Nintendo loss
- Thread starter Lucario-Master
- Start date
- Status
Otaku
Active Member
Yes, that was the point. The more accurate expression would be "Even a broken clock is right twice a day." Doomsayers will constantly predict something bad happening and when it does, ask you to just focus on their latest prediction being correct and ignore all the times they were wrong. It's not unlike horoscopes; if you have a large enough sample, it is unlikely that at least one horoscope won't be right, but it proves nothing because it was wrong about so many other people.
This is why someone seriously analyzing the situation is unlikely to make a bold, negative pronouncement, because being wrong is just as important as being right. Neither would they predict everything being all "sunshine and roses" either. You can't do that and maintain credibility, unless you are being very specific and the time frame is indeed long term (see U.S. spending and the debt crisis).
Except some people can't afford to spend more than $200 for this service. So (ignoring tax) I can get one system and game or I can get no device or games. If I save up three years, I can finally get hopefully the next generation of the previous device, but that is three years doing without. Plus video game systems and games often have resale value,though I know many actual game producers dislike this and ignore the benefits of the secondary market for the primary market - imagine if TCGs did that! :lol:
No one "needs" to spend anything for a puzzle games: it isn't an essential. A really good puzzle game still sells for consoles, so apparently you're missing something.
Oh so they'll need to add innovations to attract the casual players? Didn't they already do that? :thumb:
I also notice that your responses ignore the Virtual Console aspect of Nintendo systems. While it is true you're paying more than $0.99, $5 for some of the greatest games to ever grace the NES is still a sound entertainment investment.
TheRolesWePlay
New Member
This is a poor comparison as you're comparing either a home console, which serves a different use than consoles like the 3DS and Wii, or you're comparing it to smartphones which don't have the same game resource. Plus most mainstream games are about $60+ while Nintendo has stayed in the $40-$50 range (the occasional limited edition not withstanding)
As I stated above smartphones are a different beast at present. There are few satisfying games on them for hardcore gamers, they're cramped and they're uncomfortable in general. Angry Birds is nice, but it isn't something like Super Mario 3D Land.
If that were true then Nintendo would've bit the dust a long time ago. Some may not remember, or know about the console vs computer dispute a while ago, but it's quite similar to now in this aspect. Computer were better as they were constantly improving, and had more growth, but the NES/SNES, Genesis (for a time), and PS were able to overcome this challenge and Nintendo and Sony are rather household names now. Consoles have the added benefit of being consistent, developers are don't have to worry about the next new hardware, and gamers don't have to worry about upgrading their specs for every game. If smartphones started making games more seriously then it would result in a similar conflict.
I'm not going to lie, Nintendo has had some poor decisions, though that more boils down to the business's philosophy, than anything, but Nintendo is trying to change that and they're making rather large changes. Allowing DLC, the Wii U being HD (and being quite powerful as rumors state), and better 3rd party support are good examples of this. Most of these are still in the works, but they're certainly not in critical condition.
Also as a related piece of news the 3DS has sold the most units for it's time being released.
calisupra2nr
New Member
Ummm... this is just blantantly wrong.
The 3DS has been a huge success considering its sales have been outpacing the original DS launch. Every article you read from Nintendo (including their quarterly and 10K reports) will state how excited they are about the 3DS' success.
Nintendo and the Mariners have NOTHING to do with Pokemon TCG (see my other post). Unloading the Mariners is a smart move as they have decent contracts and are an attractive team for new buyers. Nintendo who is looking to get more cash flush in the coming fiscal year is just trying to maximize investments they have made (ie, Seattle).
JandPDS
New Member
Bloomberg news disagrees with you
"Nintendo Co., the world’s largest maker of video-game machines, forecast its first annual loss in at least 30 years after the yen reached a postwar high and the new 3DS console had weaker-than-expected sales.
The net loss may be 20 billion yen ($264 million) for the year ending in March, compared with a previous projection for a 20 billion-yen profit, Kyoto, Japan-based Nintendo said in a statement yesterday. That compared with the 12.2 billion-yen average profit of 22 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Nintendo, which gets about 80 percent of its revenue from the Americas and Europe, is predicting lower profit after the yen gained against the dollar and surged to a decade high against the euro, trimming the repatriated value of overseas sales. President Satoru Iwata cut the price of the 3DS by 40 percent in August as gamers flock to Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPhone and iPad, and Facebook Inc.’s website.
“Nintendo faces a very harsh time now,” said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd., which manages $28 billion of assets from Tokyo. “Competition in the video-game industry is getting severe, and Nintendo must fight for customers who are using smartphones and tablets.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...loss-in-30-years-after-cutting-3ds-price.html
TheRolesWePlay
New Member
You aren't much of a gamer are you?
For the record that article is from before the holiday season, which was before the (or in the middle) of when the 3DS exploded in sales. Also again the iPad is not a comparable object. The iPad has other uses, and has a minimal focus on gaming. In a few years maybe smartphones will be a threat, but as of right now the only things smartphones have too offer are small time killing games, and in the case of the Xperia Play some older games that are available on the PSP. It's trying to compare Apples and oranges. Just because the 3DS can surf the internet and the iPad can play some cheap games doesn't mean that they can be compared.
Furthermore the Nintendo's target audience is little kids to adults, the adults they aim towards aren't interested in the form of gaming that is thrown into an smartphone, at least not to the point of satisfaction, meanwhile most kids either don't have a phone, don't have a smartphone, or use their parent's phone. Even if they did they'd likely still want a 3DS since Angry Birds and the like wouldn't satisfy them.
Also this is the first loss in 30 years, which while important to note doesn't mean Nintendo is going to keel over dead. As I stated before Nintendo has been working to improve the problems many people have complained about in the past, and this was before the whole announcement. Nintendo has been aware and they are trying to fix things up for the next generation of gaming.
Regis_Neo
Moderator
For what it's worth, don't underestimate the "casual" mobile gaming market...honestly, even if it's not what some of us consider "actual" gaming, there's a far lot more people who're gonna play free/0.99c Angry Birds over having to use a proprietary system for handheld gaming, whose games are slowly creeping more and more up in price (I'm sorry, but $40 starting for most of the 3DS handhelds and ones made by Squenix are no longer "cheap" compared to when they were $30). That market is eventually going to the casuals, won't be now or in a few years, but I'd say within 10 years the handhelds from Nintendo and Sony won't exist, especially if the 3DS (or its successor) and the Vita can't establish any ground and stem the gains from the mobile sector, Sony's already been out of the game essentially since the PSP launched. I highly doubt they're gonna want to lose more money making another PSP handheld...Nintendo can fight, but even if it did keep releasing new handhelds, their share of the market they once dominated will be small.
Of course in the console market, not everyone likes PCs or has PCs capable of good gaming, so the console market likely will continue onwards.
Of course in the console market, not everyone likes PCs or has PCs capable of good gaming, so the console market likely will continue onwards.
bullados
<a href="http://pokegym.net/forums/showthread.php?
3DS, relative to life cycle, has outsold the DS.
The DS is the second biggest selling piece of pure gaming hardware (to the PS2) in the history of pure gaming hardware. The next closest is the original Game Boy, at over 30 million units behind. Out of the top 7 total console sales, 4 of them are portable systems, 3 of those Nintendo systems.
I'd say Nintendo is doing quite fine for itself, based purely on sales reports. They're coming out with a new system in time for Holiday 2012. Their current "new" thing is outselling everything ever in terms of pure gaming machines. They've got a massive cache of cash from years of doing things correctly. They're good.
The DS is the second biggest selling piece of pure gaming hardware (to the PS2) in the history of pure gaming hardware. The next closest is the original Game Boy, at over 30 million units behind. Out of the top 7 total console sales, 4 of them are portable systems, 3 of those Nintendo systems.
I'd say Nintendo is doing quite fine for itself, based purely on sales reports. They're coming out with a new system in time for Holiday 2012. Their current "new" thing is outselling everything ever in terms of pure gaming machines. They've got a massive cache of cash from years of doing things correctly. They're good.
Bellsprout
New Member
If I may ask, why do you rank consoles vs. PCs and handhelds vs. phones so differently? You rate casual phone gaming as the doom of the handheld industry yet say that consoles will hold out over computer because not everyone has or likes PCs. And yet PCs are much more common than smart phone and tablets that offer games.
TheRolesWePlay
New Member
A few things. I'm not underestimating the "casual mobile gaming market," quite the contrary, it might be worthwhile eventually. Keywords are might and eventually for the record.
Also note that the majority of $40 dollar titles are complex unlike games like Angry Birds, they have stories and multiple layers of gameplay and features, which is why I don't think it's a worthwhile comparison.
Also how is the market "going to go to the casuals," exactly? There are multiple levels of gaming, and to assume that they'll cease to exist is like saying "all slasher films are going to go away, because there are horror films that appeal to more people." If anything they'll either remain separate, or have some overlap, but it's unlikely the two markets (casual and hardcore) will consume each other, especially in only 10 years.
Mobile phones are unlikely to dominate the gaming market for one major reason, they aren't built for it. They're too small, many lack buttons, and even then they often are too small to begin with, among other things.
If at some point in the future phones dedicated to the gaming market started to crop up, then it will start to boil down to another PC vs Console debate for the reasons you listed, many people won't have a good enough phones, and some people wouldn't like them.
---------- Post added 02/01/2012 at 05:47 PM ----------
Fun fact: The 3DS has outsold most gaming systems by their 51 month period and is quite close to the initial success of the GBA. (barely beating it out) If this keeps up I don't see anything but good things.
bullados
<a href="http://pokegym.net/forums/showthread.php?
At present, the 3DS has officially outsold the GameGear over its entire life cycle. It's about 5 million behind the Gamecube.
The original DS is about 2 million behind the PS2 for top game hardware of all time. And it's still selling roughly 60k a week.
Where do you find comparative historical hardware charts? I've only got vgchartz to reference right now...
TheRolesWePlay
New Member
It was actually a post on a blog about the 3DS. The guy tends to post reliable information unless it's a rumor (which he notes)
http://nintendo3dsblog.com/the-record-breaking-sales-of-the-3ds
Regis_Neo
Moderator
Well the main reason is that they're the most comparable in that matter. To play games on a PC that a 360 or PS3 will play requires more advanced hardware I would reason that most people have on their computer, your common ones used for business or home use won't have the capability to play them on the same level is what I'm saying. So that's why in a sense there is still a nice market for gaming consoles, because they're far more accessible (and cheaper to a degree) than getting a PC with the capability to play those games, then having to worry about upgrades every so often to ensure they can play future games.
Meanwhile, handhelds and phones are both largely comparable because they are the portable market. And while there is a graphical and I guess technological difference between mobile and handheld games, the general trends are that more people are satisfied with the cheaper titles and such. I mean I'm not saying it's gonna kill off Nintendo handhelds or anything right away, but there's more than enough charts out there illustrating how much Nintendo has lost in that market in terms of shares (PSP doesn't really count since it was never competitive to begin with): Nintendo once had over 80% of the handheld market, and now that's been slipping ever since to the point they have a mere what, 40% or so share. And let's face it, your average smartphone these days does so much more than the DS and is technologically just as advanced.
Complex or not, again look at the trends out there and how much of the market share Nintendo has lost already to mobile games, they are already beginning to dominate; for example, http://blog.flurry.com/bid/77424/Is-it-Game-Over-for-Nintendo-DS-and-Sony-PSP shows Android and iOS already owning over 50% of the handheld market based on NPD findings, it's tripled in growth in the last 3 years or so.
Sure there are multiple levels and I agree people will still buy Nintendo (and Sony if they still somehow exist considering how much the PSP is a flop) simply for that and their first party titles, but my main point is that they're now the smaller share of the market that's potentially going to shrink, maybe even to the point where it's not really worth it to make a handheld console and they decide to just release software on whatever smartphones happen to be in the future. Especially if they can't find more success on their home consoles and they theoretically pull out of them as well to become purely software (which is pretty much doomsday scenario for Nintendo, likely not to happen at least). I mean don't get me wrong, but that's what the general market trend seems to be, they don't care as much for complex handhelds now that you need to sit down and spend time on compared to cheap...thrills I guess with mobile games you can play catching the bus or something. And you have arguably a far larger audience with mobile games regardless of complexity.
Size is not an issue, the screens are already as large as any handheld on many smartphones, the main factor would be the controls and buttons (which I do agree suck for many games, to me that's the overall limiting factor in having to use a touchscreen normally). Otherwise, in terms of tech they're just as advanced as whatever guts happen to be in quite a few of them, you can already run at least GBA-PS2 level games on them in terms of size and graphics (see the FF ports, which are technically re-releases of the PS2 anniversary edition ones I think with the extra dungeons even the GBA ones didn't have).
So don't get me wrong, I'm not here to be Mr. Doom and Gloom, I'm just pointing out what the current trends are and how this could impact Nintendo as a whole.
bullados
<a href="http://pokegym.net/forums/showthread.php?
The PSP was not a flop. It did not beat out the DS. But only the PS2 has EVER beaten out the DS. The PSP is #7 all time in terms of sales compared to all forms of console gaming hardware. The only 6 systems ahead of it are (in order) the PS2, the DS, the Game Boy, the PSX, the Wii, and the GBA. It officially beat out such gaming juggernauts as the X360, the NES, the SNES, and the Genesis. It's sold over 70 million units worldwide. Yes, it was a direct competitor to the DS. It still boasts the only real hardware dent in Nintendo's portable empire. It sold roughly 1/3rd of the total portable console gaming units for its generation. No other portable gaming console can claim that kind of market share relative to Nintendo.
I also do not believe that you can really compare portable console gaming to other types of portable media. Portable gaming consoles never get significant upgrades to their base functionality, unlike phones and tablets. Portable gaming consoles get games designed specifically for each device, rather than generic gaming design for multiple platforms like phones and tablets. Portable gaming consoles deal in both physical and digital distribution processes; phones and tablets deal only in digital. You can compare the sales of portable gaming consoles and games to phones and tablets, but I can almost guarantee you that neither Nintendo nor Sony view it that way.
That being said, the traditional form of portable console gaming is going to have to change with the new phone/tablet market existing. It won't have much of a choice. Physical gaming media is dying as gaming companies are realizing that there is a better profit margin on digital distribution than on physical media. It might not be this cycle, or even the next one. But at some point, the physical media source of portable gaming will become obsolete. With flash memory becoming so cheap and so easy to get (SD especially), I don't see what the business sense would be for using physical media for game distribution.
Nintendo is not in trouble. It is leading the industry in innovative hardware ideas. Sony and Microsoft have their little comparison contests going on, but they both always follow Nintendo's lead as far as gaming innovation is concerned. Nintendo essentially invented the modern game pad (with the NES's D-pad and 2-button layout), then revolutionized it TWICE (with the SNES's 6-button layout, and then with the N64's analog stick). They then invented the modern idea of motion controlling on console games. And they introduced the idea of the touchpad on portable devices. None of these were Sony or Microsoft ideas. About the only thing that Sony invented was the dual-analog setup. Microsoft never really innovated anything, though Kinect is some pretty darn cool hardware. I believe that Nintendo will once again be an industry leader with their controller pad on Wii-U (which seriously needs a better name).
Remember that Nintendo is currently at the end/beginning of their console hardware life cycle. There's always a bit of pain involved when shifting generational focus. Nintendo botched the 3DS launch, but they have since owned up to that with a bevy of fantastic games, a price cut, and some of the best games in the history of classic gaming. And the 3DS is one of the fastest selling consoles in the history of gaming. I don't think they'll make the same mistake with the launch of the Wii-U. I hope not, at the very least. Nintendo actually has a history of correcting their mistakes, as least as far as first party software support is concerned.
I also do not believe that you can really compare portable console gaming to other types of portable media. Portable gaming consoles never get significant upgrades to their base functionality, unlike phones and tablets. Portable gaming consoles get games designed specifically for each device, rather than generic gaming design for multiple platforms like phones and tablets. Portable gaming consoles deal in both physical and digital distribution processes; phones and tablets deal only in digital. You can compare the sales of portable gaming consoles and games to phones and tablets, but I can almost guarantee you that neither Nintendo nor Sony view it that way.
That being said, the traditional form of portable console gaming is going to have to change with the new phone/tablet market existing. It won't have much of a choice. Physical gaming media is dying as gaming companies are realizing that there is a better profit margin on digital distribution than on physical media. It might not be this cycle, or even the next one. But at some point, the physical media source of portable gaming will become obsolete. With flash memory becoming so cheap and so easy to get (SD especially), I don't see what the business sense would be for using physical media for game distribution.
Nintendo is not in trouble. It is leading the industry in innovative hardware ideas. Sony and Microsoft have their little comparison contests going on, but they both always follow Nintendo's lead as far as gaming innovation is concerned. Nintendo essentially invented the modern game pad (with the NES's D-pad and 2-button layout), then revolutionized it TWICE (with the SNES's 6-button layout, and then with the N64's analog stick). They then invented the modern idea of motion controlling on console games. And they introduced the idea of the touchpad on portable devices. None of these were Sony or Microsoft ideas. About the only thing that Sony invented was the dual-analog setup. Microsoft never really innovated anything, though Kinect is some pretty darn cool hardware. I believe that Nintendo will once again be an industry leader with their controller pad on Wii-U (which seriously needs a better name).
Remember that Nintendo is currently at the end/beginning of their console hardware life cycle. There's always a bit of pain involved when shifting generational focus. Nintendo botched the 3DS launch, but they have since owned up to that with a bevy of fantastic games, a price cut, and some of the best games in the history of classic gaming. And the 3DS is one of the fastest selling consoles in the history of gaming. I don't think they'll make the same mistake with the launch of the Wii-U. I hope not, at the very least. Nintendo actually has a history of correcting their mistakes, as least as far as first party software support is concerned.
TheRolesWePlay
New Member
@Regis Neo
I was going to post a long response that responded to a lot of your post, but I got to thinking and I realized what the source of this disagreement is.
You're saying that games on phones are getting a lot of attention and more sales than the 3DS or PSV.
I'm saying that it doesn't really change the outlook of gamer's towards the 3DS and PSV
And that's where the disconnect is. Just because phones are getting more sales and attention doesn't really mean anything to the situation of Nintendo or Sony at the moment. Their sales figures are roughly the same, if not better. The reason is because they're so vastly different. It's like trying to compare an FPS to an old school Adventure title. It just doesn't mean that much. The target audience of these devices hasn't really changed, and the opinion of their consumers hasn't really been affected by this either.
There aren't any titles that get hyped for phones by gamers, and gamers are still buying new games, to the point that games like Super Mario 3D Land saw fantastic sales. Gamers don't really care about titles like Angry Birds, well not enough to abandon Nintendo or Sony at least.
Will the phone market affect the portable gaming market? Maybe. DLC and whatnot might've already induced such change, and Nintendo might get some ideas from the way the phone market works, but to say that it'll wipe them out at this point is rather foolish.
I was going to post a long response that responded to a lot of your post, but I got to thinking and I realized what the source of this disagreement is.
You're saying that games on phones are getting a lot of attention and more sales than the 3DS or PSV.
I'm saying that it doesn't really change the outlook of gamer's towards the 3DS and PSV
And that's where the disconnect is. Just because phones are getting more sales and attention doesn't really mean anything to the situation of Nintendo or Sony at the moment. Their sales figures are roughly the same, if not better. The reason is because they're so vastly different. It's like trying to compare an FPS to an old school Adventure title. It just doesn't mean that much. The target audience of these devices hasn't really changed, and the opinion of their consumers hasn't really been affected by this either.
There aren't any titles that get hyped for phones by gamers, and gamers are still buying new games, to the point that games like Super Mario 3D Land saw fantastic sales. Gamers don't really care about titles like Angry Birds, well not enough to abandon Nintendo or Sony at least.
Will the phone market affect the portable gaming market? Maybe. DLC and whatnot might've already induced such change, and Nintendo might get some ideas from the way the phone market works, but to say that it'll wipe them out at this point is rather foolish.
Regis_Neo
Moderator
Mmm, guess we were talking about 2 different things/perspectives lol. Because I agree as well that doesn't change the outlook of gamers towards handhelds, certainly as a gamer I find most of the mobile options pretty much for casuals only or if I'm bored and just need to kill a few minutes (as I do like Angry Birds funny enough).
sentimentGX4
New Member
You are wrong. Nintendo has openly stated MULTIPLE times that it views Apple as its greatest competitor.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianca...microsoft-nintendo-of-america-president-says/
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/nintendo-apple-is-enemy-of-the-future/8248
I disagree with this statement as well and would insist that Microsoft has been the current leading industry innovator in recent years.
Microsoft has nearly doubled the operating profits of its "Entertainment and Devices Division" (which has XBox as its primary option) every year since 2009.
http://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar11/financial_review/discussion_analysis.html
Among its biggest innovations include the Kinect and the extremely successful XBox LIVE online gaming platform, which both Sony and Nintendo trail. Xbox LIVE is an example of an innovation that actually rakes in money, Compare this with Sony and Nintendo, both of which are facing heavy losses.
Last edited:
Regis_Neo
Moderator
Xbox Live also charges as well, so considering both Sony and Nintendo offer online gameplay for free no wonder it rakes in money...that being said, anything is better than Nintendo's horrid friend codes, that's about as close to a step back as you can get. And Sony's just losing everyone's confidence since getting hacked, and then trying to go the smoke-and-mirrors route by not mentioning it till later. If anything, Xbox has shown people are willing to pay yearly for better quality online gameplay I suppose.
Besides the Kinect was still developed as a response to the Wii, had the Wii flopped or Nintendo gone the way of the more traditional controller route, you never would've seen the Kinect or Move. Though I will give you it is more innovative in that it tries to sense entire body movements instead of 1 controller, shame it's not more accurate, but again it was also developed after the Wii showed there was a market for motion controllers. Wonder how long till we see tablet controllers for whatever future Xbox and PS systems like the Wii U lol...
I lol'd, and saw what you did there.
- Status