BRs - No top cut - how do we feel now?

[NoPoke]

If a player dropped from the event before it was completed, then that player’s win percentage is the number of wins divided by the number of rounds that player participated in, with a minimum win percentage of 25%, and a maximum win percentage of 75%.

So dropping at 2-2 means that player will count as a 50% player in your op win record. had the player played on and lost it would go down (40%) and had the player played on and won it goes up (60%). But there is no guarantee that the player would win the next round. Players often drop because they made a poor metagame choice and expect to lose rather than win the remaining games.

So I agree with Baby Mario. It is a myth that dropping always hurts you.

 

[psychup2034]

It's not "almost completely a myth", and while I understand that I'm only giving one example, it is my belief that others could give firsthand accounts of it happening as well this season alone.

The ironic part is that you gave one example where it's not clear that your opponent hurt you by dropping. if your opponent had lost his last round, you would have been hurt by him staying in the tournament, and could have placed even worse.

You're giving one example based on anecdote, while the math behind how resistance is calculated says otherwise. (The math supports baby_mario.)

 

[dubzcheckem]

The ironic part is that you gave one example where it's not clear that your opponent hurt you by dropping. if your opponent had lost his last round, you would have been hurt by him staying in the tournament, and could have placed even worse.

You're giving one example based on anecdote, while the math behind how resistance is calculated says otherwise. (The math supports baby_mario.)

I agree with your assessment. It would be ironic... however...

I'm afraid that I did a discourtesy to you. I failed to mention that I was guaranteed at least 4th place or better in the tournament. The person in 5th with a 4-1 record had below 50% Opp's win rate. Not even my previous opponent playing in the final round and losing would have dropped me to be in 5th.
That was a key component that I left out. As a result we can summarize it as the following:


If my opponent plays the final round and wins, I finish in first place - 15 CP
If my opponent plays the final round and loses, I finish in third or fourth place no matter what - 10 CP

If my opponent does not play in the final round, I am guaranteed 3rd place - 10 CP



What I AM saying:
1. My previous opponent's decision to drop at that juncture in time hurt my potential to have a higher Opp's Win %.
2. The lowest amount of CP that I could earn at this tournament was 10.
3. The highest amount of CP that I could earn at this tournament was 15.

What I AM NOT saying: My previous opponent's decision to drop at that juncture in time hurt my Opp's Win %. It simply hurt my POTENTIAL Opp's Win %.


Conclusion: baby_mario's statement "You are better off if an opponent drops than if they keep playing and losing" is a false statement.

I was NOT better off watching my opponent drop because it cost me a chance at 5 additional CP and required absolutely no risk. Even if he lost, it hurt me in no way whatsoever.
I provided a direct counterexample to his statement. And since in order for something to be true, it has to be true ALL THE TIME, his statement is false.





---------- Post added 10/01/2012 at 03:12 PM ----------

So dropping at 2-2 means that player will count as a 50% player in your op win record. had the player played on and lost it would go down (40%) and had the player played on and won it goes up (60%). But there is no guarantee that the player would win the next round. Players often drop because they made a poor metagame choice and expect to lose rather than win the remaining games.

So I agree with Baby Mario. It is a myth that dropping always hurts you.

Your last sentence suggests that you actually agree with me, not Baby Mario. Unless this entire thing is a misunderstanding on my part, but I've read his post and it appears that he saying that opponents dropping does not affect tournament standings in a negative way, when clearly in my counterexample it cost me a chance at an additional 5 Championship Points.

 

[psychup2034]

Your last sentence suggests that you actually agree with me, not Baby Mario. Unless this entire thing is a misunderstanding on my part, but I've read his post and it appears that he saying that opponents dropping does not affect tournament standings in a negative way, when clearly in my counterexample it cost me a chance at an additional 5 Championship Points.

baby_mario is saying that opponents dropping does not necessarily have a positive or negative effect on your tournament standing. The effect that your opponents dropping has on your standing is completely dependent on his/her theoretical performance after he/she has dropped. (baby_mario, please correct me if I'm wrong about what you're saying.)

In your particular example, your opponent staying and losing could not hurt you. I could just as easily produce another example where your opponent staying and winning could not benefit you, but if your opponent stayed and lost, it would hurt you. The problem is that you're using a sample size of 1. If you had a sample of 1,000, I'm sure that you will find that people dropping has an insignificant/neutral effect on tournament standings.

 

[NoPoke]

.....
Conclusion: baby_mario's statement "You are better off if an opponent drops than if they keep playing and losing" is a false statement. .....

False? Really? If your opponents play out the rounds and loses then that is the very definition of a poor op-win % Your opponents did badly and you will typically be ranked lower as a consequence of having known established weak opponents. Thats how the tie breaker works. I think you are ignoring the last part of Baby Mario's post. Just because under rather exceptional circumstances the player with the lowest op-win% does not sink further with an even lower op-win% does not refute what was said. You are never worse off by rank if an opponent drops rather than play on and lose. Will players get the subtlety in that as against the correct statement that losing players have on your op-win%? I don't think they will.

Which tournament was it?