what are the odds?

Discussion in 'Random Topic Center' started by yoyofsho16, Apr 23, 2008.

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  1. yoyofsho16

    yoyofsho16 New Member

    I hope you guys are good with math, cuz i have a question.

    two of my friends were playing. Friend 1 plays a magmortar deck, with togekiss.

    Turn 1
    [active unown G] [Benched magmar (drew this turn)]

    [Togekiss][Rare Candy][Fire Energy][Bebe's Search][Fire Energy][Scramble Energy]

    Attatches fire to Unown G. Ends turn.

    Turn 2
    Same, but G has the fire from last turn.

    Same, but -1 fire energy, and he just drew magmortar.

    He plays bebes to get togepi, and puts one fire at the top of his deck. Rare candys to togekiss, and attatches 8 fires to magmar. Retreats G for magmar, then evolves to mortar for knockout.

    Now, my friend has the following related cards in his deck (in total):
    -2 bebes search
    -4 magmar
    -3 magmortar
    -3 togekiss
    -2 rare candy

    if one of each of these was required to get 'kiss and magmortar by turn 2, what is the probability of having all of those cards?
  2. Mystery Thing

    Mystery Thing Administrator

    With those in your deck (and thus 46 other cards), and assuming none of those 14 cards are any of your prizes, the odds of getting 1 of each of those 5 cards and any other four cards in your starting 7 plus first two draws is 3.3%

    Obviously the odds drop off even more if one (or more) of those 14 are prized.

    For the record, if you bump the candy and bebe's up to 4 of each, it goes up to 8.9%.
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2008
  3. Mew*

    Mew* Active Member

    I'll put it in simpler terms.

    Mad lucky :lol:
  4. yoyofsho16

    yoyofsho16 New Member

    well, thanks, but isnt your answer a bit off? i might not know EXACTLY how to calculate this, but wouldnt the odds me higher the more you drew?
  5. Mystery Thing

    Mystery Thing Administrator


    You'll have 6 types of cards:
    2:1 Bebe's Search (2 in the deck, you need 1)
    2:1 Rare Candy
    4:1 Magmar
    3:1 Magmorter
    3:1 Togikiss
    46:6 Other (46 cards that aren't those 5 types, and you need 6 of them for your prizes)

    You'll then want to have it draw 15 cards - 7 to start, 6 prizes, and 2 more for each of your first two turns.

    In reality, the odds are actually less than 3.3% - it's not good enough to have ANY combination of those cards, as none of the 5 you must draw can be in cards 8-13 of that sequence of 15. Even if you can guarantee that the 6 prize cards are independent and will not be anything you must draw, you're left with:

    2:1 Bebe's Search
    2:1 Rare Candy
    4:1 Magmar
    3:1 Magmorter
    3:1 Togikiss
    40:0 Other (40 non-prize cards in your deck, but you don't need to draw any of them)

    Obviously your draw window is now down to 9 cards. And that gives you a whopping 0.39% chance.

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