Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Booster Box Ratios & Pokemon EX

Miamisportsfan45

Miamisportsfan45

Active Member
Instead of having this discussion take place on a trade thread this time around, I figured this would be the place to gather information for previous set releases as well as upcoming set releases. :lol:

If this is not the correct place to have this thread, please move it to the appropriate location. However, I felt that it fits into this forum appropriately because of the multiple directions this topic will expound into.

Anyway, moving on with the thread...

What exactly are the odds of getting particular cards in a box? For instance, how many Full Arts, Ultra Rares, Holo Rares, Rares, Particular, wanted or popular Uncommons, Particular Reverse Foils/Holos, etc.

What are the odds of making your money back or making your money's worth by buying a box?
Lastly...
Using former ex knowledge as well as recent HS and BW box odds, how can we apply the odds and ratios of the last few generations to the new EX releases as they're being released as additional FA's as well?
_________________________________________________

I've been considering buying a box of NEXT Destinies lately, so I thought I'd ask where I may get the best-answer results here on the gym. I felt this discussion was needed to get others opinions and gather some research before investing blindly.

Thanks & discuss!

~MSF
 
BBmaster said:
its 2 full arts and the meowth or pikachu is 1 in every 1-2 boxes if i remember correctly
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Aren't the Meowth and Pikachu's considered Secret Rares? So wouldn't they be pulled in addition to the normal Full Art minimum? Or would they be pulled in place of the FA minimum?
 
If you want my personal opinion Non FA will be Prime rarity (5-6 per box) and FA will be Legend rarity (2-3 per box). FA could also be 2 per box like our current sets.
 
I agree with King Piplup's prediction.

And yes, Meowth/Pikachu were 1 in 3 boxes and I'm pretty sure they didn't affect the full art rate.
 
Miamisportsfan45 said:
What exactly are the odds of getting particular cards in a box? For instance, how many Full Arts, Ultra Rares, Holo Rares, Rares, Particular, wanted or popular Uncommons, Particular Reverse Foils/Holos, etc.
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Boxes yield about 4 of every uncommon, I'd guess 5-6 of every common, and they've been good at giving almost a full set of rares and holos in the last few sets. The RH cards are totally random. The Full Art ratio has been 2 per box on average. Secret Rares (Pikachu in B/W and Meowth in NV) were 1 in 3 boxes iirc.

Miamisportsfan45 said:
What are the odds of making your money back or making your money's worth by buying a box?
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I would say very good. Especially with the inclusion of code cards. Codes are easy to sell for $.50 each, maybe up to $.70, which gives you between 20 and 30 dollars right there. If there is a guaranteed (or virtually guaranteed) Mewtwo EX in every box like the Primes were, then there is another at least $20 right there. You can sell the RH cards and some of the holos fairly easily if you know where to look.

I have sold all of the codes, and about 20 bucks worth of RH, rares, and holos from my NV box, and still kept the playable cards, playsets of the good stuff (N, Eviolite, Durant, Eelektrik, etc), and Full Arts. I probably sold about $40 or so from the box, making it almost half price. If I sold everything, including the metagame cards, I'm fairly sure I'd make my money back, and probably a $10 profit or so if I played my cards right.

Miamisportsfan45 said:
Using former ex knowledge as well as recent HS and BW box odds, how can we apply the odds and ratios of the last few generations to the new EX releases as they're being released as additional FA's as well?
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This is a hard question.

ex cards were about as rare as Full Arts I think, but it depended on how many were in a set. Holon Phantoms had 3 exs and you'd get like 1 per box. Legend Maker had 7 and you'd get 2 per box and 1 star in every 3 boxes. Unseen Forces had 12 exs, and I think it yielded more ex per box but I'm not 100% sure.

HGSS Primes were like 6 per box on average, with most sets yielding all primes (except HS Triumphant which had 8 primes). BW has 2 Full Arts per box.

exs and Primes were worth more than the Full Arts, mainly because they weren't printed as regular cards also (Reshiram and Zekrom were printed way too much, so their value is lower).

I'd guess that no matter how many are in a box, EXs are gonna go for $20 and up, and the good ones like Mewtwo are gonna be even more, even if they're Full Arts also.

So, we can't really apply ratios well. Sometimes (with the primes) the secret rare cards are plentiful in a set, and you get all of them in a box. Others (old exs and NV Full Arts) only give you a set number, and you don't get all of the secret rares from a set with one box. We'll just have to wait and see.

My guess is 2-3 EX in a box, and the Full Art EXs are either 1 per box, or 1 every 3 like the Star cards in the ex series were.
 
King Piplup said:
If you want my personal opinion Non FA will be Prime rarity (5-6 per box) and FA will be Legend rarity (2-3 per box). FA could also be 2 per box like our current sets.
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5-6 EX's per box? You really think so? I remember once opening a box of Unseen Forces and only pulled two to three ex's total at that point in time. But now we have Full Art EX's coming as well, so... That kind of tosses history aside for the moment.
Crinus said:
Some boxes can pull more than 2 FAs, I know in NV some people has pulled 3.
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Two is the minimum then I take it. Three would most likely be the maximum.
KazamBolt said:
Boxes yield about 4 of every uncommon, I'd guess 5-6 of every common, and they've been good at giving almost a full set of rares and holos in the last few sets. The RH cards are totally random. The Full Art ratio has been 2 per box on average. Secret Rares (Pikachu in B/W and Meowth in NV) were 1 in 3 boxes iirc.
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So are we seeing 2-3 EX's total? Or would we see 5-6 EX's total with 2 additional FA EX's?


KazamBolt said:
I would say very good. Especially with the inclusion of code cards. Codes are easy to sell for $.50 each, maybe up to $.70, which gives you between 20 and 30 dollars right there. If there is a guaranteed (or virtually guaranteed) Mewtwo EX in every box like the Primes were, then there is another at least $20 right there. You can sell the RH cards and some of the holos fairly easily if you know where to look.

I have sold all of the codes, and about 20 bucks worth of RH, rares, and holos from my NV box, and still kept the playable cards, playsets of the good stuff (N, Eviolite, Durant, Eelektrik, etc), and Full Arts. I probably sold about $40 or so from the box, making it almost half price. If I sold everything, including the metagame cards, I'm fairly sure I'd make my money back, and probably a $10 profit or so if I played my cards right.
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This is good to know, thanks for the information. I figured this is the "Set to get" at the moment, especially with all the hype of the EX's and the shift the format is going to experience shortly.


KazamBolt said:
This is a hard question.

ex cards were about as rare as Full Arts I think, but it depended on how many were in a set. Holon Phantoms had 3 exs and you'd get like 1 per box. Legend Maker had 7 and you'd get 2 per box and 1 star in every 3 boxes. Unseen Forces had 12 exs, and I think it yielded more ex per box but I'm not 100% sure.

HGSS Primes were like 6 per box on average, with most sets yielding all primes (except HS Triumphant which had 8 primes). BW has 2 Full Arts per box.

exs and Primes were worth more than the Full Arts, mainly because they weren't printed as regular cards also (Reshiram and Zekrom were printed way too much, so their value is lower).

I'd guess that no matter how many are in a box, EXs are gonna go for $20 and up, and the good ones like Mewtwo are gonna be even more, even if they're Full Arts also.

So, we can't really apply ratios well. Sometimes (with the primes) the secret rare cards are plentiful in a set, and you get all of them in a box. Others (old exs and NV Full Arts) only give you a set number, and you don't get all of the secret rares from a set with one box. We'll just have to wait and see.

My guess is 2-3 EX in a box, and the Full Art EXs are either 1 per box, or 1 every 3 like the Star cards in the ex series were.
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Unseen Forces had 3 EX's per box. I remember opening one a while back. But then again, Full Art's were also non-existent at that time as well.
 
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delta species was also the same as holon phantoms 1 ex per box.unseen forces u were guarantee at least 3 ex's from what i remember seeing my friends open their boxes and the gold stars were guarentee 1 in every 2 boxes.but then again it also depends on the set cause now we also got full arts in a box with exs
 
I disagree with the idea of Primes being more valuable than Full Arts. Unless an extremely overhyped metagame card (i.e., Yanmega, Magnezone, Mew, Gengar), very few of the Primes ever broke $9-10, whereas that's more or less the starting point for any of the current FAs, even ones like Virizion and Terrakion. And while it's true that FAs are reprints, an FA is also 3x as hard to pull as a Prime...
 
Miamisportsfan45 said:
5-6 EX's per box? You really think so? I remember once opening a box of Unseen Forces and only pulled two to three ex's total at that point in time. But now we have Full Art EX's coming as well, so... That kind of tosses history aside for the moment.
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I remember reading that in Japan the non-FA EXs were the same rarity as a holo rare. With the FA EXs being the same rarity as previous FAs. Someone feel free to correct me if I heard wrong.
 
yea thats about right the japanese ex's were the same ratio as holos and the FA ex's were either 1 in a box or you dont get a FA at all.
 
BBmaster said:
yea thats about right the japanese ex's were the same ratio as holos and the FA ex's were either 1 in a box or you dont get a FA at all.
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Thanks. What about non-FA EXs? Was it also true that they were the same rarity as a normal holo rare?
 
from what I've seen japanese boxes normally contain 2-3 non FA EX's per box. So I'd say rarer than a regular holo, but not too rare.
 
fizzycat said:
from what I've seen japanese boxes normally contain 2-3 non FA EX's per box. So I'd say rarer than a regular holo, but not too rare.
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Well Japanese sets lately have had about 7-8 holo rares in each set. And you get one in every 3 packs. And there are 20 packs in a Japanese box. So with 3-4 different EXs per set, getting 2-3 non-FA EXs per box seems to be about right if they are as rare as holo rares since that would make 11 different holo rares per box including the EXs.
 
The chances of making your money back on the past few sets if you opened a box is none. There is absolutely no way that any of the B/W sets will get you your money back. It's just not going to happen. You can try, and you MIGHT get close if you get an insane box, (2 Kyurem, 2 N, 2 Victini), but even so you are most likely going to be short. That above scenario might be the only way you might make a tiny bit of money, but other than that, it's just not going to happen. The next set, depending on the ratio they make the EX Pokemon will really depend on what happens. If the FA are 2 per box, but the 8 Ex are 2-3 per box than maybe it will be worth something. It's going to be nice to have some cards in the next set that might actually hold value.

Drew
 
Frost said:
I disagree with the idea of Primes being more valuable than Full Arts. Unless an extremely overhyped metagame card (i.e., Yanmega, Magnezone, Mew, Gengar), very few of the Primes ever broke $9-10, whereas that's more or less the starting point for any of the current FAs, even ones like Virizion and Terrakion. And while it's true that FAs are reprints, an FA is also 3x as hard to pull as a Prime...
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Actually, at one time, Donphan, Machamp, Gengar, Mew, Magnezone, Yanmega, Tyranitar, Kingdra, and now even maybe Electrode can or could all fetch $10. Now, anyone who's selling a Full Art for $10 that's not Victini, N, or maybe Cobalion is kidding themselves. Reshiram and Zekrom have been printed now 4 times, including the 2 in the set and 2 promos, and will be printed again in the Next Destinies theme decks. And if you know where to sell the Virizion and Terrakion for $10, let me know.

Oh, and I disagree with the saying that a FA is 3x as hard to pull as a Prime. Maybe in one individual pack, yeah. But in a box, you get all the Primes in a box of HGSS and all the Full Arts in a box of BW or EP. So that's not exactly a true statement.
 
TheDarkTwins said:
The chances of making your money back on the past few sets if you opened a box is none. There is absolutely no way that any of the B/W sets will get you your money back. It's just not going to happen. You can try, and you MIGHT get close if you get an insane box, (2 Kyurem, 2 N, 2 Victini), but even so you are most likely going to be short. That above scenario might be the only way you might make a tiny bit of money, but other than that, it's just not going to happen. The next set, depending on the ratio they make the EX Pokemon will really depend on what happens. If the FA are 2 per box, but the 8 Ex are 2-3 per box than maybe it will be worth something. It's going to be nice to have some cards in the next set that might actually hold value.

Drew
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collectors will pay the top dollar for specific cards until they are released in the states.as of right now the most expensive card in the japanese b/w era is the new gold catcher.you might make your money back with commons uncommons all that just some not all of it.
 
Skitty said:
I remember reading that in Japan the non-FA EXs were the same rarity as a holo rare. With the FA EXs being the same rarity as previous FAs. Someone feel free to correct me if I heard wrong.
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But do you think this will actually hold up? I mean, the sets aren't necessarily out internationally yet and the ratios for Japan are for Japan as of right now. Not our versions of the prints. They have much smaller set sizes, so do you think it'll still stay the rarity of the holos?
 
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