Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Poke is luck or skill?

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plaidlesspez said:
Jermy, how can you say that? So you're saying my deck building skills attributed to 1% of your ability to win worlds? The DECK was the biggest reason you won...
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Jeremy posted that... which means you shouldn't bother taking it seriously.
 
Luck or Skill depends on the macth up and the deck you are running. For example Queen it required little luck because it was built to be consistant also it was metagamed to have an advantage over the majority of Archtypes. A deck like Flariados is fast and consistant but it won't do squat against a pokemon with a GL and grass attacthed if you can't flip a ER2 to save your life. So really it is what deck your playing and what you will have to flip for the win.
 
in a match consisting of two player ach with similar and equal skill will have each match decide on luck. Otherwise, in a match consisting of a total n00b and the '05 winner of worlds, tghe odds are definantly in favor for the '05 winner of worlds. Another statistic of playing poke is deck building. A very well designed list being used by a n00b can beat a poor deck with a great player.
 
Flaming_Spinach said:
At Worlds last year, beating the top3 meant that you beat about 80% of the field. That's why it was possible to create a deck like Queen that just Pwned everything. But today, that's impossible.
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The top deck has a much higher % of the field than any deck did at the time of worlds last year. The rest is more varied but it is not at all impossible to think one deck could beat the full 30% of the field that is the best deck and 5/7 (about 72%) of the other decks to get a total of 80%.
 
i don't really know. I'd have to say 55% luck, 45%skill BECAUSE the + has all that matchup and autoloss and hands and stuff. then the skill kicks in.
 
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Shiloh Phoenix said:
which is why I lost to Alan schell by taking off my sunglasses in the T8.
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You'd have rather him read your hand to you again? :biggrin:

Luck will probably determine who wins on any given day, but skill will determine how well one places consistantly.

Unless your me, then everyone thinks my godly luck determined:
Consecutive second place finishes at Gyms in '04
T8 Nats '04
2 1st place regionals '05
T4 Gym (conceded the only one I played in) '05
T32 Nats '05
T16 Worlds '05
T16 Regional '06
T8, T4, 1st place Gym '06
 
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I had an epiphany an hour ago, so here we go...



Everything comes back to matchups.

Some matchups are based more on luck. Mostly those where 1 deck contains a Hard Counter to a major part of the other. For example, let's take Medicham and Draggytrode. Sure, Medicham has a HUGE advantage in the match, but Draggytrode CAN win, it just needs to get extremely lucky. Since the Draggytrode player can not pull off their usual strategy while Medicham is in play, you must rely on good topdecks and favorable flips to have any hope if winning.

Also, some decks are dependant almost entirelly on luck. Decks like Flariados that rely on a bunch of flips are hoping that the coin flips in their way. Of course, they can get really bad luck, regardless of what opponent they are playing.


Some matchups are more dependant on Skill. These are the ones where each person can get setup and use their powers to their full effect. Queen vs LBS could easily go either way depending on player skill and deck build. Topdecks and luck could play a large roll, but as long as each person can use their Quick Search and other powers each turn, skill will play a very large roll.


So... Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING comes down to matchups. If you get the good matchups you can easily get to the finals of any tournament. But if you get bad matchups, forget it. You're not making the finals.

All the player skill in the worlds will not get Rock-Lock to beat Medicham
 
Definitely more luck than skill at the moment. Your opening hand, your prizes, your matchup, your opponent's opening hand, etc. Need I go on?
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Yes, please. To explain how those things you mentioned are active "at the moment" and not, say, at any other time in the game's history.

I had an epiphany an hour ago, so here we go...



Everything comes back to matchups.
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You made a thread about this how long ago??

So... Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING comes down to matchups. If you get the good matchups you can easily get to the finals of any tournament. But if you get bad matchups, forget it. You're not making the finals.
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The same exact thing can be said about hands, draws, prizes, and probably coin flips. A more accurate statement would be, "Everything comes down to luck." And there I would agree: no amount of skill can overcome some rotten luck. You provide some examples yourself, of how random factors (other than matchup) can decide the game. Sometimes it can become hard to tell the difference between skill and persistent luck...
 
Zak - Yes, I made that thread long ago, but that was under the assumption -simply- that matchups mean everything.

My theory has gone under some revisions since then. Matchups are still the #1 factor, but now I am detailing how matchups effect each game, making some more dependant on luck and some more dependant on skill.
 
What are we looking at? the game as a whole? or actualy playing? The game as a whole requires lots of skill such as Metagaming/Deckbuilding/Cheating (Just Kidding). But when It comes down to games within themselves 9/10 it coems down to matchups and/or counters for certain decks Not to mention Anythign can loose to anythign if it doens setup or crappy draws. But all in all it comes down to skill, i witnessed a Mewlock/Lunasol Matchup the other day at my GC IMHO Mew is in a major advantage however they player had no idea what they were doing, Mew lock can have the game won 6/4 prizes T5 but the player had no idea what they were doing so... thats my input. but in my opinion Luck/Skill = 60/40 or even 70/30.
 
I would have to say its both skill and luck because if you dont have any skill what so ever and play tons of water and a bunch of random basics with no evolutions (You've got to have nothing to build with or be extremely stupid to do this) then its pure luck if you win but skill for the other person beating you.
 
It isn't about matchups. If you pick the right deck, you can avoid bad matchups. If you play well, you can overcome bad matchups. Sometimes one player has a big edge, but you took the gamble knowing that you COULD be paired up against any bad matchup when you filled out your decklist.
 
Moss Factor said:
It isn't about matchups. If you pick the right deck, you can avoid bad matchups. If you play well, you can overcome bad matchups. Sometimes one player has a big edge, but you took the gamble knowing that you COULD be paired up against any bad matchup when you filled out your decklist.
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Yes and no.

I've seen players win matches you'd think they should've lost, and vise versa. But in almost all those cases, the winning player was seriously a better player.

All things even (you're not playing against a Yamato-caliber player), matchups are important. I think last year's Worlds 15+ Top 4 proved that.
 
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