Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Island Hermit...Why aren't you playing it?

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Muk Man said:
actually..."if you have 6 prizes
flip 2
if the 2 you flip are not the card you need. you now have a 25% (1/4) cahnce of getting the prize you need

with out hermit you only have a 16% (1/6).

They way i look at it, is that you have a 58% chance of getting the prize you need with hermit.
First you have a 33% chance that you will flip it over with hermit (2/6=1/3), if you dont you now have a 25%(1/4) chance of drawing it that gives you 2 seperate chances...33+25= 58% chance of getting the card you want /need (+/- your luck factor)
And thats only 1 hermit.....now add a second. or what if you ko an ex...???

"Men lie, women lie, but numbers dont lie" Jay Z
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Ehhhhh... No oO
Ok lets name the "events" (I dont know the correct mathematical term because English is not my native language. In German, its "Ereignis", I hope "event" is understood.)
A=You flip over the card you need by using Hermit
B=You draw the card you need as your prize.
Ok, P(A) is obviously 33,3 % as you pointed out. But what we want is P(B). P(B AND A) is
P(A) times P(B under the condition A) due to the defintion of conditional probability.
P(B under the condition A) is obviously 100%. If A happens, you flipped over the right card, so you will draw it with your next prize (if you're not stupid :wink: ). So P(B AND A) is
33% times 100% = 33%
Next we need is P(B and (NOT A)).
Thats again using the definiton of conditional probability
P(NOT A) times P(B under the condition (NOT A))
P(B under the condition (NOT A)) is, as you stated, 25%. One of 4 cards.
P(NOT A) is 1- P(A) = 66,6%
So, P(B and (NOT A)) is 25% times 66,6%= 16,6%
Next step is to use one of the axioms of Kolmogoroff:
When two events A and B are disjoint, P(A OR B) is P(A) + P(B)
P(( B AND (NOT A)) OR (B AND A)) is P(B AND (A OR (NOT A)) is P(B AND OMEGA) is P(B)
So, P(B) is 33%+16,6% is 50% (not only approximately, I rounded the percent numbers, 50 % is exact).
Not 58 %.
I've done this detailed... Hope it helps...
 
tolotos said:
Ehhhhh... No oO
Ok lets name the "events" (I dont know the correct mathematical term because English is not my native language. In German, its "Ereignis", I hope "event" is understood.)
A=You flip over the card you need by using Hermit
B=You draw the card you need as your prize.
Ok, P(A) is obviously 33,3 % as you pointed out. But what we want is P(B). P(B AND A) is
P(A) times P(B under the condition A) due to the defintion of conditional probability.
P(B under the condition A) is obviously 100%. If A happens, you flipped over the right card, so you will draw it with your next prize (if you're not stupid :wink: ). So P(B AND A) is
33% times 100% = 33%
Next we need is P(B and (NOT A)).
Thats again using the definiton of conditional probability
P(NOT A) times P(B under the condition (NOT A))
P(B under the condition (NOT A)) is, as you stated, 25%. One of 4 cards.
P(NOT A) is 1- P(A) = 66,6%
So, P(B and (NOT A)) is 25% times 66,6%= 16,6%
Next step is to use one of the axioms of Kolmogoroff:
When two events A and B are disjoint, P(A OR B) is P(A) + P(B)
P(( B AND (NOT A)) OR (B AND A)) is P(B AND (A OR (NOT A)) is P(B AND OMEGA) is P(B)
So, P(B) is 33%+16,6% is 50% (not only approximately, I rounded the percent numbers, 50 % is exact).
Not 58 %.
I've done this detailed... Hope it helps...
Click to expand...

ok thank you...
so by your detailed math playing 1 island hermit, gives you a 50% chance of getting any exact card in you prizes... and thats only if you take 1 prize... does that mean that if you ko an ex and take 2 prizes you have a 75% chance... if so...How could anyone say island hermit is not worth the play?
 
No. No. The first Hermit gets you 50% (as I already told you), but the next one gets you twice that (since it's the 2nd hermit) minus the 6 cards in play, or 94%. Adding the 1st and 2nd together you get 144% or 144/100. So, you take the square root of that, which is 12/10. Invert just as before and that gives you 10/12 or 5/6. Not 75%.
 
hey toby, like say you have 1 star in your deck and you use island hermit and you flip 2 cards over. wat is the chance of having the star in your prices?
 
flariados said:
hey toby, like say you have 1 star in your deck and you use island hermit and you flip 2 cards over. wat is the chance of having the star in your prices?
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Exactly, it's slightly less than 1 in 10
 
flariados said:
hey toby, like say you have 1 star in your deck and you use island hermit and you flip 2 cards over. wat is the chance of having the star in your prices?
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You didn't really give enough information to solve the problem. Say, it's your turn 1, and you're playing second, the other player didn't Mulligan, without doing anything else with your deck (like activating Jirachi DX, etc.) you play Hermit and draw 2 cards, you then flip 2 cards over. If your star isn't among any of the cards you saw, the probability is 1/12 of having the star prized.
 
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flariados said:
So lets say there are 18 cards left in your deck and with island hermit, 16 cards do you need more information?
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There are 18 cards prior to Hermit, you haven't revealed any prizes, and you have yet to see your star? After playing Hermit and still not seeing your star, it is 1/5 to be prized. This situation is virtually impossible in today's game. As soon as you play any searching trainer (Transceiver, Mentor, Researcher, Dual Ball, Lanette's, Outing, etc.), or any searching pokepower (Luvdisc, Mawile, Fearow d, Nidoqueen d, etc.), you will know whether or not the star is prized. (You are also probably getting killed this game, so what does it really matter?)
 
flariados said:
just want to know some percentages so I look and see if I want to play Island Hermit.
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I don't think you're asking the right question then. I don't see Hermit as a viable way to see what is prized versus what is in the deck. Not only is playing searching trainers and pokemon (Fearow d, et al) more effective (as in100% effective), but there are many more of these mechanisms, and you get the benefit for free (it's just a normal part of Mentoring, or whatever).

The advantage is getting to select the prized card you want. If you have 6 prizes and you play, you increase the probability from 1/6 to 3/6 of getting a single missing card (a star or whatever). If you have 3 prizes left, you increase the probability from 1/3 to 3/3 of getting a single missing card (a star or whatever). Whoops: I almost said something useful.
 
if your not running the holon engine, go ahead and toss a couple of these in, your going to be using bad pull cards anyway...
 
Even Mr. Numbers himself just gave the numbers that support Island Hermit's side effect being very powerful.

And yet, the detractors still say nothing better than "LOL ITS ONLY 2 CARDS SO IT MUST BE BAD", for all intents and purposes.

lol @ web boards...
 
Tagrineth said:
Even Mr. Numbers himself just gave the numbers that support Island Hermit's side effect being very powerful.

And yet, the detractors still say nothing better than "LOL ITS ONLY 2 CARDS SO IT MUST BE BAD", for all intents and purposes.

lol @ web boards...
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The ability to increase your odds of finding a "missing" isn't a very strong argument. No doubt these sorts of experiences stick in ones mind, which is why being objective is difficult. The strongest arguments have yet to be made.
 
I've just had way too many moments where my friend Dane would rip that key last Flareon out of his prizes to KO me FTW.
 
Tagrineth said:
I've just had way too many moments where my friend Dane would rip that key last Flareon out of his prizes to KO me FTW.
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Availability heuristic. A type of cognitive bias >_>
 
ryanvergel said:
Availability heuristic. A type of cognitive bias >_>
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I consider myself to be somewhat educated...but i have know idea of what you just said:confused:
i can imply by the terms "availability" and "cognitive bias" what you might be saying...but realyy what does that mean?
 
I was playing a game against a deck.
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As opposed to playing a game against a fried pickle? lol j/k

It's just not the best there is. It's nto horrible, but I really cant see either effect being good. TVR, Mary (In Some decks), Adventurer, Fieldworker, and Cozmo's Discovery even has teh CHANCE to draw more than it, and i cant see teh prize thing helping that much. If there's something prized that is so needed, so gamebreaking that you cant win without it, you are probably nto gonan win anyway =/
 
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