Structured Deck Analysis by Erik Nance

[iambrent]

definitely worth the read. :thumb:

 

[amphy#1]

I was a big victim of speed this year. At spring BR's I got beat by a very fast Lux/Ape deck. I also got beat by a good Dialga G deck. I was playing with a well buit Nidoqueen deck. I was doing great damage to both of them when Nidoqueen was out, but I could not keep up with their speed. If I would have had more speed, then it would have been a different story.

Speed is the name of the game. If you can master that, you'll be a force to be reconed with.

 

[eriknance]

Tom, thanks for the kind words. It's always nice to have a mature, intelligent discussion on the Gym. Let me get to what you said.

(1) Your analysis of percentages in Battle Roads would hold true if it were so, but I will take the blame since I didn't give you all the information. Not only me, Sablehouse, and Leary, but also Mike Reynolds, Ryan Googe, and I'll guess two more very good players were there, so the ratio was 8 out of 35, upping the pool to 22%, which is a 1 in 4 chance of running into a good player before the top cut, the odds obviously increasing as you win.

Yeah, it sounds like the field was pretty competitive at this certain Battle Roads. The numbers almost look more like a State Championship than a Battle Roads. For this kind of dynamic I would suggest an archetype with a strong, consistent list (including techs for the bad matchups) . The only basis for making risks at this particular tournament is that the format is a little wide open. But that's the only basis, and so I wouldn't suggest taking those little risks. I think it's worth noting that things played out the way I expected -- that is, the archetypes pulled through at this Battle Roads.

My actual point on this is that it seems to be an increasing phenomenon, and I attribute that to the growth of Pokemon over the last two years, so that the paradigm has shifted in that you can't really go anymore to a low-level Tournament expecting to meet with looser competition. You have to come fully prepared if you want to even make top 6. As proof, I offer that some of my fellow league members, who have improved markedly over the last year, and brought nicely-tweaked decks, did not do as well as they thought, either due to a "fun" idea that they thought would spice up the day, a little bit of laziness that caused them to misplay, or dumb luck from which they could not emotionally recover.

Though growth of the game is having a hand in this, I think there's an even better explanation for the "competitiveness" you're noticing at low-level tournaments. The access to information that beginners and average players now have has increased dramatically within the past two years. "Netdecking" has always been an issue, but nowadays there are websites that give people in-depth help, intelligent discussions and strategizing that happens here on the Gym, and networking opportunities that players take advantage of. That's a whole lot to suggest a general rise in the average player's skill. At a "typical" Battle Roads tournament (where the field of players doesn't hold a quarter of solid players), I still hold that the tips I've provided here gives a solid player the maximum chance of winning low-level tournaments.

(2) On the subject of speed, I think we agree. I didn't mean that speed was NOW in that it never was before, or that GG didn't have an element of speed. Instead, I would say that speed has become even faster than ever, with Uxies, SP decks, Machamp, Beedrill, and more. Speed is ubiquitous. Speed is king. Set-up decks will have a VERY hard time (I'm interested if Gengar/Metagross can cut it). In all my playing experience, I've never seen it this fast.

What this means to the average player is that there's no fooling around if you want to win. Unless both players have bum luck, a T2 setup is nearly insurmountable. Yes, that was true before also, but now we have such a multiplicity of tools to get there (Flutter Wings, Rare Candy, Broken Time-Space, Energy Gain).

Look forward to seeing you!

Yeah, I think we have the same idea when it comes to speed. Ever since Kingdra, speed has ruled the format. It went from a Stage 2 that, for one energy, could deal 60 to the active and 20 to the bench, to a Basic Pokemon that could deal 60-70 damage for one energy (+ Energy Gain) and pull benched Pokemon up to the active position. Speed seemed like an issue with all those Stage 2 Pokemon doing crazy things for one energy, but then it got even worse with all the SP Pokemon.

I'm looking forward to the HG/SS series, as it seems like an effort to slow the game down dramatically. Honestly, it feels like the introduction of DP all over again. If we had no set rotations at that time, we would have been losing the Holon Engine, Banette ex, Mew ex, and others (remember, this is what Japan was losing at the time). Nearing the end of a series (ex series, DP), we usually see this pattern where the format is over-saturated with powerful cards.

Tom, I look forward to seeing you again as well! Thanks for having a constructive discussion here; I hope it's helped the others who have read this article make better decisions on how to approach lower-level tournaments. Also looking forward to the Beatles book. :smile:

Erik - in response to your very lengthy (and hence not quoted here) post to Tom (post #15):

There were, to my knowledge, 63 masters at NC States in March '09, with two more coming late, had one more of those late-shows showed up on time, we would have had a T16. I was on the bubble, so I remember that distinctly.

And as for speed, this format, more so than ever, has become about speed. Some would argue it's too fast. Do you feel that players should have adapted permanently or is the HG/SS slowing of the meta (and somewhat with AoA) a good thing?

Yeah, you're right on the NC States total. I accidentally looked up the info for the States Championship in 2008, not 2009 (darn Blackberry phone was all I had at the time, haha). Thanks for the correction.

I addressed speed above in my response to Tom, but I did want to touch on something. If HG/SS slows the game down as much as I expect it to, I think it would be a wonderful thing. Many people who play this game simply weren't around when setup decks ruled the format -- all they know is speed. I remember playing against a guy at a Pre-Release recently who only had one deck on him: the Uxie/Shuppet speed deck. He had a huge collection of cards (even though he was just a beginner), and the only deck he wanted to build and play with was a deck based completely off of speed. It stands as a good reflection on where the game is right now when this is a beginner's preferred deck. To me, it was just kind of weird.

 

[Muk Man]

I remember that 2007-2008 season. That was the year i played you with stantler...Never saw that one coming...lol But Very Nice Article.

****On a side note, cities this year will be VERY competitive, and with worlds in such an exotic location... the whole seasone will be competitive....

 

[LegendaryLugia]

Thanks man - great article!

LL

:smile:

 

[konopacz]

Good article, thanks for the advice.

However, you make refrences many times about taking "risks" during lower level tournaments. While this WAS true, battle roads and city championships are a good deal more competitive now. At one of the BRs I attended, we had more than 30 seniors, and I would estimate around 45 masters. We had some solid Gengar builds, gyradoses, flygon, dusknoir and beedrill. I played RayBees and decided to take out a warp point, and a rare candy for 2 extra unown G. Had I not made this change, I probably would have lost to the Gengar that I played in top 4 and 2.

While I do respect the idea of taking risks at lower level tournements, you can't expect all "noobs" to show up at battle roads and ccs now.

Great article and good read. Thanks!

 

[PokeMontoya]

I remember that 2007-2008 season. That was the year i played you with stantler...Never saw that one coming...lol But Very Nice Article.

****On a side note, cities this year will be VERY competitive, and with worlds in such an exotic location... the whole seasone will be competitive....

My Number 2 favorite deck I have ever played. Number 1 of course being Intimidation. Great article! Speed is the name of the game now. The name of the game is speed. Its quite sad acually that disruption has taken the back seat to speed.