More PokeGear rather than Max Collector(Need Statistics Help Please)

[honchvire]

Hey all, I've been toying with card counts in my decks and I wanted some opinions on this:

I used to run 4 Collector and 1-2 PokeGear in almost every deck. Lately I've been getting frustrated with Mid-Late game Collectors rather than draw supporters, so I decided to experiment with 3 Collectors and 3 PokeGears. It seems to be working pretty well as I am finding that turn 1 collector about as often as I did with 4/2 and PokeGear is more versatile in the mid-late game for finding Junipers, PONTs, Cherens etc.

Anyone else have experience with this? Anyone help me out with statistics on getting that t1 Collector on 4/2 vs 3/3(Collector/PokeGear)? Would it be worth it to MAX PokeGears instead of Collectors?

 

[Flareon]

I like the 3/3 split, but I'm pretty sure (haven't done the math) that if you go down to 2 Collectors, your chances of finding the Collector from the Pokegear that early would be terrible.

 

[Roarkiller]

I'd rather leave the collector alone and just up pokegear to three. Worked for most people.

 

[Slowkingrocks]

I think it's pretty obvious that a card that is literally a Collector is going to get you a higher % result than something that is a chance at getting a collector.

So, no, if your goal is a t1 collector, maxing pokegears will not improve it. Of course, there is some improvement if you are aiming to get more mid/late game supporters OTHER than collector. But your turn 1 collector chances will go down.

 

[honchvire]

I think it's pretty obvious that a card that is literally a Collector is going to get you a higher % result than something that is a chance at getting a collector.

So, no, if your goal is a t1 collector, maxing pokegears will not improve it. Of course, there is some improvement if you are aiming to get more mid/late game supporters OTHER than collector. But your turn 1 collector chances will go down.

I know that my stats go down if I use less than 4 Collectors. What I want is some stats help so I can quantify and compare the odds. All I have now is anecdotal evidence. Obviously best chances at getting turn 1 collector would be 4 Collector, 4 Pokegear, 4 Xtranciever, 4 Victory Medal but I dont want to spend 16 spots on that.

For stats lets assume I want to spend 6 deck spots on this. My options are 2/4, 3/3, or 4/2.
What are the odds of getting a collector in my opening hand with 2, 3, or 4 Collectors in my deck?
ELSE
{
If no collector, what are the odds of getting a PokeGear in my opening hand with 2, 3 or 4 PokeGears in my Deck?
If I get a PokeGear, what are odds I'll then find a collector in the next 7 cards with 2, 3, or 4 Collectors in my deck?
}
Then combine the stats to compare the differences between 2/4, 3/3 and 4/2.

I just need some stats help, I know there are some statistic fiends out there .

 

[AzUK]

Assuming a 2/4 spread:

For the Collector:
58/60*57/59*56/58*55/57*54/56*53/55*52/54*51/53 = ~0.749152542
1 - 0.749152542= ~0.2508
0.2508 = 25.08%
So there is an aprox. 25.08% chance of hitting a Collector in your first hand.

Pokegear

56/60*55/59*54/58*53/57*52/56*51/55*50/54*49/53= ~0.5551
1 - 0.5551 = 0.4449
0.4449 = 44.49%

And an aprox. 44.49% chance to hit the pokegear.

Pokegear -> Collector (Drawing 0)

44/46*43/45*42/44*41/43*40/42*39/41*38/40 = ~0.7159
1 - 0.7159 = 0.2841
0.2841 = 28.41%

So there is an aprox. 28.41% chance to hit a Collector off a pokegear if you do not draw a collector.

Pokegear -> Collector (Drawing 1)

45/46*44/45*43/44*42/43*41/42*40/41*39/40 = ~0.8478
1 - 0.8478 = 0.1522
0.1522 = 15.22%

And an aprox. 15.22% chance to hit a Collector off a pokegear if you draw 1 collector

Pokegear -> Collector (Drawing 2)

Obviously 0.

And with the given data, there is a:

25.08%+(44.49%*28.41%)+(44.49%*15.22%) = ~0.4449
0.4449 = 44.49

So that there is a 44.49% chance of hitting the turn one Collector with a 2/4 spread, which isn't that impressive. However this doesn't take into account if you hit the 2 or more Pokegears, but this result is enough to see the differences between the 3 spreads.


I'll finish up the rest later.

 

[InnoceNt]

Just run 5/1. The chances of collector are EXCELLENT.

 

[AzUK]

See above post for a 2/4 spread

Assuming a 3/3 spread:

For the Collector:
57/60*56/59*55/58*54/57*53/56*52/55*51/54*50/53 = ~0.6458
1 - 0.6458 = 0.3542
0.3542 = 35.42%

So a 35.42% chance of the collector

Assuming a 3/3 spread:

For the pokegear:
57/60*56/59*55/58*54/57*53/56*52/55*51/54*50/53 = ~0.6458
1 - 0.6458 = 0.3542
0.3542 = 35.42%

So a 35.42% chance of the pokegear

Pokegear -> Collector (Drawing 0)

 

[Roarkiller]

#3 Thank you for not posting apparently just for the sake of arguing!

I hadn't ever noticed this line when posting. Cool feature.

*cough*

I used to play 3 collectors too. And you're right, it seldom makes a difference. Not to mention that even if you manage to hit a collector in your opening hand, there are times when your opening hand itself is just too crappy and a juniper/PONT is the better option.

"Statistics measures everything, proves nothing" is a saying I keep true to my heart (dunno who said it tho), but from what I've noticed, the general idea is that setup decks require the 4 collectors more than simpler decks like ZPST or Stage1 rush. It is because of the amount of setup needed that they NEED to hit everything they need ASAP, and scrimping on cards that help the setup is a big no-no.

So on to your question on whether it's better to drop to 3-3 instead of 4-2, it really depends on the deck itself. Like I said, it's better to make it 4-3, but if you insist on keeping that count to six cards max, then I'd say it's really down to the deck itself.

If you still insist on the math though, may I point out to you a certain law called "law of diminishing return". Up to you on how much you want those tiny percentage increase.

 

[MagnEels]

Hi

4 Pokemon Collector and 2 Pokegear 3.0, is best line
I get really often Pokemon Collector T1, but remember not always

You can´t get Collector T1 in every game even with gears.. If you aren´t so lucky for this
Try 4/2 line of those

 

[Unfallible]

People keep forgetting that there's more to the game than just getting Pokemon Collector in your opening hand and winning a coin flip (although not as much more as I would like). In late game those Collectors have a tendency to clog up hands, especially in deck that run low basic counts (i.e. the decks that need a T1 Collector the most.) I personally never run four Collectors, but I'm hardly the player to ask. Pokegear is great in late game for searching out specific supporters. As an added bonus, you can Junk Arm for it, as opposed to Collector, which you generally end up Junk Arming for Catcher. Just my opinion though.