You won't have them at the right time. Its hard to explain, but if you build it and play it, it will become obvious to you. You need to Setup for 5-7 everytime or you will stall out too high a percentage of the time. Uxie Donk runs 4 Jarms as well and that is why it runs only a single Seeker.
Sabledonk - math and analyzation
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You won't have them at the right time. Its hard to explain, but if you build it and play it, it will become obvious to you. You need to Setup for 5-7 everytime or you will stall out too high a percentage of the time. Uxie Donk runs 4 Jarms as well and that is why it runs only a single Seeker.
Tyraniking
New Member
Is it just me or did you forget prize cards? It makes the matter more complicated, but I think it's important that it's brought up in the first post.
I think Sableye donk is easily tier 1. The only chance of losing is double-tomb, which is nearly impossible. Not starting Sableye is also a big issue, but then you still have a 50% chance of going first anyway!
The only time I lost with a deck with 4 Tomb and 4 Coll is when I didn't start Sableye, and they went first with tomb and another basic, collected, and it was over from there. Then again, I WAS one prize away from winning.
Insanes ammounts of basics work, but does it really? I mean consistency will be a huuuuuuge issue. SP runs around 15 basics, and even they aren't consistent in late game matters. Let's say you have 35 basics. It's an all-basic deck. Say you run 10-12 nrg. Not nearly enough, buuuuuut it's all we can run if we want 13-15 trainers. That's not enough either. But countering Sabledonk will be needed, right? But how will you be able to recover from Sableye cheap-hitting your field?...Exactly. The only way I see to beat Sableye is to run Trainer lock with mesprit and have loads of luck.
I think Sableye donk is easily tier 1. The only chance of losing is double-tomb, which is nearly impossible. Not starting Sableye is also a big issue, but then you still have a 50% chance of going first anyway!
The only time I lost with a deck with 4 Tomb and 4 Coll is when I didn't start Sableye, and they went first with tomb and another basic, collected, and it was over from there. Then again, I WAS one prize away from winning.
Insanes ammounts of basics work, but does it really? I mean consistency will be a huuuuuuge issue. SP runs around 15 basics, and even they aren't consistent in late game matters. Let's say you have 35 basics. It's an all-basic deck. Say you run 10-12 nrg. Not nearly enough, buuuuuut it's all we can run if we want 13-15 trainers. That's not enough either. But countering Sabledonk will be needed, right? But how will you be able to recover from Sableye cheap-hitting your field?...Exactly. The only way I see to beat Sableye is to run Trainer lock with mesprit and have loads of luck.
Thats better then most decks but whatever...
Make a geuss why for every expected face in top cut one does horribly...
Give me a deck that has better statistics then:
-50% mirror
-75% random
-60% "anti" deck
if mirror is your worst matchup then your deck is bdif IMO
And about the collectors, one important thing to note is that uxie had to face 3/4 pokemon often and collector would hinder you but sableye will have to face 1 or 2 pokemon way way more often and against those collector actually helps you
And I dont see a ro having 75% against anything ever. Most matchups right now are more then 60-40 or something like this, you mostply can outplay bad opponents but against "real opponents" sabledonk will be the best :O
And I really think that "bad" players will loose more then 60% o games because their deck either doesnt have the counter measure or they dont know what to do
baby mario
Front Page Article Editor<br><a href="http://pokeg
There aren't any other decks that have a 60% win rate against the field regardless of who plays them.
A good player will usually go for a deck with generally favourable match ups (maybe accepting a rare autoloss or two) and rely on their superior skill (and a bit of luck) to win out.
You don't have to rely on skill with Sabledonk. None is required.
So any player who would normally struggle to get a 60% win rate (and there are loads) can pick up Sabledonk and hope i'ts their lucky day.
NoPoke
Active Member
odd I can't "thank" posts..
Some posters are forgetting that there is a big difference between how you expect a deck to behave on average and the certainty that there will be a tournament winner. If everyone in the room played exactly the same theme deck there is still going to be an X-0 and a 0-X.
Deck advantage makes it easier to go X-0. Deck advantage means that you don't need to outplay your opponent or get lucky as much compared to the case where you are playing against a mirror or even an adverse matchup.
A widely played autopilot deck that wins very early while also having an advantage against most of the field is bad if you want the tournament to rank players in some approximation of demonstrated skill on the day. Skill will still show through but the results will have a big spread with strong players doing very poorly. The signal of skill will be buried in the noise of the opening flip.
Some posters are forgetting that there is a big difference between how you expect a deck to behave on average and the certainty that there will be a tournament winner. If everyone in the room played exactly the same theme deck there is still going to be an X-0 and a 0-X.
Deck advantage makes it easier to go X-0. Deck advantage means that you don't need to outplay your opponent or get lucky as much compared to the case where you are playing against a mirror or even an adverse matchup.
A widely played autopilot deck that wins very early while also having an advantage against most of the field is bad if you want the tournament to rank players in some approximation of demonstrated skill on the day. Skill will still show through but the results will have a big spread with strong players doing very poorly. The signal of skill will be buried in the noise of the opening flip.
Rainbowgym
Active Member
We are in that position for a while already. The new rules makes it only happen more.
Ze Quidinateur
New Member
One small point: Yoshi assumes ~50% chance of having a Collector in your opening hand if you run 4, which is correct for Sableyes, but because you can have collector in your opening hand with no basics, the actual odds are around 40% IIRC.
Not a very dramatic change, but it does mean his Trainerlock vs. Sableye matchup calculations are a few percents off.
Not a very dramatic change, but it does mean his Trainerlock vs. Sableye matchup calculations are a few percents off.
NoPoke
Active Member
its statistics (which means assumptions/simplifications are being made) so the math is just about guaranteed to be off. The odds of collector are increased as you get to draw a card. Then you may get to play Uxie... it all gets far too hard far too fast for anything beyond simulation.
I think that's funny....
You are all predicting the Spiritomb won't be a problem vs. Sabledonk and all MU's will be in your favour.
However, you are all teching the list out to win Vs. Spiritomb.
My question is, why in hell should this MUs be favorable?
Lol, even if numbers tell the opposite, in reality the Spiritomb player will always have the advantage.
For example if you have a (lets say) VileGar based Metagame, who is going to play Sabledonk?
What I want to say is, that numbers do not always tell the truth, because in the end the results will look different.
What really counts is the Metagame.... And it is more likely to face a Trainerlock, than Sabledonk, because Trainerlock has a higher chance to win without luck, even if the game takes longer.
So I'd rather be afraid of facing Trainerlock with Sabledonk, than facing Sabledonk with Trainerlock.
IT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SABLEDONK.
FORGET THAT DAMN MATHS IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS, BECAUSE IN THE END IT IS DEFINITLY NOT GOING TO HELP YOU!!!!
-Darkmot
P.S.: All better players won't play Sabledonk, just ask them and don't get irritated by threads like this one....
You are all predicting the Spiritomb won't be a problem vs. Sabledonk and all MU's will be in your favour.
However, you are all teching the list out to win Vs. Spiritomb.
My question is, why in hell should this MUs be favorable?
Lol, even if numbers tell the opposite, in reality the Spiritomb player will always have the advantage.
For example if you have a (lets say) VileGar based Metagame, who is going to play Sabledonk?
What I want to say is, that numbers do not always tell the truth, because in the end the results will look different.
What really counts is the Metagame.... And it is more likely to face a Trainerlock, than Sabledonk, because Trainerlock has a higher chance to win without luck, even if the game takes longer.
So I'd rather be afraid of facing Trainerlock with Sabledonk, than facing Sabledonk with Trainerlock.
IT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SABLEDONK.
FORGET THAT DAMN MATHS IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS, BECAUSE IN THE END IT IS DEFINITLY NOT GOING TO HELP YOU!!!!
-Darkmot
P.S.: All better players won't play Sabledonk, just ask them and don't get irritated by threads like this one....
Math is the only concrete thing to deal with. You can't dismiss the math that is being prevented. The fact is, that Spiritomb decks have a statistical disadvantage against this type of Sableye deck.
If the rules stay the same I will likely be playing 4 Sableye/4 Spiritomb in my deck and hoping for the best.
If the rules stay the same I will likely be playing 4 Sableye/4 Spiritomb in my deck and hoping for the best.
See, you will not play Sabledonk, because it is too luck based, you are playing tomb yourself....
If you would play Sabldonk, what are you afraid of?
SPIRITOMB!!!!
Math won't help you, as players will be prepaired....
It is just the same as always, overhyping something, that won't change that much.
If a Sabledonk player gets lucky and wins, then it is one thing, but the chances to win a whole tournament with it are small.
It is just more in Spiritombs favour, as a single Sabledonk player won't make the cut in a Trainerlock based meta, unless he gets very very lucky, while a Spiritomb player doesn't have to get that lucky, to win in a Sabledonk Format.
The luck makes it statistically favorable for Spiritomb, just ignore that maths....
-Darkmot.
If you would play Sabldonk, what are you afraid of?
SPIRITOMB!!!!
Math won't help you, as players will be prepaired....
It is just the same as always, overhyping something, that won't change that much.
If a Sabledonk player gets lucky and wins, then it is one thing, but the chances to win a whole tournament with it are small.
It is just more in Spiritombs favour, as a single Sabledonk player won't make the cut in a Trainerlock based meta, unless he gets very very lucky, while a Spiritomb player doesn't have to get that lucky, to win in a Sabledonk Format.
The luck makes it statistically favorable for Spiritomb, just ignore that maths....
-Darkmot.
Who is talking about 8 lol
At highest 4... Depending on the playstile, or what the player likes most....
-Darkmot.
I don't understand why you're downplaying the instances in which a Sabledonk player "gets lucky and wins." You're implying that as long as Sabledonk doesn't win Nats, all is fine. Even with the format we have right now, donks are common and they completely cripple a player's chance to skillfully outplay their opponent. It didn't just happen to me this past weekend, it happened to many good players. A couple of donks here and there and it's enough to keep even the best player in the entire world out of the top cut.
Even if I tech my deck out to avoid Sabledonks, there are still instances in which it doesn't help. I can ignore the math just like you can and say that even with 4 Sableye and 4 Spiritomb I may still start with a lone Gastly facing a Sableye. Then you get into issues of consistency when you're dedicating 8 spots in your deck to avoid getting donked. The format right now is unhealthy; it doesn't look like the upcoming changes are going to help at all.
I think the question is whether you want the Pokemon TCG to be about skill or about luck. There's no question about it, the Pokemon TCG should be about SKILL first and foremost. If you think otherwise, well, you're wrong.
Paperfairy
New Member
I have to say Erik, it always annoys me to no end whenever you post, simply because you always have something LOGICAL and just plain RIGHT to say, only for the idiot rush to ignore you and keep on "playing around the donk".
We've given them the math, the matchups - all that's left is to sit back and watch Sabledonk take Nats. Maybe then they'll see?
YSou're just saying what I mean in different words.
Math wonn't helpt you.
Luck will help you, but Sabledonk needs too much of that, in the end.
You're dedicating at highest 4 spots for not getting donked, as you should already have had 4 Sable/Tomb in the deck....
So it won't hurt consistency in the right deck, because these cards just make it more consistent, and if you play something to discard these cards, it won't even be too clunky....
-Darkmot
baby mario
Front Page Article Editor<br><a href="http://pokeg
I don't think the better players will play Sabledonk.
I think that a lot of better players will have their chances at Nats ruined by mediocre players who do.
The fact that these mediocre players likely won't win or even top cut just makes the whole thing worse.
I think that a lot of better players will have their chances at Nats ruined by mediocre players who do.
The fact that these mediocre players likely won't win or even top cut just makes the whole thing worse.
But you're assuming that I play Vilegar. What's a Luxchomp player to do? "Tech" in 4 Spiritombs and 4 Sableye to avoid the donk? That completely ruins your consistency and your chance to win a game in the mirror. And even in Sableye vs. Sableye starts, a Sabledonk can still win the flip and donk you. In fact, adding 4 Sableye into a Vilegar list increases the chance that you'll get a Sableye start instead of a Spiritomb start. It's pretty lame, but the presence of Sableye in your deck can actually lead to a loss.
This all ignores my point, which baby mario summed up pretty well:
And like I said before, all of this donkability only contributes to making the Pokemon TCG a less skillful game, which it should not be.
ShadowGuard
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It's not the problem that Sabledonk is going to win Nats, it's the problem that Sabledonk prevents good players from winning Nats cause they lose to luck. Sure, this already can happen, expecially in a format like the one we have, but Sabledonk makes things a lot worse.
You have a basic matchup at the beginning of the game, this is determined by the decks and by the techs players have in their deck. But the longer a game is played, the more the odds of winning shift towards the more experienced players, because he makes less mistakes and can plan ahead better. That's why better players win more tournaments. If it's a Luxchomp mirror with same lists, the basic matchups is 50-50, but the longer the game goes, the higher the chance that the better player wins. And this is why a basic matchup of 50-50 or higher is enough for a good player to get consistant wins.
Now with Sabledonk, the game goes for one turn. Either you donk T1, or you scoop. Sure, Uxie donk can keep playing a little more with infinite Psychic Restore and PlusPowers, then Setup then back to the hand again. Sabledonk will have problem to do so, since the one energy is attached to Sableye and there's no chance to get it back. So if the basic matchup is let's say 75% against normal decks and 50% against Spiritomb decks, it's the final matchup that can't be altered by either players skill (unless the Sabledonk players' skill is too low to play the deck correctly).
That means, if you run Sabledonk and assume that at least half of the opponents in your tournament run either 4 Spiritomb or 4 Sableye, you'll win about 62% of your matches statistically. That's not enough for making the cut, so you'll need a portion of luck that's above average to make it.
So why is Sabledonk still a threat for the format? Well, image a random supporter card that says "Flip a coin. If heads, you win. If tails, you lose." Sabledonk is basically this. The player can choose to determine the match outcome by luck, and there's nothing an opponent can do against it. And this is not the point of a game. It's not fun, it's not fair, you won't learn anything from it but how it feels to be frustrated... well and that's already half of the points of the Spirit of the Game that are hurt by Sabledonk.
You have a basic matchup at the beginning of the game, this is determined by the decks and by the techs players have in their deck. But the longer a game is played, the more the odds of winning shift towards the more experienced players, because he makes less mistakes and can plan ahead better. That's why better players win more tournaments. If it's a Luxchomp mirror with same lists, the basic matchups is 50-50, but the longer the game goes, the higher the chance that the better player wins. And this is why a basic matchup of 50-50 or higher is enough for a good player to get consistant wins.
Now with Sabledonk, the game goes for one turn. Either you donk T1, or you scoop. Sure, Uxie donk can keep playing a little more with infinite Psychic Restore and PlusPowers, then Setup then back to the hand again. Sabledonk will have problem to do so, since the one energy is attached to Sableye and there's no chance to get it back. So if the basic matchup is let's say 75% against normal decks and 50% against Spiritomb decks, it's the final matchup that can't be altered by either players skill (unless the Sabledonk players' skill is too low to play the deck correctly).
That means, if you run Sabledonk and assume that at least half of the opponents in your tournament run either 4 Spiritomb or 4 Sableye, you'll win about 62% of your matches statistically. That's not enough for making the cut, so you'll need a portion of luck that's above average to make it.
So why is Sabledonk still a threat for the format? Well, image a random supporter card that says "Flip a coin. If heads, you win. If tails, you lose." Sabledonk is basically this. The player can choose to determine the match outcome by luck, and there's nothing an opponent can do against it. And this is not the point of a game. It's not fun, it's not fair, you won't learn anything from it but how it feels to be frustrated... well and that's already half of the points of the Spirit of the Game that are hurt by Sabledonk.
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