Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Nationals Deck Field Composition Predictions

drrty byl

drrty byl

New Member
Considering MD didn't really yield many new obviously great cards aside from Empoleon (which will discourage Magmortar play) and Bronzong, what archetypes do you think will make up the Nationals field? Here's [roughly] what I'm expecting, since Gardy has yet to be unthroned:

35% Gardevoir/Gallade/Plox Variants
20% Empoleon/Bronzong
10% Arithemetic
10% Blissey Variants
10% Magmortar Variants
5% Ho-Oh/Togekiss/Garchomp/Darkrai
10% Other/Rogue/Random

Our southern plains regional had a top cut that consisted of 75% Gardy/Gallade, which had an overall representation of about 30-40% in the swiss field. I can't really see it being played less, considering the deck still seems to be winning tournaments -- in fact, if anything it seems likely that there will be an increase in GG playership. Thoughts?
 
I expect the format to be 60%-70% Empoleon and GG/Plox and the other 40%-30% to be everything else.

I expect that atleast 75% of the top cut will be Empoleon or GG/Plox.

Drew
 
^^I agree^^
Although people have been trying to counter G&G/Plox/Whatever since SW, it seems like it CAN'T be beat! When there seemed to be a small glimmer of hope with the release of another set, it only added to this deck's power, with the likes of Claydol and Pachirisu. There is at least another big dog in Empoleon, so here's how I see the breakdown:
35% G&G
25% Empoleon
10% Beedrill
10% Magmortar
5% Blissey Variant
5% Garchomp Variant
10% SD's/Rogue
 
Plox beats everything so will be the most played. Everyone who doesn't want to use it should just be nice and use a deck that needs a lot of powers to work. :p
 
I think the All Other always get's underpredicted.

Secret Cess Lock Decks are going to be all over the place.
 
Every year, people expect "50-60%" of the field to be the top two decks...And it never is.

Why?

Because this is a 500+ person event. There will be at least ten-fifteen _theme decks_ in this tournament, so why would a whole third of the field play the same tier one deck?

I see it stacking up like this:

20% GG (a very realistic number, IMO)
15% Empoleon
15% "Speed stage one" (Banette, Blissey, Electivire, Lucario, mixtures of the two, and I guess you could even count Honchkrow if you wanted?)
15% less popular stage two decks in this format that are generally decent decks (garchomp, infernape, beedrill all come to mind)

+1-2% to spread around between the four, to account for inaccuracy.

The remaining third will be everything else.
 
Last edited:
This year seems different than last. When Ape dominated the entire field, it didnt win. Personally I dont think there will be a dominating deck. And the deck that wins should theoretically be what beats Empoleon and has decent matchup with GG.
 
Big as Gardy is, I don't think it'll hit something like 30%. Kettler's 20 is a lot more realistic, which is kind of sad because twenty percent of the field at something as big at Nats is too high. Makes it easy to metagame, though. ;/

Even though Nats is the most competitive tournament in the world, there's still gonna be lots and lots of "Pikachu decks" losing their shot at day two after the first three rounds. I'd devote at least fifteen percent to those guys.
 
Ya 75% of the field being 2 decks is very unrealistic. If you look at a recent MtG tournaments, the top deck was predicted to be played at 30%, and it only showed up at about 20-25% on the first day, and only made 1 top 8 appearance. Go figure.

My guess is that most will have GG/Plox built if they want to play it and have something else they want to play and decide based on scouting.
 
Cyrus said:
Every year, people expect "50-60%" of the field to be the top two decks...And it never is.

Why?

Because this is a 500+ person event. There will be at least ten-fifteen _theme decks_ in this tournament, so why would a whole third of the field play the same tier one deck?

I see it stacking up like this:

20% GG (a very realistic number, IMO)
15% Empoleon
15% "Speed stage one" (Banette, Blissey, Electivire, Lucario, mixtures of the two, and I guess you could even count Honchkrow if you wanted?)
15% less popular stage two decks in this format that are generally decent decks (garchomp, infernape, beedrill all come to mind)

+1-2% to spread around between the four, to account for inaccuracy.

The remaining third will be everything else.
Click to expand...

I maybe wrong but last I checked Electivire feels like a stage 2, not a stage 1. I must be looking at the wrong kind of deck for Electivire. :tongue:

Drew
 
Last edited:
Electivire evolves from Electabuzz, who is basic. Depending on if you use Electivire from DP, evolving through Elekid would make it a pseudo-stage 2. But I'm fairly sure we won't need to worry about Vire any time soon.
 
My fixes in bold.

Cyrus said:
Every year, people expect "50-60%" of the field to be the top two decks...And it never is.

Why?

Because this is a 500+ person event. There will be at least ten-fifteen _theme decks_ in this tournament, so why would a whole third of the field play the same tier one deck?

I see it stacking up like this:

20% GG (a very realistic number, IMO)
15% Empoleon
15% "Speed stage one" (Banette, Blissey, Electivire, Lucario, mixtures of the two, and I guess you could even count Honchkrow if you wanted?)
15% less popular stage two decks in this format that are generally decent decks (garchomp, infernape, beedrill all come to mind)
1% Edgar.dec

+1-2% to spread around between the four, to account for inaccuracy.

The remaining third will be everything else. STARTER DECKS ARE AWESOME!!:biggrin:
Click to expand...

Your forgot some stuff so I fixed it for you. :lol:
 
boy i got news for you all i got something up my sleave just for you all lolz cant wait to see how my deck will do @ nats:thumb:
 
DarthPika said:
My fixes in bold.



Your forgot some stuff so I fixed it for you. :lol:
Click to expand...

Unless you bought edgar.dec then we will be fine, xD

Anywho, I think that 100 people playing the same deck, is EXTREME! it's hard to believe but easy to see coming,
 
Rew said:
Unless you bought edgar.dec then we will be fine, xD

Anywho, I think that 100 people playing the same deck, is EXTREME! it's hard to believe but easy to see coming,
Click to expand...

There where easily 100 ppl with Infernape decks last yr, so I wouldn't be to suprised to see the same with Plox.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top