You say you will win by sniping pixies....thats because you assume they will drop the Pixies for you to snipe. You also assume they will drop Scythers to be sniped.
It is indeed safe to assume they would drop Pixies for the sniping. Artisan Beagles too. Or else what? Top deck everything to match LuxChomp's speed? Deck stack? Nice one, but not happening. Pixie drops are part of the game, Uxie and Azelf are notable paratroopers in this sense. And LuxChomp thrives on this norm, making it a deck for the format.
BTS doesn't show up all the time. Scyther might be laid down in the meantime. Being too conservative cramps Uxie drop potential and leaves your energy attachment a turn behind, which is possibly fatal since you're not a single energy maestro like Machamp. We will see many stray Scythers for not only the sniping, but also for dragging up and a cheap flash impact smackdowns by our metal-resisting friend, the Luxray GL Lv. X. No energy discards or Double Dragon Rush manoeuvring required. Clean and simple.
chrataxe said:
I say its easy to drop Scyther after a judge with an active Garchomp and no Garchomp on the bench and be relatively safe that it won't be sniped. I know this to be quite true from running Steelix. If I want to drop Chansey or Onix, I wait until I'm fairly certain it can't be sniped....of course, that assumes I don't WANT it sniped.
I say its easy to get a Judge in the opening hand, when disruption is ideal to stop the early game sniping, when the Scizor Prime list actually has a grand total of one judge? Nice one man, check the context. This ain't Steelix Prime where you can open with your favourite Sableye and chain hand refreshes in the form of Judge to get your beloved Metal Snake out. Not happening with this Metal Mantis, not happening.
One more thing, it's harder to snipe Chansey and Onix for the OHKO, not without a Crobat G drop, an uncommon gift this early in the game. Unlike Pixies, they morph into higher hps versions readily and easily as opposed to the occasional post KO Uxie Lv. X front and back sequence, lessening your ability to steal back a prize once you've missed it. Pixies, Smeargles, and the odd Skarmory make for tasty treats not only for Garchomp C, but also accessible goodies for Luxray GL, thanks to their lower hp, giving you more options to take easier prizes even post-Judge, as compared to Steelix, where benched stuff are hardcore. Remember, it's just a Scizor Prime deck, not a Steelix Prime deck.
chrataxe said:
Another thing that LC players don't seem to get is that just because you GOT a prize, doesn't mean you TOOK a prize. I can EASILY give up 5 przies to LC with my Steelix deck and still steam roll LC. The key is, the only prizes you get are the ones I give you. Now, that works a bit better with Steelix because Steelix and Blissey both have high HP and I can heal both with Herbs and Nurse Call. While Scizor doesn't have that advantage, it still has the ability to bait you into taking prizes they WANT you to take while leaving alone their Scizor.
Look, this is how it pans out. Once upon a time, I ran a Gyarados deck against my friend John who ran a Steelix Prime deck. I run no Warp Points, no Pokemon Reversals, no access to the bench whatsoever. I outsped Steelix Prime and took 5 prizes.Then he curbstomped me the next 15 minutes. He lived happily ever after. The End. Now try this. Once upon a time, I ran a LuxChomp deck against my friend John who ran a Scizor Prime deck. I outsped his deck and disrupted his set up and took 5 prizes. Then he took a belted Scizor Prime with 4 Special Metal Energy and KO-ed my Garchomp C Lv. X. I took a Luxray GL Lv. X out with a Bright Look and a Thrash Bolt to the face of a poor Uxie. I lived happily ever after. Moral of the story: tanks hate snipers, draggers and the like.
Another thing, Steelix has Life Herbs, Moo Moo Milk, heavy duty Onix, Steelix, Chansey, Blissey, Nidoqueen, and everything in between that makes easy prizes difficult. This costs us a few valuable prizes which can throw big wrenches in "six prizes in six turns" LuxChomp. We don't see that in LuxChomp. Erik Nance, who championed Steelix to be an effective anti-LuxChomp, has clearly drawn the line and indeed said that Scizor Prime will have problems with LuxChomp, underlining the difference. And in many of his 10 games, u see dead Pixies, Scythers and everything in between. Consistent with what I have playtested.
Your only out is to have two fully charged Scizor Prime on the field, ONLY. Are you going to get that when LuxChomp keeps disrupting you? Unlikely. And that is what makes the matchup unfavourable. Any wayward Scizor Prime on the OHKO path with be poisoned, taken away, or jet shoot-ed for the greater good, while Luxray GL Lv. X takes multiple prizes while tanking with metal resistance as you slowly accumulate energy for the OHKO potential. Complete with Poke Turn and Healing Breaths, as well as the possible instant KO Blaziken or instant solution Drifblim UD, I don't see why "leaving alone their Scizor" would be in the best interests of the Scizor Prime player. In fact it would be advantageous for the LuxChomp player.
chrataxe said:
And, I realize you will most likely reply with some witty comment about how great you are and how well you've tested, but I can also attest to many different matches against many different LC players, they ALWAYS go for the easy prizes. Burn Crobats and Poke Turns to get 3 KO's, lets see how many more prizes you can take when you are getting OHKO'ed and not taking any KO's since you expended all of your resources. All I meant by my ridiculous scenario was, the match up isn't that bad, late game, Garchomp won't take any prizes when there is only 2 Scizors in play.
Going for the easy prizes is what the deck does. It is an effective strategy. And unlike Steelix Prime, burning bats and turns to ensure that is less usual, owing to poor bench sitters. Poke Turns are used to deny prizes in fact, making the use of it less frequent, and goes a long way to conserve resources for the late game, unlike what you envisioned. Scizor Prime will take a long time to go OHKO mode, especially against a metal-resisting 110 hp Luxray GL Lv. X supplemented by healing breath and poke turns, enough to take a significant lead to be safe in the more perilous late game, where the playing field might be levelled, but it is a case for a "little too late". That's not even talking about Drifblim UD and Blaziken FB techs, which I'm sure will make the late game a great waste of the Scizor Prime player's earlier efforts. Your supposed matchup mentions of LuxChomp players you have seen actually helps me to explain in greater depth, the effectiveness of LuxChomp against this matchups by defining some of the traits that make LuxChomp, LuxChomp. And how it works against Scizor Prime no less.
Moreover, your scenario of only Scizors on the field is ridiculous and ideal, and it is not something you can weigh matchups objectively by. Face it, you won't get this every time, or even 50% of the time in playtesting, or in competitions that matter. That isn't going to net you a favourable matchup. It's going to scream "unlikely" and "improbable", and consequently "unfavourable" for the deck.