You bring forth a good point, about the odds of winning or losing a pokemon match based on donks. I assume you're arguing that depending on your style of deck, going first or second (which is determined by a coin flip or dice roll with 50/50 odds) can nigh-guarantee you a T1 loss with some decks out there.
Lets start looking at these #'s for T1 losses and such. I really need the help of all you math buffs and majors cause i'm a little rusty with probability and statistics.
I've seen the number floating around here that one has 46% chance of starting with a card in a 60 card deck if they play 4 copies of said card.
So lets keep it simple. You want to start with Ambipom G (and not a pokemon with free retreat and then switch to ambipom, or drawing into ambipom if you go first, etc) and you want to start with DCE to get the donk.
Assuming 46% chance of getting said set-up, lets take the 50% of you going first (so your opponent really cant do anything), times the 46% chance of you starting with ambipom G times the 46% chance of also getting a DCE.
The number you get is 10.6%. This roughly means that 1 out of every 9-10 games you will get the scenario I described. Forget that we're not even including the fact that your opponent can start with a basic that has more than 60 hp, or more than one pokemon even!
Are we really getting upset over 10%? (If that)
Btw who play four copies of ambipom G in there deck? lol
Sableye has similar numbers at the expense of doing less damage. (50 dmg with special dark and 40 with basic dark) but he guarantess that you go first. If just including special darks, we eliminated the need to win the coin flip and if you play a deck with 4 special darks and 4 sabeleyes (like sablelock), you have 20% of going first and dealing 50 dmg to the opponents basic.
What if our opponent has a "terribad" start (i dont know how you would figure the odds for that, lol) and we go second with an opportunity to donk which should be better complimented with our ability to use trainers and supporters?
Wow thats a mouthful, but lets keep it simple. If you're going first, you can also take that 46% of starting with any card in your deck that you play 4 copies of and play 4 Call Energy. Lets compare that 46% to our Sableyes 20%. Almost double the chances of completely preventing the donk in comparison to that "nigh-guaranteed" donk.
I think TPCI was onto something when they stopped the rotation at MD and left call energy into the format for next year :wink:
TL
R
Its not as easy to get donks as people think, even with my crappy math as evidence.
PS
Play SP, those basics have a ton of HP and are pretty hard to donk. Plus, I heard SP LOVES call energy too :thumb:
Super Edit: and if we all really hate donks as much as we do, we should ask TPCI to stop making cards that deal 50+ dmg for one energy.