Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Jumpluff

ryanvergel said:
So, combined, it is ~3% of a truly, lonely HOPPIP start
Click to expand...

Ryan,

Your math is involved but off. The hypegeometric distribution is what we are working with. HYPGEODIST(# Basic, Hand of 7, 16 Basic in Deck, 60 card Deck)
# Basics/Prob/Prob(1 or greater)

0 - 9.92% / 0.00%
1 - 29.24% / 32.47%
2 - 33.74% / 37.46%
3 - 19.68% / 21.85%
4 - 6.24% / 6.93%
5 - 1.07% / 1.19%
6 - 0.09% / 0.10%
7 - 0.00% / 0.00%

Thus even with 16 basics, we have 32.47% of starting with only one pokemon. To get to the hoppip start, we just take 4/16ths of that probability since there are 4 hoppips out of 16 basics. Thus the probability of flipping over a solo hopip is 8.12%, if you includ the unown Q, you get 10.15%. If you go first and draw a card, you have 28.3% chance of getting a basic on your top deck, or 71.7% chance of no help.
Probability of starting with 30 HP Donk Me poke and going 2nd is 10.15%
Probability of starting with 30 HP Donk Me poke and going 1st is 7.27% (with the 8th card being a pokemon)

Life is risk, thus I still think we live with these "could be donked" odds all the time, this needs to be compounded with a deck that can donk on T1 and has the cards to do it.
 
Last edited:
Jigsaw: No thanks on the trolling, not biting. There is no player in the game who is "better" than Drew Holton ( he is as good as any other player in the game. ) and my testing against him had remained incredibly favorable with Jumpluff. If your mystery player is mysteriously so good, maybe your Jumpluff player has a lot of room to improve.

And I'll have to empty out my PM box, its been full for quite some time now. Should have it empty in about 15 minutes or so.
 
I found the flaw in Ryan's math -- his 11.67% is derived from a deck running one Hoppip, a factor of him copypasta'ing the math over. Four hoppip + 1 Unown Q is four times as likely to be in the hand as if you ran a single instance of it.

If you multiply Ryan's resultant probability by four and then take into account the fact that Slow Deck did not factor in mulligans, their numbers jibe.
 
prodigal_fanboy said:
I found the flaw in Ryan's math -- his 11.67% is derived from a deck running one Hoppip, a factor of him copypasta'ing the math over. Four hoppip + 1 Unown Q is four times as likely to be in the hand as if you ran a single instance of it. If you multiply Ryan's resultant probability by four and then take into account the fact that Slow Deck did not factor in mulligans, their numbers jibe.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I didn't spend time correcting his error. (BTW, the 2nd column was adjusting for the mulligan). We don't want to make this a math thread. The point is the same, high16 basic count helps offset the lone hoppip start in this donk enviroment. Can it still happen, yes.

The goofy thing about this format is that there are now many ways that a T1 Donk of pokemon 60 HP pokemon, with out having a single turn. DCE, Sableye, Aimpom SP, Crobats, Shuppets, etc. I have lost twice this past year with out having a turn, and having 50 HP pokes being KO'd. I used to not play a extra basic in set up to keep that information tight, with the assumption that not likely a 50 HP basic can be KO'd if they go first.... That obviously isn't true anymore.
 
SLOW DECK said:
Thanks, I didn't spend time correcting his error. (BTW, the 2nd column was adjusting for the mulligan). We don't want to make this a math thread. The point is the same, high16 basic count helps offset the lone hoppip start in this donk enviroment. Can it still happen, yes.

The goofy thing about this format is that there are now many ways that a T1 Donk of pokemon 60 HP pokemon, with out having a single turn. DCE, Sableye, Aimpom SP, Crobats, Shuppets, etc. I have lost twice this past year with out having a turn, and having 50 HP pokes being KO'd. I used to not play a extra basic in set up to keep that information tight, with the assumption that not likely a 50 HP basic can be KO'd if they go first.... That obviously isn't true anymore.
Click to expand...

lesson learned :tongue:

copypasta is metagross.

i lost twice at regionals last year before i drew a single card after starting 4-0. my teammates with identical lists get 1 and 3 respectively (knocking each other out in top 4), while i get shafted due to sableyes and their ridiculous luck (2/3 of my basics have 60 or more HP, and of course they get the special dark every time)

i dont really see jumpluff being and more or less donkable than anything else. your garchomp is double weak to C- making his 80hp a lot lower in a mirror/ambipom situation. even SP is quite donkable.
 
Perhaps not more or less donkable, but way easier than most cards.
Doing 30 damage is not that difficult and the pool of cards who can do 30 damage are way more than those who can do 50-60 damage.

Good thing to know that if the math is right I have passed my percentage of lone hoppip/Q starts for this season:biggrin:
 
Very intereseting and informative article, best I have seen on the gym in a couple years. Very relevent and well put. As far as the list goes however, I have a few cards I might swap around. I personally think that Looker is a very viable card that can help in numerous situations in this format. If you play against a Shuppet or Gyarados deck, it can swing the entire matchup in your favor. It is also good to have shuffle-and-draw cards for going up against a power-lock deck. I'm also not a huge fan of Azelf, but that's preference. Skunktank G is a tech I had considered in here a while back, being able to free retreat into a fresh Jumpluff and get the +10 in between turns damage against anything non-SP. Again, overall it was a great report and I thank you for taking the time to write it up.

-Sam
 
I don't like Lookers very much. If you want the ability to disrupt your opponent, I prefer Giratina. If you want anti Power Lock outs, there are better cards as well. Yes, your getting a "two for one" option, which I've been a fan of in certain situations. The problem is, extra supporters "clog" hands early game. 5 cards is also rarely enough to truly disable a players hand. Chatot is my personal choice for anti Power Locking, and IMO, you lose to Shuppet regardless of Lookers, and I don't feel Gyarados needs it. I could write a list of 20+ cards that would be very good in this deck. The problem is maintaining a balance against all decks, and more importantly, speed and consistency. Your forced to take into account a bunch of different factors in regards to the composition of this deck, and while its easy to see Lookers falling under "allstar" category in a number of situations, the lack of other cards youd have to take in order to fit it would do more harm than good.

Skuntank G was a card I first added to Kingdra last year for States. With Jumpluffs free retreat cost, likelihood of dying one hit regardless, and the occasional need for that extra ten damage, Skuntank is a fantastic card. Of the cards suggested in this thread, I feel Skuntank is one of the most viable to add. Its useless against SP, and I'm not sure if its incrementally relevent vs Gyarados, or big HP stage 2 decks, sadly. The fact that you can't poison, then kill a benched Pokemon, letting the poison add up, really hurts its viability. If the deck had bench sniping ability it would be fantastic. If it wasn't force Crobats useful free retreat, and ability to help donk, I'd say 1 Crobat, 1 Skuntank is a respectable split.
 
Would adding Lucario GL improve the matchup against Gyarados? I mean Luxray GL Lv. X can OHKO Gyarados with an with or without expert belt or if you place down Crobat G (60 x 2 + 10 + (20)=130/150).
 
Chris, thanks for the great article and thanks to all of those that have asked and given more great feedback.

Do you have any suggestions on running Jumpluff without the 1-1 Luxray GL? Would you keep the focus the same and just replace those 2 spots with other cards that can try to get cheap prizes like 2 more Warp Points or even Pokemon Reversal? Or change that focus and add a different tech for bench sniping, etc.?
 
Chris, did you give any consideration to replacing a 1-1 Claydol with a 1-1 Sunflora HS? I feel like that card was made for this deck. You lose some of your consistency with respect to ripping a T2 Claydol, but it gives you explicit search for the deck's most important resource, and it guarantees that your Communications are always usable. At the very least, it keeps this deck playable after Claydol/Uxie rotate, but I'm wondering if it couldn't be useful now.
 
The deck doesn't work without Luxray. I know the card is expensive, and not everyone is going to be able to have one...if that is the case, don't use Jumpluff. The deck loses to a lot of different matchups if this card doesn't make the list. There isn't a "substitution" for it: Thats why the card borders on being 60 dollars at the moment.

Pajamas: No, Claydol is simply the better card. You never have issues getting to your Pokemon, it is the other cards that are a concern. Sunflora simply isn't a good enough card in a format where we have Uxie and Claydol, and an overabundance of good search trainers/supporters.
 
Hiya Ruiner,

Great write up, nice list, great play, wtg!

Heard every reason you gave, every card, am nodding, very solid thinking.

Shamelessly netdecking...

Will change a card! Roserade is most excellent tech vs. Mimes and Sbombs!

Plus mebbe nother expert belt...

Expert belt Roserade FTW!

Gah, wasn't easy ripping Jumpy from my wife's hands, silly Shaymin girls....

Cheers!
 
Last edited:
Captain Falcon said:
just playtested ~10 games with Fulop on appr, gyara does not beat jumpluff lol.
Click to expand...

Well he said a skilled jumpluff player can beat Gyarados which he is. Speaking as a nonskilled jumpluff player I am a little worried. Also, has anyone on the gym read the front page pokebeach article about regional decks. It said luxchomp was a threat to Jumpluff. I find that to be ridiculous.
 
I find that article poor, I mean the lists aren't great imo, and the author defends this by saying they are for casual/begginning players. IMO it isn't right to give a player a list you know isn't good. Also,you can't argue a matchup with a poor list anyway.
 
So, (59/60)*(58/59)*(57/58)*(56/57)*(55/56)*(54/55)*(53/54) = . 88.33

So, the odds of starting with a HOPPIP in the hand is 1-.8833, or 11.67%.


Arent these the odds if you only play one?
 
Happiny13 said:
Well he said a skilled jumpluff player can beat Gyarados which he is. Speaking as a nonskilled jumpluff player I am a little worried. Also, has anyone on the gym read the front page pokebeach article about regional decks. It said luxchomp was a threat to Jumpluff. I find that to be ridiculous.
Click to expand...

Luxchomp typically isn't too bad of a matchup... if you get set up. With some skilled Collector + Power Spray plays, you can seriously injure their set up. If you take out Claydol, their primary source of draw, you have good odds of winning. Uxie LA can also be dealt with by Spraying it. If you can manage to set up without the use of your Claydols and Uxies (which is an extreme case at best, anyhow) the matchup is winnable.

That's assuming even they start with a Power Spray in their hand, or if they use Cyrus + Call. It certainly makes the game harder if they can use that combo, but otherwise I think Jumpluff's got good odds.
 
Yoshi- said:
So, (59/60)*(58/59)*(57/58)*(56/57)*(55/56)*(54/55)*(53/54) = . 88.33

So, the odds of starting with a HOPPIP in the hand is 1-.8833, or 11.67%.


Arent these the odds if you only play one?
Click to expand...

Yes but that proof doesn't take into account other Pokemon you may draw.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top