Realistic Metagame for US Nationals

[baby mario]

The word 'rogue' has pretty much lost all meaning these days.

 

[vaporeon]

I'm going to agree with Baby Mario here. People seem to forget that there is a BIG difference between 'Anti-Meta' and 'Rogue'. Anti Meta is where people play decks that exist for the reason of beating other Meta decks in the format. Anti Meta decks can be Rogue but can become Meta decks. Rogue, while they can fight against the Meta, it's not their purpose in existence. A rogue can fight against pretty much anything without worry but has nothing to do with the Metagame.

If I had to make a list with that in mind, I'll be like this.

30% Emboar Variants ( Mag Prime, etc)
25% Anti-Meta (Cinccino Variants, Lostgar, Yanmega Prime, Some Donphan builds, etc)
20% Rain Dance Variants ( Mag Prime, etc)
15% Donphan Variants (Machamp Prime, Yanmega, etc
5% Zekrom Variants (Donk, Speed, Late Game)
5% Rogue

I think I'm being generous with the numbers here. I don't think Zekrom will see play outside of Battle Roads and maybe Cities because of how inconsistent it can be and leaving little room from Rogue because most good Rogue decks will be a variation of some Meta Pokemon attackers. I'm using Donphan as my main attacker but it's still rogue.

Also put Raindance high in the list because Gatr Prime does not have weakness to Zekrom and can play around Donphans, Serperior Variants with SEL, any Emboar build and can use 3 very powerful Legend card with the help of Rainbow Energy. It's pretty low at 20 percent but a good Rain Dance build can rule the meta.

 

[sToRm07]

I'm calling it right now guys,

100% of the decks will have some kind of pokemon in them, if I can be so forward to presume.

 

[ALEXARD]

I would bet the popularity rankings are gonna be like this

1st Emboar Variants
2nd Zekrom Variants
3rd Donphan Variants
4th Gengar Variants

5th Zoroark Variants
6th Magnezone Variants
7th Feraligatr Variants
8th Tryranitar Variants

Other than gengar i cant see strategy, only heavy hitters for the tournament.

 

[pokesam128]

if i went to nats i would be the only one of my decks there it techs for everything and beats it

 

[Jahikoi]

Hi guys,
Not sure if this is the right place, but I hope to get some ideas and generate a discussion on coming up with a realistic metagame for US Nationals for HGSS-on format so that we can playtest.

So far, I am thinking something like this:
20% Magneboar
20% Reshiboar (Using Ninetales instead of Magnezone)
10% Rain Dance (Anything that uses Feraligatr (Prime) and Rain Dance)
10% DonChamp (Donphan (Prime) and Machamp (Prime))
10% Zekrom (most likely with Yanmega)
10% Mew and Gengar (Prime)
20% Others (Rogue)

What do you guys think?

My Guess...

20% Reshiboar
20% magneboar
15% Donphan/samurott or donphan/machamp
15% Zekrom donk (with or without yanmega)
10% Mewgar
20% Rogue

 

[NoPoke]

trainer heavy fire water and electric decks.... Magnezone prime as MVP. Maybe someone will break Vileplume. Winning decks to be very agressive and OHKO focused.

 

[Sir Bidoof]

Unless you're also counting the not-so-good players in your meta predictions, based on past nationals I doubt the meta will be 40% rogue. Emboar is going to be way more popular, I'd even say 50%+.

I consider rogue to be any deck that is not widely known about or played. This would include noob decks. I predict very few good rogues at Nationals, but definitely a lot of rogues, especially in such an unknown format.

Also, I think most people are being too specific in what will be popular. Personally I think ther will be a good amount of Donphan variants, but not all of them are going to be Donchamp, not by a long shot. Similarly, I predict There will be lots of combos with Emboar and some with Gator Prime, but a good chunk of them will be things that we aren't thinking of. That is why I think the term (Emboar variants) and (Donphan variants) need to be used to accurately describe what will be played.

 

[Victory Bell]

For anyone saying there will be 50% anything think about how many people that is. I'd say that is pretty excessive.

 

[Murkrow33]

I went to Regionals and asked:
If next format is HS-on, which deck will you run?
I figured most people would reply: "Heck, how should I know?"
But EVERYBODY I asked said that they would play Donaphan.
Expect alot of Donaphans at Nats.
P.S. I ran Reshiboar at a BR and beat Donchamp because he belted his Donaphan and attacked me twice.
I was still alive because Reshiram was belted and Snowpoint Temple was in play.
170 HP Basics all the way!!!!!!!
P.S. I then used outrage for 200 damage! (I had 160 damage on me and I was belted).
P.P.S. I won.

 

[Jahikoi]

I think I can go out on a limb and say at least 35% of the people will be playing Emboar variants.




I think around 15-20% of the people will be running some stupid deck which is stupidly stupid.

I think around 15% will be run Samurott/Donphan, just because it has fairly good matchups across the board.

I don't think Zekrom will get much use, although I consider it T2. The only decks I consider T1 are Reshiboar and Magneboar (both with RDL).



If I had to put money on a winner, I'd put it on a reshiboar which abused the attacking emboar.

 

[Magnechu]

I don't think any one deck has ever made up more than like 30% of the metagame at US Nationals, even GG when it and Empoleon were literally the ONLY good decks; there was still at least 50% of random stuff.

 

[Box of Fail]

I went to Regionals and asked:
If next format is HS-on, which deck will you run?
I figured most people would reply: "Heck, how should I know?"
But EVERYBODY I asked said that they would play Donaphan.
Expect alot of Donaphans at Nats.

If you were expecting people to say "heck, how should I know?", you probably thought that they hadn't put much thought into a HGSS-on format.

You were probably right.

P.S. I ran Reshiboar at a BR and beat Donchamp

P.P.S. I won.

...Really?!?!

 

[Ice'Cold]

I don't think any one deck has ever made up more than like 30% of the metagame at US Nationals, even GG when it and Empoleon were literally the ONLY good decks; there was still at least 50% of random stuff.

Mikey is correct, there hasn't been a single nationals I've played at where I've played the "favorite" deck more than twice. (before top cut)

 

[Pooka]

Normally it's almost impossible to predict the metagame for Nationals, and this year it's even more unpredictable. US Nationals is the first major tournament with the HS-on format, so there is no standard metagame in place yet. You probably shouldn't even waste time trying to figure out what other people are going to play. Figure out what decks are the best through testing, and make a choice based on that.

 

[sToRm07]

Canada nationals are a week before.

It is going to be interesting what will be played there. Hope nothing too broken comes out at the last second!

 

[CFOURCOLTSFAN]

I'd say percentages are going to be more like this

Magboar-25%
ReshiBoar-15%
LostGar-5%
Zekrom-10%
Donphan-15%
other metagame decks(t-tar,cincinno,gatr,floatzel etc.)-10%
rogue-20%
although i think the top tables will be like 50+ of emboar decks;p

 

[vegitalian]

Canada nationals are a week before.

It is going to be interesting what will be played there. Hope nothing too broken comes out at the last second!

It will - you have my word.

 

[Drew Holton]

Anyone that thinks there will be 20% plus of one deck is crazy. The metagame for nationals has always been pretty unique and diversified.

 

[sToRm07]

It will - you have my word.

You must be going to Canada Nationals. XD

if you are, good luck!

I hope my cool idea is not discovered!