Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Sabledonk - math and analyzation

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Yoshi-

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The math behind sabledonk

Lets examine the math behind sabledonk, if its just another failed hype or the beast everyone expects it to be. I did this because a lot of people assume stuff that you can mathematically prove is wrong or wont help and I really think some stuff should be pointed out before wthis discussion continues.

First of all, pure math, the odds of starting with sablelock. I know Jwittz did something about this but iirc his math wasn completly correct.

The odds of starting sableye are 40%, thats correct BUUUUT you also have to take into account mulligans.
The odds of a mulligan are (((60-x)! / (60-x-7)!) / (60!/53!)) where x is the amount of pokemon you play. So the odds of starting sableye are:


0,40 / (1-(((60-x)! / (60-x-7)!) / (60!/53!)))

You basically say 1 = 100% = sableye or no sableye or mulligan aka 100% of opening hands. But we just want to look at sableye or no sableye but no mulligan. So we have to remove the odds of a mulligan from the 100% to reach what we want to look at. The formula is basically

---------------Odds of opening sableye
------------------------------------

Odds of opening sableye + odds of opening with a basic but no sableye:

e.g. with 12 basic pokemon the formula is:

0,4 / (1 - ((48!/41!) / (60!/53!))

= 0,4 / (1 - 0,19)
= 0,4/0,81
=~50%

So that makes quite the difference ;)

And with that out of the way we now:

THe odds of starting with sableye are 50%, the other 50% its a coinflip so you go first about 75% of games.


If anyone wants more math just message me but I think most people skipped this anyway :p


Which leads us to be the matchups:


Lets first look at the decklist, IMO the decklist should be somewhat like the infamous quadro uxie donk with special darkness instead of cyclone and sableye instead of plus power. For now Id like to look at everything as if spiritomb doesnt exist, well get to that later. Lets lay down the basics first.

I guess we can safely assume that with uxie donk, if you went second youd win 99% of games because of your ability to donk 4 pokemon easily. Sure stuff like double dialga or something like that can still stop you but donking 4 average pokemon was really doable and expected.

"But Uxie donk failed so hard"

Uxie Donks problem is that it had to go second, going first would allow your opponent to get a bunch of pokemon / lock you / whatever. The difference here is that with sableye you need to go first and will do so way more often then 50% and in case you dont go first your opponent will and that leads us to:

"But if my opponent can go first hell just setup and I loose"

Thats correct, but if your opponent goes first it doesnt matter if he sets up or just donks you himself. So this shows that going second you loose, it doesnt matter if it is due to setup or due to donk.

So, even if every deck starts running 4 sableye we have this:

----------------------------- sableye---------normal deck-----------normal deck with 4 sableye
sableye--------------------------50%-------------75%--------------------50%
normal deck----------------------25%-----------depends------------depends but slightly better then usual
normal deck with 4 sableye-----------50%-----------depends-----------------depends


So in case you want to play something not sableye with 4 sableye as starter you need to consider "do I have something that beats random decks 75% and "anti random decks" slightly more then 50%. For the record I dont see something like that existsting.



So lets now start looking at everyones savior, spiritomb:

With spiritomb we have the following situations:

You start with tomb and nothing else: Sableye will have issues but is only a special dark and a flashbite away from winning. It will come down to the opening hands but sableye has the disadvantage

You start with double tomb: Congratulations, you win

You start with tomb & pokemon x: If you dont darkness grace youre probably save, still your opponent can donk tomb, he may have the seeker, and if you cant get something up fast after tomb dies he can still launch the insanity on you turn 2. But in any case you probably win.



Sooooo spiritomb saves the day?
Not really.

Its true that tomb stops sabledonk for now but sabledonk can adjust:

Lets look at supporters in sabledonk shall we? It usually runs 1 seeker for extra uxie/crobat usage and donking the forth pokemon. But in case your opponent doesnt have 4 pokemon its still nice to have but not nessesary for you to win.

So lets just assume we add 4 Collector and 1 Regice to our sabledonk.

"But this will make the deck sooo clunky"

Its true that it will add SOME clunk to the deck but you also have to consider that in case your opponent just has less then 4 pokemon it may actually help you getting your stuff easier and donk them. In case your opponent has 4 pokemon, collectors are useless but dont forget that uxie donk had to face 4 pokemon often (2 pokemon & call nrg) which shouldnt really happen to sableye (4 pokemon?!). You also have to discard 8 cards with junk arm anyway so in the end this will make the deck a bit more clunky in some cases but it will also help you donk weaker opening hands way more easily.

Now lets assume the odds of having a colelctor are about 60% because IIRC its 50% on the opening hand and you still have your unown r / uxie to get it.


You start with tomb and nothing else: Collector for 3 out of q / eye / bat / unown d and thats it. You should be able to get one of those manually so sableye wins about 58% or so IMO. Slightly less then the odds of starting collector.

You start with double tomb: Congratulations, you win

You start with tomb & pokemon x: just collector for regice and go to town. 60%-odds of prizing regice.


And dont forget that you only start with tomb 50% of games as well.


"QQ collector QQ clunk QQ"

I admit one thing, the part with collector isnt tested but I really think my logic is pretty solid there. Icant guarantee that the deck works with 4 collectors but honestly, why not?!

"Theory QQ QQ"

With a deck as stupid as this theorymon is pretty easy and pretty accurate:



To sum it up, sableye will be the bdif, all bizzare counter strategys will only work to a certain point and still wont make it favorable for you. Spiritomb will help til sabledonk starts to adjust which is very possible and doable. So if you have your invite, I can only tell you: Dont risk throwing it away. if you dont have an invite, play sablelock and take an easy shot at victory with no testing nessesary, at least it will be over fast I guess.



And lastly, what can be done about this?

"Ban sableye"
Will only change everything to "who goes first wins" with spiritomb as the counter measure til something else that can easly do 50 damage is found. And "tomb or die" isnt really an option either although it would also make the deck itself way more unattractive which could lead to a sort of rps. So this mighth elp to a certain degree but not much and the outcome wont be pretty either

"Ban crobat g / uxie"

THIS!!!! is what needs to happen which stops any kind of ftk shenanigans.

"But uxie is sooo important for the game"

No its not, uxie is what makes the game idiot mode right now, uxie makes decks work that shouldnt work, allows players to play without a backup plan because they can just "setup for 7 lolz rolf herpderp" etc. Uxie is too fast, without uxie players will actually have to plan ahead again, wont be able to just burn their hand to draw a new one etc. Uxie is the root of what plaques our format, and if all decks will have to rely on draw supporters again that would be a step in the right direction. Just imagine sp that cant just uxie for a new hand everytime getting judged into a mediocre hand against magnezone. Uxie needs to go!

"Rotation, rotation"

Id love if this would happen, itshouldve happpened 1 year ago anyway. And people that cry that they cant use their sp stuff anymore suddenly: You knew this would happen soon anyway and something needs to be done, youve used these cards for sooo long, if you havent prepared for what can happen afterwards you only have yourself to blame


TLDR; Sablelock will! dominate and every counter measure there is wont really stop it either. If sablelock can work while playing 4 collectors the game will be donk or die for the rest of the year. Its no failed hype, its uxie donk on steroids that wins when going first. Something needs to be done about this!


Thanks for reading ;)


PPS: My netbook is broken and Im writing this using a weird university computer so forgive me the bad formatting, if anyone wants to work on this, be my guest and drop me a message and Ill replace the original post :)
 
Further evidence why P!P needs to get something done now. We can't wait for Battle Roads, international events, etc to be "testing grounds" - fix the format now!
 
1. I am not going to argue with the player perspective you present.
It seems certain that P!P are aware of the Sableye-donk deck.
​
2. Player perspective is not the only perspective.
To get a change you have to show/argue that without change players will lose faith in OP and that will impact sales. Not during the booms but during the inevitable lulls. That the loss of faith will be a long term issue and not just affect the next release or two. That no change will be an Albatross around the neck of OP that will always be looked back on as the decision that finally established pokemon as flippymon and not a game of skill.

It is a difficult arguement to make and I don't know if it is possible. Or from a practical perspective possible in the few weeks that remain before European nationals are finished. After all once Nationals are over does the present really matter? Many will take that view but there is little doubt that the damage will be remembered by the current players. I don't want to play pure flippymon. A game where who goes first wins most of the time. I especially don't want to play flippymon at Nationals.
​
The decision is a political one. If only because TPCi do not have input into the card design or the game rules. So is it possible to make the case that not acting is bad politics? bad marketing?
 
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it wont be the bdif
you didnt take into account the fact that just about everyone not running spiritomb will be running sableye
and if the other deck runs sableye and goes first, they can play trainers to get out of the donk, and even leave sabledonk without many resources

you did post some very solid math pretty much proving the deck can win 60% of the time vs spiritomb
and lets assume it has similar odds against other decks (a little less for sableye decks and then a little more to take into account those who dont run either)

since when has winning 60% of your matches led to winning tournaments? or even top cut?

the problem is that its all luck, there isnt much either side can do about it, it will all come down to the coin flip and what those first 7-8 cards are
 
Just one small nitpicking note: You claim that with double Spiritomb, you > Sabledonk.

But what if Sabledonk has the hand of Sableye, SP Dark, Crobat and Seeker? Sure, the chances arent huge but thanks to Unown R and Uxie it IS viable.
 
@Spidy.

You say it wont be BDIF. But dont qualify what you mean by BDIF. Just what do you call the deck that has a 60% advantage over the field?

No one would mind if this 60+% deck took time and skill to play. The complaint is because it doesn't. It is flippy-mon personified.

Its mere existence as a possibility requires that players have to counter it or join it. So assume that everyone tries to build a counter deck as joining it leaves you with an expected 50% finish on the day. Just how effective is that counter deck, because it needs to be a serious threat and not just a 50-60% deck vs sableye. How do you build an 75+% counter to sableye without losing to just about every other deck? The first step is to realise that whatever this counter deck might look like it is a deck where your opening seven cards are all that matters. The second step is to know that you have to be able to cope with the opponent going first. That only trainer lock, power lock, or just massive HP from your basics has any real chance of working.

Trainer lock = 4x Spiritomb (approx 50% chance of opening with this)
Power Lock = 3x SP and a Spray (tall order from your opening hand!)
Massive HP = 4x Reshiram, + 4 x Zekrom + more BIG basics. (but it is still unlikely that you will start with three big basics)

or a blend of the above.

And the trouble is that the opening hand statistics are against you unless the only deck you want to beat is Sableye.

====
Uxie Donk failed as a tournament deck because it could not win until after the opponent had a turn. The opponent had Call , Gastly, and half the time access to a power spray as ways of stopping the uxie-donk. All of which feature in tournament decks.
 
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NoPoke said:
@Spidy.

No one would mind if this 60+% deck took time and skill to play.
Click to expand...

Some do mind about luxchomp and it is annoying then you build a deck and conclude it is a bad deck just because it can´t beat luxchomp. The fact that one deck can control the whole metagame is stupid.

That said, like you metion the difference between luxchomp and sabledonk is the counter deck. Machamp have some chances to counter luxchomp while a real counter deck to sableye would proberly stand with little chance aginst any other deck.
 
I will.

No playtesting, doesn't care what the opponent is playing and a long break every round (in which I can play YGO, yay!) is just awesome.
 
Volt said:
I will.

No playtesting, doesn't care what the opponent is playing and a long break every round (in which I can play YGO, yay!) is just awesome.
Click to expand...

There is something seductive about not having to playtest, just show up and hose people, no thought required.
 
@Morten. It is slightly OT but the issue that some players have with Luxchomp is not that it is a 60+% deck or that it takes skill but that it has been around for too long and has defined the metagame for too long. Neither of which is the issue here.

Sable-donk beats Luxchomp in exactly the same way it beats a theme deck. If sable-donk were to fail to defeat the theme deck T1 then there is a good chance that the theme deck will win as it is likely to have more resources left or even just survive a couple of turns until the Sableye player decks out.

=====

I do agree with Yoshi that both Crobat G and Uxie have a bigger influence on the format than Sableye. However I do not believe that a critique of the format will be productive. Without the rules change and the boost to Sableye, the Uxie Crobat G donk engine is a 50% deck at best. I expect some foreign countries will dodge the issue by just not allowing B&W until after the local language cards are released for sale. A few may "decide" that the cards are not widely available and restrict on that basis. But there will be many for which neither arguement can be applied.
 
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I've been thinking of a few ways to give players a fighting chance against sableye and here's what I've come up with:
Put 4 sableyes in every deck you play bc if you and your opponent start with it then it will come down to a coin flip and you may get to go first so you can set up and your opponent will lose. I know it's 50/50 chance that you may go first or second but at least it's a shot.
Next I don't think people are realizing that Reshiram and Zekrom have 130HP as a basic pkmn, if you start with these guys your opponent is going to have a hard time taking one of these bad boys down. If you run 4 Reshiram and 4 Sableye and even 4 spiritomb then you should be fine.
One last thing, just put a crap load of basics in your deck bc if you start with at least 3-4 Basic pkmn then you will be fine, who cares that they just go the first ko, load your deck with twins and give em hell.
 
Just wondering, has anyone considered playing a deck with like 50 pokemon and 10 T/S/S? It'd have to be Gyarados... Or Rhyperior to use no energy.
 
Now your deck is filled with basics that give trouble against other decks. 130 hp with a basic is helpfull but they can sometimes seeker it.
 
We could just tie up and gag every sabledonk player at nats and throw them into a dark closet or something. That way, if erryone participated, nobody will lose more than one match to sabledonk!

amiright?

---------- Post added 04/20/2011 at 11:28 AM ----------
Volt said:
I will.

No playtesting, doesn't care what the opponent is playing and a long break every round (in which I can play YGO, yay!) is just awesome.
Click to expand...

Hi there.

>:]
 
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