Rai
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Well, a quick sweep of the thread has some interesting results. I've posted the tallies at the bottom, with results sorted and in what seems to be a fairly reasonable tier list. The huge chunk of text in the middle is some quick analysis and thoughts of my own on this.
Conventions: I have 432 reported positions in the top 4 currently, to keep everything in perspective. All results are for masters. Because there honestly is very little difference between 3rd and 4th, I refer to them as one position, “Runner Up”. I have omitted most decks that only appear once, and if you want to know how variants did, you'll have to put up with actually reading the huge paragraphs.
Analysis paragraphs are made in order of descending popularity (total count of instances that the deck appeared), not on how I placed them in tiers. I've bolded the name of the deck each paragraph centers around, to make it easier to browse.
First off, Gengar's clearly the strongest deck in the format. Gengar has overall taken 82 spots in the top 4... That means 19% of all decks played were Gengar. It's also dramatically larger then any other deck in every category, with twice as many wins as the next largest deck (Beedrill).
The most popular variant is by far Mother Gengar, with 16 first places of its own and comprising 35 of the instances of Gengar. That means 43% of all of the Gengar decks played were Mother Gengar.
Other variants of Gengar were thinly scattered around. Excluding GeChamp, the other two most popular variants were Gengar/Crobat and Gengar/Dusknoir which both appeared 5 times. To be honest, I personally expect Crobat as a standard trick in a Gengar deck, so that means the only other significant variant is Gengar/Dusknoir, which took first place once, second place once, and runner up three times (a mere 6% of all Gengars were specified as each of those two :/)
The next largest deck in the format was Beedrill, appearing 49 times in the top 4. Notice the HUGE gap between Beedrill's 49 and Gengar's 82. Most of these were Runner up though, with 41% of all Beedrills coming as “Runner Up”... That suggests to me that its success comes from just being highly played, though that's a very good reason to beware Beedrill.
Next is Flygon... With me counting at least 15 variations of Flygon, to say its versatile is an understatement. Overall Flygon appeared very slightly less often then Beedrill (only 44 times instead of 49), and it overall took first less then Beedrill (11 times instead of 19). That being said, Flygon took second more times then any other deck (besides Gengar) which suggests to me that its very good, but not against Gengar (which is unfortunate, being bad against the most popular deck in the format :/).
The most popular variations were Manectric and Weavile (4 times each with each taking second twice), but neither ever took first place. Same is true of Nidoqueen (3 times, all were second place though).
The variation that took first place the most (besides straight Flygon) was Machamp, coming in first two times and running up once. Typholosion was only seen once, and took first the one time it appeared which means it was probably overlooked (though seeing as how I played that deck, I can say from experience that it autolooses to Gengar and is thus probably not the absolute best version).
I'm a tad mystified at the 7 straight Flygons that took first place. Clearly it combos with a lot of stuff, which leads me to think that partners were withheld when reporting results.
Oh, and someone asked about Flygon/Dusknoir. Its appeared twice, and took runner up both times. Not particularly stellar in the US thus far.
Machamp takes 4th place on the popular decks, and I'm mentioning GeChamp here while I'm at it (I excluded GeChamp from the counts of both Gengar and Machamp wins). Most of the Machamp appearances were Runner Up, but was not as heavilly leaning towards runner up as Beedrill. GeChamp had a higher 1st place percentage then straight Machamp, but appeared less frequently.
Kingdra actually shows up more times then straight Machamp, with 24 instances instead of 20, but including GeChamp with Machamp would put it over Kingdra. It did tie with Machamp for how many first place finishes, however like Beedrill, a lot of the other appearances were runner up with 46% of its instances being runner up. Certainly quite the shift from Fall Battle Roads and Cities... Personally, I've seen a lot of Kingdras played at Spring Battle Roads, and the fact that such a high percentage of the instances of Kingdra were runner up suggests to me that its at best a tier 2 deck now. Certainly Luxray GL has quite a bit to do with this, but I'd also name Nidoqueen as a huge reason why the deck has fallen from the top. Heck, its first place percentage is technically low enough that by my scale, I'd put it at Tier 3, but its sheer popularity makes it not a negligible opponent (and thus tier 2).
Surprisingly, Plox got played more then any of the single SP Varients. It took 9 first places which is more then Kingdra, Machamp, and Gechamp, it took 4 second place, and took 6 runner ups for 19 total apperances. This and Luxray/Infernape are actually the only decks with over 50% 1st place appearances (even Gengar is only 42% first place) that showed up more then 10 times, which tells me that its a top tier deck that was underplayed.
I'll clump the SP decks together here (due to highly similar engines, highly similar weaknesses, etc. etc.) Dialga G took the most appearances, and Infernape/Luxray appeared only one time less then straight Dialga G but with more first place finishes. As noted with Plox, Infernape/Luxray is the other deck with over 50% first place rate, and I seem to recall most of those wins appearing in later Battle Roads. I'd regard Infernape/Luxray as a late bloomer, and potentially one of the top decks in the format.
Dialga/Palkia still made quite a few appearances, but nowhere near as frequent as Dialga G alone.
On another note, “Toolbox” (quite the descriptive name) appeared 15 times... But 47% of those appearances were runner up, which is very similar to Kingdra. That'd make it considerably less threatening then Luxray/Infernape, or even Dialga/Palkia, in my opinion.
Gallade 4 and Palkia G, though both were hyped, really didn't appear all that often. The few instances that they appeared in the top though were fairly high placing. Perhaps they're just one of the decks that many metagames kill :/
The only other deck with over 10 appearances was Tyranitar... Which reminds me that although I implied it in a later post, all of my listings of Tyranitar (3 first places and none other
) really should have been Tyranitar/Nidoqueen. But oh well.
Overall, Tyranitar showed up 14 times which is about as much as Toolbox. Interestingly enough, it took first place 5 times... But 4 of those were Tyranitar/Nidoqueen, which are the only 4 times that Queen shows up as a partner to Ttar. I'd say a solid tier 2 is very plausible for this deck, considering that no other deck has a variant with 100% win rate that won multiple times. (Although I know my deck that won 3 times in a row went 2-3 one day later with no changes. So to say Ttar's BDIF is far from the truth, but underrated is certainly accurate)
As for surprises... Electivire/Manectric's one of very few decks that actually appeared with a 100% 1st place rate (2 first places out of only 2 appearances). The others are Toxitank (also only 2 appearances), Starmie/Uxie/Crobat, Darkrai/Cacnea and Garchomp (one appearance each for each of those). Perhaps flukes, perhaps genius. Who knows?
I'd also say don't forget about the lone Nidoqueen (only 3 appearances but one of those was a first place), Porygon-Z (which in 8 appearances took 4 second places and 2 first places), Regigigias (4 second places and 1 runner up, despite a LOT of matchups seeming awful is interesting), Blaziken (4 apparances and 2 of 'em were first place), Leafeon Variations (which appeared 7 times and 5 of those were second places), and Scizor/Cherrim (which actually took first place once, second place twice, and runner up three times... Which looks hilarious on a chart).
Eeveelutions and Hippowdon were both hyped mildly by the Gym and... really don't have anything to show for themselves. Even Ampharos and BlastCatty did better :/ Shiftry did relatively mediocre too.
So it appears that the data supports a list of... (Note that they are in order within the tier as well)
Tier 1 (Had over 40% first place rate, or over 40 instances of the deck. Implies very good play):
Tier 2 (Between 40% and 30% first place rate and between 40 and 10 instances of the deck. Implies can be good if with the right list and right player but proven weaker then the Tier 1 decks):
Tier 3 (Less then 10 instances of the deck or under 30% first place rate. Implies isn't played frequently enough to be a worry, or just isn't particularly strong):
Tier 4 (Appeared only once or 0% first place rate. If I actually listed something here, it means I suspect untapped potential):
Please let me know if my counts seem inaccurate or if I forgot something significant. It'd also be interesting to see other's thoughts, especially with US Nationals this weekend.
Conventions: I have 432 reported positions in the top 4 currently, to keep everything in perspective. All results are for masters. Because there honestly is very little difference between 3rd and 4th, I refer to them as one position, “Runner Up”. I have omitted most decks that only appear once, and if you want to know how variants did, you'll have to put up with actually reading the huge paragraphs.
Analysis paragraphs are made in order of descending popularity (total count of instances that the deck appeared), not on how I placed them in tiers. I've bolded the name of the deck each paragraph centers around, to make it easier to browse.
First off, Gengar's clearly the strongest deck in the format. Gengar has overall taken 82 spots in the top 4... That means 19% of all decks played were Gengar. It's also dramatically larger then any other deck in every category, with twice as many wins as the next largest deck (Beedrill).
The most popular variant is by far Mother Gengar, with 16 first places of its own and comprising 35 of the instances of Gengar. That means 43% of all of the Gengar decks played were Mother Gengar.
Other variants of Gengar were thinly scattered around. Excluding GeChamp, the other two most popular variants were Gengar/Crobat and Gengar/Dusknoir which both appeared 5 times. To be honest, I personally expect Crobat as a standard trick in a Gengar deck, so that means the only other significant variant is Gengar/Dusknoir, which took first place once, second place once, and runner up three times (a mere 6% of all Gengars were specified as each of those two :/)
The next largest deck in the format was Beedrill, appearing 49 times in the top 4. Notice the HUGE gap between Beedrill's 49 and Gengar's 82. Most of these were Runner up though, with 41% of all Beedrills coming as “Runner Up”... That suggests to me that its success comes from just being highly played, though that's a very good reason to beware Beedrill.
Next is Flygon... With me counting at least 15 variations of Flygon, to say its versatile is an understatement. Overall Flygon appeared very slightly less often then Beedrill (only 44 times instead of 49), and it overall took first less then Beedrill (11 times instead of 19). That being said, Flygon took second more times then any other deck (besides Gengar) which suggests to me that its very good, but not against Gengar (which is unfortunate, being bad against the most popular deck in the format :/).
The most popular variations were Manectric and Weavile (4 times each with each taking second twice), but neither ever took first place. Same is true of Nidoqueen (3 times, all were second place though).
The variation that took first place the most (besides straight Flygon) was Machamp, coming in first two times and running up once. Typholosion was only seen once, and took first the one time it appeared which means it was probably overlooked (though seeing as how I played that deck, I can say from experience that it autolooses to Gengar and is thus probably not the absolute best version).
I'm a tad mystified at the 7 straight Flygons that took first place. Clearly it combos with a lot of stuff, which leads me to think that partners were withheld when reporting results.
Oh, and someone asked about Flygon/Dusknoir. Its appeared twice, and took runner up both times. Not particularly stellar in the US thus far.
Machamp takes 4th place on the popular decks, and I'm mentioning GeChamp here while I'm at it (I excluded GeChamp from the counts of both Gengar and Machamp wins). Most of the Machamp appearances were Runner Up, but was not as heavilly leaning towards runner up as Beedrill. GeChamp had a higher 1st place percentage then straight Machamp, but appeared less frequently.
Kingdra actually shows up more times then straight Machamp, with 24 instances instead of 20, but including GeChamp with Machamp would put it over Kingdra. It did tie with Machamp for how many first place finishes, however like Beedrill, a lot of the other appearances were runner up with 46% of its instances being runner up. Certainly quite the shift from Fall Battle Roads and Cities... Personally, I've seen a lot of Kingdras played at Spring Battle Roads, and the fact that such a high percentage of the instances of Kingdra were runner up suggests to me that its at best a tier 2 deck now. Certainly Luxray GL has quite a bit to do with this, but I'd also name Nidoqueen as a huge reason why the deck has fallen from the top. Heck, its first place percentage is technically low enough that by my scale, I'd put it at Tier 3, but its sheer popularity makes it not a negligible opponent (and thus tier 2).
Surprisingly, Plox got played more then any of the single SP Varients. It took 9 first places which is more then Kingdra, Machamp, and Gechamp, it took 4 second place, and took 6 runner ups for 19 total apperances. This and Luxray/Infernape are actually the only decks with over 50% 1st place appearances (even Gengar is only 42% first place) that showed up more then 10 times, which tells me that its a top tier deck that was underplayed.
I'll clump the SP decks together here (due to highly similar engines, highly similar weaknesses, etc. etc.) Dialga G took the most appearances, and Infernape/Luxray appeared only one time less then straight Dialga G but with more first place finishes. As noted with Plox, Infernape/Luxray is the other deck with over 50% first place rate, and I seem to recall most of those wins appearing in later Battle Roads. I'd regard Infernape/Luxray as a late bloomer, and potentially one of the top decks in the format.
Dialga/Palkia still made quite a few appearances, but nowhere near as frequent as Dialga G alone.
On another note, “Toolbox” (quite the descriptive name) appeared 15 times... But 47% of those appearances were runner up, which is very similar to Kingdra. That'd make it considerably less threatening then Luxray/Infernape, or even Dialga/Palkia, in my opinion.
Gallade 4 and Palkia G, though both were hyped, really didn't appear all that often. The few instances that they appeared in the top though were fairly high placing. Perhaps they're just one of the decks that many metagames kill :/
The only other deck with over 10 appearances was Tyranitar... Which reminds me that although I implied it in a later post, all of my listings of Tyranitar (3 first places and none other
) really should have been Tyranitar/Nidoqueen. But oh well. Overall, Tyranitar showed up 14 times which is about as much as Toolbox. Interestingly enough, it took first place 5 times... But 4 of those were Tyranitar/Nidoqueen, which are the only 4 times that Queen shows up as a partner to Ttar. I'd say a solid tier 2 is very plausible for this deck, considering that no other deck has a variant with 100% win rate that won multiple times. (Although I know my deck that won 3 times in a row went 2-3 one day later with no changes. So to say Ttar's BDIF is far from the truth, but underrated is certainly accurate)
As for surprises... Electivire/Manectric's one of very few decks that actually appeared with a 100% 1st place rate (2 first places out of only 2 appearances). The others are Toxitank (also only 2 appearances), Starmie/Uxie/Crobat, Darkrai/Cacnea and Garchomp (one appearance each for each of those). Perhaps flukes, perhaps genius. Who knows?
I'd also say don't forget about the lone Nidoqueen (only 3 appearances but one of those was a first place), Porygon-Z (which in 8 appearances took 4 second places and 2 first places), Regigigias (4 second places and 1 runner up, despite a LOT of matchups seeming awful is interesting), Blaziken (4 apparances and 2 of 'em were first place), Leafeon Variations (which appeared 7 times and 5 of those were second places), and Scizor/Cherrim (which actually took first place once, second place twice, and runner up three times... Which looks hilarious on a chart).
Eeveelutions and Hippowdon were both hyped mildly by the Gym and... really don't have anything to show for themselves. Even Ampharos and BlastCatty did better :/ Shiftry did relatively mediocre too.
So it appears that the data supports a list of... (Note that they are in order within the tier as well)
Tier 1 (Had over 40% first place rate, or over 40 instances of the deck. Implies very good play):
- Gengar (34 first, 22 second, 26 runner up. 82 Total, 41% first place)
- Beedrill (15 first, 14 second, 20 runner up. 49 Total, 30% first place)
- Flygon (11 first, 19 second, 14 runner up. 44 Total, 25% first place)
- Luxray/Infernape (9 first, 2 second, 6 runner up. 17 total, 53% first place)
- Plox (9 first, 4 second, 6 runner up. 19 total, 47% first place)
- GeChamp (6 first, 3 second, 5 runner up. 14 total, 43% first place)
Tier 2 (Between 40% and 30% first place rate and between 40 and 10 instances of the deck. Implies can be good if with the right list and right player but proven weaker then the Tier 1 decks):
- Machamp (7 first, 5 second, 8 runner up. 20 Total, 35% first place)
- Dialga G (6 first, 7 second, 5 runner up. 18 total, 33% first place)
- Dialga/Palkia (5 first, 3 second, 4 runner up. 13 total, 38% first place)
- Tyranitar (5 first, 5 second, 4 runner up. 14 total, 35% first place)
- Kingdra (7 first, 6 second, 11 runner up. 24 total, 29% first place) [By my definition should be Tier 3. Was bumped to Tier 2 due to huge popularity]
Tier 3 (Less then 10 instances of the deck or under 30% first place rate. Implies isn't played frequently enough to be a worry, or just isn't particularly strong):
- Blaziken (2 first, 1 second, 1 runner up. 4 total, 50% first place)
- Palkia G (3 first, 2 second, 2 runner up. 7 total, 43% first place)
- Infernape 4 (3 first, 2 second, 3 runner up. 8 total, 38% first place)
- Luxray GL (3 first, 5 runner up. 8 total, 38% first place)
- Gallade 4 (3 first, 2 second, 4 runner up. 9 total, 33% first place)
- Porygon-Z (2 first, 4 second, 2 runner up. 8 total, 25% first place)
- Nidoqueen (1 first, 2 runner up. 3 total, 33% first place)
- SP Toolbox (4 first, 4 second, 7 runner up. 15 total, 27% first place)
- Dusknoir (1 first, 1 second, 3 runner up. 5 total, 20% first place)
- Scizor/Cherrim (1 first, 2 second, 3 runner up. 6 total, 17% first place)
- Darkrai G (2 first, 1 second. 3 total, 66% first place)
- AMU (1 first, 2 runner up. 3 total, 33% first place)
- Toxitank (2 first. 2 total, 100% first place)
- Electivire/Manectric (2 first. 2 total, 100% first place)
Tier 4 (Appeared only once or 0% first place rate. If I actually listed something here, it means I suspect untapped potential):
- Garchomp (1 first. 1 total, 100% first place)
- Regigigias (4 second, 1 runner up. 5 total, 0% first place)
- Leafeon (5 second, 2 runner up. 7 total, 0% first place)
- Everything Else
Please let me know if my counts seem inaccurate or if I forgot something significant. It'd also be interesting to see other's thoughts, especially with US Nationals this weekend.
