The Dark Toxicroak
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To provide a fun, positive tournament experience for all Play! Pokémon members, we may rotate some older sets out of the Modified format earlier in the year than the typical September 1st rotation date.
The next Modified format will include expansions from HeartGold & SoulSilver to the present. Under normal circumstances, this rotation would take effect September 1st, 2011. However, should we deem it necessary to maintain a healthy competitive environment, the rotation would take effect on July 1st instead. The final decision will be announced in early June.
Looking all over online Pokemon communities there seems to be some sort of feeling that Sabledonk is the main issue and that is what TPCi is looking for these battle roads. I really don't think any of that is true.
Although Sabledonk seems to be over powered I feel if people take this route at BR's it will fall short of what TPCi is looking for and here is why
Although there have been statistical analyses and video showing how brutally this deck can rip apart others there are certain things that will almost always beat it. Since everyone seems to feel like mass playing Sabledonk at BRs will force this rotation it gives more incentive to those not playing in Nationals or worlds to play a deck that just focuses on beating sabledonk in order to win some battle roads. They don't care about a rotation they just want to win some prizes and will do whatever it takes to do so. If sabledonk faces a deck with both a high sableye and spiritomb count as well as decently high hp basics it will lose. No i don't want someone to do statistics regarding that statement there has been enough of that already. If everyone is saying SABLEDONK IS THE PROBLEM it may make TPCi feel that if Sabledonk doesn't perform well at BRs there is no reason to rotate and that just isn't the case.
Sabledonk statistically will lose around 40% of its games. Just that number alone should make people weary about spreading how this is the problem. It sounds impressive when you say Sableye has a 60-40 match up vs everything in the field but that isn't really what these odds mean. Sableye has neither a good nor bad match up vs anything. A way of explaning this is some people say dialga is 50-50 across the board. That doesn't mean that dialga will win 50 percent of its matches and lose 50. It means that a match up will go either way depending on who plays better. With sableye these statistics are only for whether it wins or loses. 60 percent it loses 40 percent it wins. I am going to use a really basic example that may be realistic in brs. with a 60% chance of winning out of 5 rounds you should go 3-2. You definitely won't hit top cut like that.
Everyone playing the same deck proves nothing. If everyone is playing sabledonk obviously it will win. That won't give TPCi anything to work with. If there is a very nice field and one deck rules them all then that is more likely going to help.
But wait... TPCi didn't say whether or not they were looking of a certain deck was too good... so why is everyone focusing on that? They said if the format proves to be unhealthy and they mention fun and positive.
I honestly think that they are not looking for sabledonk. They are looking for whether or not people are having fun and positive experiences and that the format is healthy.
SO what do I think people should be doing. Play a good deck. One you feel can win in this format. One you worked really really hard to build. Write a report. Make sure to mention every game that is lost on the first turn by who is going first. How it wasn't fun to win because you won due to a coin flip. How it wasn't enjoyable to have to play sableye due to the threat of sabledonk. Talk about how you spent all day walking around due to donks. Explain why you wouldn't enjoy nationals as much in this format.
There is so much you can do including play sabledonk if you want to. However imo Sabledonk isn't the threat here...
What do you guys think?
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