worlds this year" is huge in comparison. That you were a Worlds competitor is way more prestigious then just playing in a Nationals event. Worlds is the only tournament of the year that you need to be invited to participate in. That is why being able to play in worlds is so important it is the exclusivity of the event that makes it so special. Nationals is Nationals, but Worlds is Worlds.
     
  15. meganium45

    meganium45 Active Member

    There are so few times, in ANYONE'S life that they have the chance to be declared the best in the Nation at anything.

    ANYTHING.

    To survive the gauntlet that is Nationals, and to end up with the top prize, is priceless.

    You go down in history as a truly elite player, which cannot be taken away.

    Sure, Worlds is a bigger prize, but do not discount Nationals.

    Have you noticed that the scholarship for being #1 at US Nationals is the same as being #2 in the World?

    It MEANS something!

    Vince
     
  16. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    I am not discounting Nationals, anyone who wins that event has every right to be extremely proud of that accomplishment, but it is not the top prize of the year. As for scholarship I guess that cool and everything, but in Addition to the Scholarship the #2 worlds player has the chance to have their deck immortalized, something that has never happened to a National winners deck.

    Just like a City Championship is less important then a State, and a State Championship is less important then a Regional. Nationals is and always will be Secondary to Worlds. Nationals is and always will be the biggest "Open" of the year it will never become the most important tournament as long as Worlds exists. All the top players here have the same goal all year long, and that has nothing to do with necessarily doing well at Nationals. All year long the goal is to play well enough to be able to participate in Worlds. One local player skipped Nats last year because he did not wish to jeopardize his spot at Worlds. I believe he would do so again this year if he is in a similar situation. And this year with the top 35-41 ranked players getting invites into worlds I feel that you will see even more top players either sit out or drop after a few rounds once they feel that there spot is secure. Remember there was one Top 10 Masters player last year who lost his invite to worlds by playing in Nationals. I do not see anyone making that mistake this year.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2008
  17. TheDarkTwins

    TheDarkTwins Active Member

    I am not sure what I feel the "hardest" event is.

    I do know the top 3 imo are the following -

    Nationals
    Worlds
    Grinder

    I am not sure how I would rank them, but I want to lean towards the Grinder as the hardest because there is just so much pressure as it is your last oppurtunity to get into Worlds.

    Drew
     
  18. Jaeger

    Jaeger New Member

    Don't quote me on this but Paul could more than likely lose 2 games at Nats and still get an invite. Thats just by looking at the rankings, I don't know how to caculate the impact of Nationals on your rankings I would ask Ross about that apparently he figured it all up last year.

    Back to back posts merged. The following information has been added:

    -Agreed
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2008
  19. Scizor

    Scizor New Member

    I'm positive that Paul could go 5-4 and COMFORTABLY get an invite. His lead is ridiculous. It isn't "safe" for him to sit out, it's just plain ILLOGICAL for him not to play.

    So what if one player lost their spot last year. They gave it a shot. At least they played in Nationals.

    I've been in the T40 since States and there is no way I'm acting like someone afraid of a little competition at National and 3-0 droping to get an unpaid invite/trip to Worlds. Playing in Worlds is not the end all, be all to me either. Besides, if one has success at an event like Nats, they're going to be playing in Worlds anyways.

    Finally, Drew - I think the Grinder is going to be the hardest this year considering it is like another US Nationals Swiss. 9 rounds and the higher 7-2s, 8-1s and 9-0 will qualify for Worlds. That's basically going to be the case for invites prior to the Grinder through US Nats for those who are decently rated as it is. The thing is, the Grinder is the last tournament before Worlds and will be loaded with talent from all over the World.
     
  20. JandPDS

    JandPDS New Member

    And that last line I completely and totally agree with 100%, and because of that very fact is why each year I choose to play in the Grinder over particpating in Nationals.
     

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