this link was probably hard to see in the midst of the other walls of text, but it is very accessible and can explain the 'absurd probabilities actually happening" pretty well.
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/abioprob.html
there are a number of things to consider (from the article):
1) They calculate the probability of sequential trials, rather than simultaneous trials.
(millions of instances- mutations occuring many times in one individual, and many individuals existing, over many years...)
2) They misunderstand what is meant by a probability calculation.
(that it is an average, with millions of chances to peak or happen 'early', etc)
i really don't have a problem with the genetic mutations and their probabilities. flip the coin enough times... and it gets flipped a lot.
we have observed, even within the course of a few hundreds years, instances of change in animals that seems to be related to an enhanced ability to survive. moths in london turning greyer during the industrial revolution, pigeons in cities emitting a deeper, more resonant mating call compared with a few hundred years ago when all of them emitted the same type of high-pitched, melodic mating call, etc etc. there are lots of things we have seen as change, in many of the animals, and the changes happen to 'allow for better survival'. it is hard to deny these scenarios.
just look at dogs and cats and the short time they have been bred, and how different qualities can easily be 'bred out' as well as mutated outward. the probability seems to increase as like-individuals tend to mate more, and the expressed traits become more dominant and forthcoming over time. successful individuals (those at the top of the food chain) seem to be more likely to draw better organisms to mate with. the stronger male lion takes over the pack- the brighter peacock attracts the better female, so on and so forth- and if certain mutations or attributes help the individual more, it can be seen that they might be more likely to breed and encourage the attributes to display.
basically, there seems to be a misrepresentation of the probability, and how the probability works in nature. there can be other factors to increase 'evolution'/evolutionary adaptation, as well- as shown in breeding and modern, recent cases of animals changing rapidly in a rapidly changed environment.