The ironic part is that you gave one example where it's not clear that your opponent hurt you by dropping. if your opponent had lost his last round, you would have been hurt by him staying in the tournament, and could have placed even worse.
You're giving one example based on anecdote, while the math behind how resistance is calculated says otherwise. (The math supports baby_mario.)
I agree with your assessment. It would be ironic... however...
I'm afraid that I did a discourtesy to you. I failed to mention that I was guaranteed at least 4th place or better in the tournament. The person in 5th with a 4-1 record had below 50% Opp's win rate. Not even my previous opponent playing in the final round and losing would have dropped me to be in 5th.
That was a key component that I left out. As a result we can summarize it as the following:
If my opponent plays the final round and wins, I finish in first place - 15 CP
If my opponent plays the final round and loses, I finish in third or fourth place no matter what - 10 CP
If my opponent does not play in the final round, I am guaranteed 3rd place - 10 CP
What I AM saying:
1. My previous opponent's decision to drop at that juncture in time hurt my potential to have a higher Opp's Win %.
2. The lowest amount of CP that I could earn at this tournament was 10.
3. The highest amount of CP that I could earn at this tournament was 15.
What I AM NOT saying: My previous opponent's decision to drop at that juncture in time hurt my Opp's Win %. It simply hurt my POTENTIAL Opp's Win %.
Conclusion: baby_mario's statement "You are better off if an opponent drops than if they keep playing and losing" is a false statement.
I was NOT better off watching my opponent drop because it cost me a chance at 5 additional CP and required absolutely no risk. Even if he lost, it hurt me in no way whatsoever.
I provided a direct counterexample to his statement. And since in order for something to be true, it has to be true ALL THE TIME, his statement is false.
---------- Post added 10/01/2012 at 03:12 PM ----------
So dropping at 2-2 means that player will count as a 50% player in your op win record. had the player played on and lost it would go down (40%) and had the player played on and won it goes up (60%). But there is no guarantee that the player would win the next round. Players often drop because they made a poor metagame choice and expect to lose rather than win the remaining games.
So I agree with Baby Mario. It is a myth that dropping always hurts you.
Your last sentence suggests that you actually agree with me, not Baby Mario. Unless this entire thing is a misunderstanding on my part, but I've read his post and it appears that he saying that opponents dropping does not affect tournament standings in a negative way, when clearly in my counterexample it cost me a chance at an additional 5 Championship Points.