I understand what you are getting at, but I'm just not sure that I 100% agree with you.
First, we do not have Pokemon Catcher. It appears as though we will get it. However, never take anything as a given.
If it goes to HGSS-on before national and nationals is extremely healthy and diverse, do not be surprised if they choose to not release Catcher. Our sets are not 100% the same as Japan. I think that after all of the outcry over the last 2ish years about sustained SP dominance, they will try to keep the format diverse. Introducing Pokemon Catcher will make a couple select decks broken. I also would not be surprised if we got a filler set with a trainer locking basic if Pokemon Catcher is released and a couple decks end up being broken. This could be a card like Spiritomb Ar or Gastly.
However, if Pokemon Collector is released I do not think it is the absolute death of Stage 2 decks (especially ones that run either a Stantler type, Reshiram, or Zekrom as a starter. Just think about it. Say I start Stantler and put two of the same basics on my bench. Then you Pokemon Catcher one of them and KO it. Now I still have one ready to be evolved through Rare Candy + Stage 2. Then Twins will also be open for use. Revive, Junk Arm, Rare Candy, Pokemon Collector and boom by the next turn I could have two Stage 2s set up. If that happens, it will be hard for Basics/Stage 1s to keep a OHKO game rolling.
I think that the speed will be tough to deal with but not an auto-loss.