Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Moss' Theorem

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Flaming_Spinach

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Several Months ago, around the time of States, Moss_Factor posted something about the number of World-Class players getting into worlds this year compared to last year. for the record, this is exactly what he said...


I'm positive many great players won't be in worlds this year. I won't be surprised if 75% or more of last year's T32 don't win an invite this year. Any takers?


Later, Moss mentioned that people who aready won an invite or are from Japan were excluded from that statement since the first don't have to win trips, and there is no known way to check the second.

Although I'm pretty sure most other people on these forums quickly forgot this quote, I remembered it, and I always wanted to check wether it was right, if only I had the means.

Well, recently I found the means to check it, the full list of everyone invited to worlds (except the Japinese players) can be found here: http://op.pokemon-tcg.com/content/events/faqs/2005-2006/worlds_invitees.asp



Now down to business.



The top4 last year all won free invites back this year. A further 6 players out of the top32 were Japinese. This leaves us with 22 players we can legitimatelly check.

According to my research, the people who got the following places at worlds last year are not going back this year (unless they win the grinder).

5th, 8th, 11th, 13th, 15th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 28th.

That's 10/22, or just less than 50%. Apparently, about twice as many as Moss expected won invites back.



That's pretty much all there is to say. I'm not really trying to make a statement, I just thought I should share my research and answer a question that was posted 5 months ago.
 
Acually, the 5th place finisher does have his invite this year.
 
Flaming_Spinach said:
Later, Moss mentioned that people who aready won an invite or are from Japan were excluded from that statement since the first don't have to win trips, and there is no known way to check the second.
You mean you don't know anyone who understands Japanese who is willing to go to the Japanese website to find out?

Wow, there are no Japanese players here, Japan has a completely different OP program, we are totally left in the dark about Japan aren't we? It's like some mysterious place...
 
Moss' hypothesis would only be true if we were to assume that world '05 had "many great players." Perhaps it is world '06 that is to be greatly populated by the greats, many of which were absent in '05.

Just pointing that out.
 
I think it's rather interesting that around onoy 50% made it.
That means 1 of two things, possibly:

either those who made the t32 last year were not very good, or not good enough to repeat making worlds again
or the people who made it into t32 last year WERE good, and the system in place now is not a good representation of skill

I guess it's up to opinion as to which one of the two conclusions is more valid?
 
Possibly that the people from T32 last year just did not do as well in this format. They thought they did so well with their worlds deck last year that they would do well with it this season but they where wrong
 
Absoltrainer said:
Possibly that the people from T32 last year just did not do as well in this format. They thought they did so well with their worlds deck last year that they would do well with it this season but they where wrong

Why do you make the assumption that they used the same decks this format?

Any evidence to support that conclusion?
 
Well that's why I said possibly cause I meant that some people may have done it I do not have proof but most people I know try to use deck they have a lot of luck and wins with. I should reword that a bit though

It may be possible that some people from T32 last year just did not do as well in this format. They may have thought they did so well with their worlds deck last year that they would do well with it this season. I am not saying that did happen but it is possible
 
Hmm wasn't really a Theorem was it? More of a bet. Which Moss would have lost!

I'm positive that many great players don't make it to worlds every single year that worlds takes place. But that is surely just stating the obvious.
 
NoPoke said:
Hmm wasn't really a Theorem was it? More of a bet. Which Moss would have lost!

I'm positive that many great players don't make it to worlds every single year that worlds takes place. But that is surely just stating the obvious.

We have to wonder why that happens, though.

It seems weird to me that you can T32 worlds, or win a REGIONALS (harder than a states or a GC) and not get a trip to worlds...

Better yet, it seems weird that you can be one of 300+ players in 15+ and get LESS of a chance than the tiny 10- category. ;x

This invite system is all messed up. Not to mention the age divisions are messed up. I think it's an obvious sign when 50% of the top 32 of worlds don't even have a trip this year. I think it's a problem when there are REGIONAL winners without trips. 13 Regionals, 52 GCs. It's obviously harder to win a regional, but they don't get a trip and GCs do? Bad move in my book.
 
ryanvergel said:
We have to wonder why that happens, though.

It seems weird to me that you can T32 worlds, or win a REGIONALS (harder than a states or a GC) and not get a trip to worlds...

Better yet, it seems weird that you can be one of 300+ players in 15+ and get LESS of a chance than the tiny 10- category. ;x

This invite system is all messed up. Not to mention the age divisions are messed up. I think it's an obvious sign when 50% of the top 32 of worlds don't even have a trip this year. I think it's a problem when there are REGIONAL winners without trips. 13 Regionals, 52 GCs. It's obviously harder to win a regional, but they don't get a trip and GCs do? Bad move in my book.

I made a remark about that a while ago....

http://pokegym.net/forums/showthread.php?t=35452
 
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