Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

WW/WWCC – Midpoint Masters Data Analysis

Shino Bug Master

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Who Won/What Won City ChampionshipsMidpoint Masters Data Analysis

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The past three weeks of our new format have concluded, and incoming posts in the WW/WW (What Won / Who Won) thread have slowed down in preparation for the coming weekend events. Below, I’ve done some data analysis based on current results and results from Battle Roads, and compiled a detailed list on what have and what should perform during Cities. Here are the data results I’m working with.

Master’s Data:
85 Winners
84 Top 2:
167 Top 4
336 total results:

Only decks that have had 3 or more wins are being included. If you’d like to see more results for the post-Cities analysis, make sure you report your local City Championships to the thread in as much detail as you can! Link here: http://pokegym.net/forums/showthread.php?t=157680

Percentages of wins:
Magnezone/Eelektrik: 20%
Zekrom/Pachirisu/Shaymin/Tornadus: 16.5%
Chandelure: 8.1%
Kyruem/Cobalion/Electrode: 5.9%
Vileplume/Reuiniclus/SuicuneEntei LEGEND/Donphan/Zekrom: 5.9%
Zekrom/Reshiram/Kyruem/Virizion/Terrakion/varients: 5.9%
Lanturn/Eelektrik: 5.9%
Donphan/Zekrom/Reshiram/Kyruem: 5.9%
Magnezone/Yanmega: 4.7%
Durant: 4.7%
Reshiram/Typloshion: 3.5%
Decks with Zekrom: 45.9%
Decks with Vileplume: 15.3%

While we may have a diverse metagame on our hands, the decks that managed to handle it tend to be somewhat centralized. Magnezone and Eelektrik make up 1/5th of winning Cities Championships decks at this point, and there is more than a 50% drop between Zekrom’s and Chandelure’s success. There’s also a lot coming in at around mid pace, with 5 decks each winning about 6% of events. Seeing Durant and Reshiram with Typloshion winning the same number of events is a surprise, especially given Reshiram’s high performance in both Top 4 and Top 2, but it seems that while Reshiram decks have an easier time making top cut than some decks, they can’t handle the top tables themselves. I also took two of the more interesting reoccurring Pokemon to compare just how popular they are in winning decks. Zekrom may be lower than Magnezone as far actual deck presence, but it has found its way in to more than 45% of decks that have won a City Championship! That’s almost half of them, being included in decks like The Truth, Magnezone/Eelektrik and the Six Corners/Dragon+Musketeers type decks to overshadow any other Pokemon present at these events. Vileplume has seen a bit of a dive, but with a 15% showing, it’s certainly a presence and poses some semblance of a challenge.

What does this really mean?
This is just a simple comparison of how much a deck makes up of the overall winning numbers. It shows what decks you can expect and should prepare for at the top tables. If you don’t see the deck you are planning on going in with on this list, you’ll want to make sure it can at least handle the top threats, and be acquainted with the overall numbers for top cut results in the WW/WW thread.

Percentages of wins against total play:
Lanturn/Eelektrik: 55.6%
Zekrom/Reshiram/Kyruem/Virizion/Terrakion/varients: 50%
Donphan/Zekrom/Reshiram/Kyruem: 50%
Magnezone/Yanmega: 36%
Magnezone/Eelektrik: 34%
Zekrom/Pachirisu/Shaymin/Tornadus: 31.8%
Vileplume/Reuiniclus/SuicuneEntei LEGEND/Donphan/Zekrom: 29.4%
Chandelure: 28%
Kyruem/Cobalion/Electrode: 20.8%
Durant: 15%
Reshiram/Typloshion: 7.7%
Decks with Zekrom: 36%
Decks with Vileplume: 14.9%

This is a little different. Rather than showing how much a deck has won in comparison to others, it shows how much a deck won in comparison to how much it made the top cut. This slight change in data measurement gives us a huge difference in results. While Magnezone and Zekrom remain high, having a lot of wins under their belts, surprise decks take the top 3 spots. Lanturn has won more than half of the events when it enters top cut, followed by Donphan/Dragons and the same Dragons with Musketeers with exactly half. It’s also important to note that Durant jumps up with twice the results of Reshiram/Typloshino despite being tied for wins, decks with Zekrom plunge almost 10% while decks with Vileplume are nearly unchanged and Chandelure ranks below many deck that have achieved fewer wins.

What does this really mean?
It’s important to keep in mind that this has no reflection on how often a deck gets in to the Top 4, or its popularity. Rather, this data shows how often a deck that gets into the top cut actually wins the event. Decks that had seen less play have a slight advantage in this kind of information, because they had fewer Top 4 places going against them. That being said, this data should be a good reference for decks you should become familiar with, because these decks, while not as popular, are able to overcome their low showings and take more wins when it really counts. Teching for these matchups won’t yield the best results, because they aren’t based on popularity, but that suprize factor may be what yields them better results. It’d be a good idea over the Christmas season to get a few games in against some of the top ranked decks according to this information, or play a few yourselves so you understand just how they can work against you.

New Trends: Trend Setters, Burn Outs, and Dearly Departed

Whenever a new format is announced, there are 4 kinds of cards: new cards that do well, new cards that don't stand up to the hype, old cards that keep sailing and those top cards that fall flat. We're already well acquinted with the familiar big faces like Zekrom, Magnezone and Reshiram, so I'll focus on the new blood and the has-beens.
Trend Setters:

Chandelure

Japan’s “Red Collection” held more than its fair share of cards that flooded forums with discussion, and the dark horse of these discussions, Chandulure, has cursed its way out of the hype and into the light. No one could seem to put Chandy on the scale, being a stage 2 Pokemon in a format defined by big basics, with a lack of solid damage output seemed like it could do Chandy in before he got anything going. But a quick look over the WWWW thread shows us that this little light of ours is burning bright. The Ability is a game changer, being able to - through 2 Chandulure and a Dodrio - put 6 damage counters on the opponent's field per turn. This allows Chandelure to KO Bbaies/Reuiniclus line and hit the magic 130 in combination in conjunction to his attack, having 130 HP of his own. Most successful with Vileplume on the bench to ward off Catcher and Plus Power, and benefiting massively from the unfortunately exclusive Tropical Beach, Chandulure will have a strong showing through the rest of the City Championship season, and quite possibly beyond.

Kyruem

The biggest hype coming out of Red Collection, it was probably the third “Dragon” Kyurem. The question was never “is it good”, but “how good will it be?” Truthfully, it is a good card, with a lot going for it and a decent result to follow. So far, Kyurem has seen focal deck play almost exclusively in Japan’s leaked Kyurem/Cobalion/Electrode (or C/K/E) deck, which aims to charge up Glaciate quickly with the odd partner Cobalion to hit heavy and a few showings with Feraligatr, the latter having had little success. However, he is a fantastic tech card, much like the other Dragons, in a lot of decks. Outrage is more or less the main attraction, being usable through DCE, though the option to Glaciate is often present through Rainbow Energy. Overall, Eviolite has hampered what Kyurem can do; dealing a measly 10 damage with Glaciate to anything equipting it, but being part of the dragon trio and their exclusive 130 hp + Outrage mechanic has earned him a continuing spot in City Championship decks.

Cobalion

Taking Emerging Power’s Beartic to a new level, Cobalion joined the ranks of the new Musketeer cards in our NVI set. With Metal typing, he’s able to tank against hits with Special metal energy and a formidable 120 HP, while Iron Breaker wards off heavy retreat cost attackers like Donphan and Magnezone. Cobalion can take a while to get going, and thanks to the infamous Pokemon Catcher, Zekrom and other quick heavy hitters can punish him for that. This, along with the aforementioned Japanese deck leak, has placed Cobalion’s top performances as part of the C/K/E deck, which gives him a counter to his Fire weakness and unreliable, but necessary energy acceleration. He is often shunned from decks focusing on the other Muskteers for their speed, but has also made his way into a tankier build with Vileplume, which hasn’t had much of a showing. Overall, stopping the opponent’s active from attacking is just a good thing, and with Yanmega dwindling to Zekrom’s rule, Cobalion is having an easier time than Beartic did.

Eelektrik

Probably the second highest hype next to Kyurem, the eel has no problem having canceled his evolution. While 2 retreat cost and an inability to attach to the active do cause him a little dysfunction, Eelektrik has almost singlehandedly pulled Magnezone out of the wreckage of last formats crashing decks and given him all his former glory and more, claiming the most wins, most 2nd places and 2nd most Top 4 finishes of the City Championship halfway point data.

Durant

Probably the most questioned card, both on viability and ethics, having had a spirited run, coming in with a handful of top 2 finishes and being one of the biggest top 4 decks, Durant has 1 goal. Deck your opponent out! Being a basic with a single energy cost allows Durant to swarm and discard as early as T1 with a Collector and an energy, while Rotom UD jumps out of the binder to help him out and assure any prized Durants are drawn quickly. Durant struggles with a lot of Meta decks, especially dragons, and has a terrible best-of-three game, but it can beat bigger decks like Magnezone and The Truth well enough. It has the advantages of special metal energy, eviolite, a win strategy that lets you use Twins every game and just in the element of decking out. It’s a flimsy strategy, but when more so than discarding the entire deck, it can discard key cards your opponent needs to beat it the ant swarm. He’s got a future through the second half of CC’s, but he won’t be eating his way quite to the top any time soon.

Burn Outs:

Vanilluxe

While seeing two shining moments at top tables, this card was speculated as “game-breaking” and to an extent, it is in card mechanic. But the first half of cities shows nothing but contempt for the dual scoop coin flipper. No matter how likely a coin flip can be, something about the coin flip is either detouring, or just plain bad when it comes to individual games. His pairing with his V friends, Victini and Vileplume, while not unplayable, have not shown much success thus far and don’t lead me to believe they will. If you want ice cream at a City Championship in the coming weeks, stick to Haagen-Dazs.

Conkeldurr

Upon its first showing as a japenese cards, we were lead to believe he’d be released alongside Mewtwo Ex, making him beyond unplayable. When NVI revealed this not to be the case, there was speculation as to how Conkeldurr could fair against the nefarious lightning types being backed by Electrode or a Truth variation. It didn’t have a lot behind it, and it still doesn’t. The construction clown needs a bit more work before he takes a break from your binder.

Hydreigon

This was a card I had a hard time forming an opinion on. Big hits on 3 Pokemon with an interesting ability and big HP and a weakness shared between some of the top ranked Meta cards. But all these things lend it to be a jack of all trades and master of none. He can use Special dark, but has no energy acceleration. He can’t 2HKO the Dragons or other 130 hp Pokemon, and the 40 on the bench misses important KO’s on Eelektrik, Electrode Prime and Ninetales. He can use any energy acceleration except Feraligatr, but just doesn’t do anything with it that a better partner can’t. Three heads hasn’t given this hydra an edge over anything.

Haxorus

Hitting just under the magic 130 damage marker, I didn’t see much reason for the cards attention. It was discussed that his lack of weakness and colorless attack costs could make him very versatile, which surely holds some merit. But in a format where only the most extraordinary Stage 2s see play, the axe dragon just can’t hack it.

Dearly Departed:

Gothitelle

The only deck I played before the City Championship season, I was well acquainted with the power that Gothitelle possessed. With a new format in which Mew received a shun, and no new psychic decks to speak of, what happened to this devastating card? Magnezone took hold of the format, Zekrom got faster, Kyurem doesn’t give you more than 2 turns to sit that Solosis on the bench and evolve it, Cobalion resists it and forces you to burn resources a slight incline of Vileplume play… everything else that could go wrong for it. It was a strong play not a month ago, but has fallen far, fast.

Cinccino

Hitting up to 100 off a DCE made this card strong in our Regional/City Championship runs, and a little play at Worlds. It was never quite tier 1 though, suffering from a damage cap that doesn’t hit a lot in this format ruled by the 130 HP tyrants. Now, it’s been completely set aside, lacking a partner that doesn’t outclass or underwhelm it. By itself, it’s a strong card, but it hasn’t found its tempo for our current format.

Zoroark

Of all the cards to see drop in play, Zoroark is certainly one I didn’t expect. The format really hasn’t done anything to decrease his playability, and he’s been seen in some decks already running DCE, so why did a top tier Pokemon like this suddenly stop being played? After having played it myself, I found the very simply answer; Eviolite. Being a Plus Power away from KOing any of the popular dragon cards gave this card a lot of fame, but with the inclusion of this simple Pokemon tool, you are three plus power away from hitting Zekrom or Reshiram. Additionally, an Eviolited Kyurem will utterly humiliate him, while Durant doesn’t even notice his existence. While it isn't inherently bad, Zoroark is no longer a strong play for City Championships. It has a future in the game, but as far as City Championships go, he won’t have a strong presence.

Mew

Its highlight in this format was toppling Gothitelle, using Jumpluff’s Mass Attack from the LZ and using Muk’s Sludge Drag on big sitting Pokemon. 60 HP always made it a risky play, and the new reincarnation of the format hasn’t done it any favors. It can use Eviolite, but to almost no actual effect against popular Meta cards like Magnezone and Cobalion, while Kyruem can Glaciate all Mews on the field in two turns without it. The Dragons are stronger than ever with Eviolite, Chandulure can 2HKO any Mew in play with Dodrio to prevent Sludge Drag and Donphan is still present. Playing with Mew just doesn’t have any decent targets or partners anymore, being too frail without Vileplume and being outclassed as a partner for it by decks like Chandelure and The Truth. Mew is not likely to see much use in coming weeks of City Championships.

Kingdra

Kingdra was a devastatingly good play around Worlds, in combination with Yanmega and Jirachi, or just as an inclusion in Magnezone/Yanmega. Now with ZPST more dominating than it ever has been, it’s no surprise to see dwindling usage. Kingdra itself can’t take on any of the popular dragons, and setting it up as a tech in anything takes a lot of resources for a glorified Crobat G. If you can afford it space, it’ll help you greatly against The Truth-like decks and Pokemon Catchering big basics to KO with your own big basics. But be weary, the sea horse is easily stopped from setting up, and need something else on the frontlines in our continued CC format.

Emboar

From being included to the winning deck of Worlds, to being only present in ONE winning deck, Emboar is probably the saddest story to see. A massive retreat cost and a constant title fight with Typloshion Prime has left Emboar on the back burner. The new format hasn’t negatively affected him much, only Kyruem possess a new threat to the Boar. However, the need to have energy in the hand in a format with the devastating supporter “N” makes it much less dependable than Typloshion, and will continue to do so for the remaining City Championships.

Conclusion:
So what do we take away from all this? A few very predictable decks take the top cut for victory laps, like Magnezone, Zekrom and Reshiram, but overall, not a lot is ruled out. This format has a lot of breathing room, but also some very strict boundaries. Some cards just won’t hack it against the likes of these big basics, energy accelerators or lock doctors. Magnezone/Eelektrik and Z/P/S/T are the decks to beat right now, and Chandelure continues to prove that heavy hitting isn’t the only way to win this game. But that’s how Pokemon is, a few decks rise to the top, and this holiday season, we can be thankful that truly, this format is a giving one. Maybe make a gift out of one of format’s cheaper viable decks, like Durant and watch its swarm of wins grow larger in our second half of City Championships!
 
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6 corners has 50% win percentage against the field, and it seems like the deck just started seeing play 2-3 weeks ago. I bet it sees more play the next 2 weeks.
 
Unfortunately, Yanmega is also seeing a decrease in play. Everyone is building with N disruption in mind and Judge disruption doesn't seem as bad anymore. Hitting for 70 or 40 anywhere also just doesn't seem that impressive anymore either, unfortunately.
 
Unfortunately, Yanmega is also seeing a decrease in play. Everyone is building with N disruption in mind and Judge disruption doesn't seem as bad anymore. Hitting for 70 or 40 anywhere also just doesn't seem that impressive anymore either, unfortunately.

half right its hitting for 50 or 20 doesnt seem very good anymore
 
Lanturn/Eels is so underplayed. The deck is so fast and ridiculously good. Donphan is a problem though, even if you OHKO it back.
 
haha does not sound like you have played against any real durant decks.

You are correct! I did however, play and Top 4 with a "real Durant" deck. No where did i say it was bad, it just isnt going to be challenging Magnezone/Eel for top spot anytime soon =F

@ Muffin: Yanmega was just ever so excluded from the list, but he was close. I'm sure he'll see less play int he coming weeks though, so i figured i'd save him for the last week analysis, since he did make the list with Magnezone.

@jeffery: You could look at 1 solitary figure and take no context from it yes. I think we can both agree though, it means people need to playtest more against the deck and be ready for it!

And if you are reading this today for some reason, MERRY EVERYTHING!
 
haha does not sound like you have played against any real durant decks.


Good literary riposte! I learned something from that.

I think the real issue is the "you" in the statement HYPER EEVEE's statement. This article is not about Shino's experience, but his analysis of the results reported by our awesome PokeGym members.

What our Iron Chef Master Emeritus doesn't reveal is that he won a 7 round CC with Durant. While that certainly qualifies it to me as a 'real' Durant deck, he doesn't reveal or reference what makes it different from the ones that (don't) show up in the stats. That's understandable, of course, as he has a 6 event City Championship Marathon starting tomorrow, where he can show us its further paces.
 
You are correct! I did however, play and Top 4 with a "real Durant" deck. No where did i say it was bad, it just isnt going to be challenging Magnezone/Eel for top spot anytime soon =F

@ Muffin: Yanmega was just ever so excluded from the list, but he was close. I'm sure he'll see less play int he coming weeks though, so i figured i'd save him for the last week analysis, since he did make the list with Magnezone.

@jeffery: You could look at 1 solitary figure and take no context from it yes. I think we can both agree though, it means people need to playtest more against the deck and be ready for it!

And if you are reading this today for some reason, MERRY EVERYTHING!

Ow does Durant loose to Magenzone eel?. That has been an autowin for me all Cities long. The magnezone power helps you deck them oout and there are so many high retreat targets to catcher up and make stuck in the active while you mill thier deck to nothing. I fully pexpect Durant to make even bigger waves the rest of the Cities season
 
^Haha, i think you misread what i said. it won't be challenging Magnezone/Eel for its top spot in Overall wins. 1 on 1 it is up in the air (though if they run a Zekrom they can usually play around you pretty easily) but i was talking about the gap in their winning streaks =F
 
Haxorus

I play Haxorus and i believe it does well against all trainer lock decks. Vileplume protects against catcher so play Dodrio. It changes the deck to Free retreat, no weakness, 120 every turn once you set up, and with water energy as your extra, it's the finisher with kyurem scatter shot to a nice finish! One of my favorite cards and im going to figure out more techs for it. I was playing ZPST untill it became sooo famous at my league. I was playing ZPST when everyone was playing ReshiPhlosion, so i feel even the rogue deck with heart can keep up with the competition. (BTW I Rocked with ZPST! I got top 8 at Regionals;) )
 
Ow does Durant loose to Magenzone eel?. That has been an autowin for me all Cities long. The magnezone power helps you deck them oout and there are so many high retreat targets to catcher up and make stuck in the active while you mill thier deck to nothing. I fully pexpect Durant to make even bigger waves the rest of the Cities season

Can anyone actually answer this question? Magnezone/Eel may be the best deck in the format, but if it gets trolled by Durant, its a problem. Unlike the Luxchomp/Machamp quandry of the last format, "don't lose an early round and the Machamps will all be at the bottom tables" does not apply as Durants are seen in top cut as well. My thoughts on techs to help fail from the fact that any one of or two of techs will just likely get milled.
 
1 Zekrom is all they need to win easily. They get Zekky and 3 energy and its GG

@Ninja: This is completely based off results, where Haxorus has been a no show.
 
Brings up Rotom, play Rainbow, GG.

Opponent isnt going to just have Zekrom. Its just that all they need is Zekrom. Cleffa + Zekrom is the best case scenerio, or one of the free retreat little eels. Rotom Rainbow has also not caught on everywhere yet and wont always work. A Zekrom with 80 damage on it and 2 energy survives Rotom while OHKOing Eviolite/Special Metal Durant.
 
Magna-eel

Ok i get the draw power with magnazone and it's later game, but why not something like Haqxorus to just keep the energy cound alive. I know that if magnazone gets started early it may energy it'self out. what does another possible tech look like in this deck. also, why not donphan to counter?
 
Magne-eel is vastly superior to any other varients besides possibly Zekrom-eel due to its speed. If you are going to set up a stage 2 next to Eelektrik, Magnezone is the clear choice. It has no damage cap, meaning decks like Vanilluxe and Vileplume/Reuiniclus varients can't hide behind their "magic numbers". It has built in draw which allows you to get more cards quicker and it hits for a good damage starter. 50 per energy means you are unaffected by Eviolite on the popular Dragon cards Kyruem, Zekrom and Reshiram and the two trios of BLW Pokemon. Donphan is not a suffiecent counter because it requires a Plus Power to get the KO and isn't as good as it was against the rest of the metagame, though it isn't a bad choice of counter mind you. It just doesnt gett he results the way it used to

But above all else, if you have a question ofwhy a deck has been doing so well or so poorly, try it out, and compare it to the given percentages. I'll try and make some base lists for the post-city analysis or link to articles on them (though there aren't a lot for some reason..).
 
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