My gut is telling me TM-On, but I have no logic to back that up lol. I strongly feel that the rotation is going to be Call of Legends on. I have quite a few things to back that up:
Before we even get into your facts, I've got to point out that your opening sounds contradictory. Generally speaking, when your "gut" tells you something, it is referred to as a "gut feeling". There is actually some research about that, but it is besides the point, since even though you did add some "facts" to support your assertion for CoL-On, but you still refer to it as a "feeling".
Yes, this is somewhat nitpicky but I had to point out the fact it is something of a pun. :lol: I forgot that CoL-On sounds like colon, which can be a punctuation mark (":") or a term for your large intenstine... "gut feeling". According to Wikipedia there are actually a few other definitions, one which might make this a "double pun" but... yeah enough of this.
Now to address your list of points:
1) Call of Legends is classified as its own set block. This makes it easier to retain but otherwise does not mean it
must be retained. It is a fact, but as far as "evidence" it is circumstancial at best.
2a) Likewise, that it is largley a reprint set could have been about retaining cards that would be healthy for the format, but it could also be about making certain cards more available or even as simple as needing a filler set (the latter of which we know is true - there were a number of cards that needed to be released before moving onto
Black & White). So again, this is circumstancial evidence; with the right additional information it becomes proof, but it is not proof by itself.
The specific cards you cite and points you make are not self-evident points. We have a format that currently favors Basic Pokemon quite heavily. A format without Dual Ball or Pokemon Collector is
not a new thing; at different points in the games history you either relied on raw draw power and luck to get the Basic Pokemon you needed, or had a "set-up" Pokemon to help start the game. The latter often aids Evolution decks because if a "set up" deck needs it, so does an aggro deck.
Without those two, I believe any Pokemon that lacks a three Energy Retreat Cost or has more than 90 HP cannot be searched out by anything but the effect of a Pokemon (be it attack or Ability), Ultra Ball or Poke Ball. My time is short so please forgive me if I merely missed a different option.
So it is possible to get the exact Pokemon you need first turn, but it is no where near as easy as it was... and that is
good. Even if we still had the Shaymin and Pachirisu, ZPS (and later varients like ZPST) just wouldn't be reliable enough to run anymore.
Now, while a deck that basically
must pull off a three Basic Pokemon (and three Energy) combo would suffer, if you need to get a lot of Basic Pokemon into play quickly, you've got appropriate opening attacks and just need the right combination of draw power and "Ball" cards. Cleffa most definitely did not make for a healthy format; it made for a flippy format when we don't have "raw power" cards to get around Sweet Sleeping Face, and ultimately contributed to lucky wins... one way or the other.
It doesn't matter if it technically breaks even in helping or hurting a player (though with its history of being run, it is pretty clear people only favor it when it is more of an advantage than a risk) the TCG doesn't need that much more "luck". I don't want to win because my opponent woke up and I am donking their sily "baby" Pokemon, and I don't like losing because I can't draw into Catcher (or before that, get "heads" on a Reversal) while Sweet Sleeping Face stalls and stalls.
There's "luck of the draw" and there's competent deck design. I heard the same argument for why it was sooooo important to have a card like Pidgeot (FireRed/LeafGreen) legal, and I hated what that did to the game. Suddenly you didn't have to "work" for your TecH or your splashes, so a single card counter ruined a lot of the card pool (since Pidgeot could grab that counter). Yes it made a lot of decks "viable", but in the "well I'll just Quick Search a counter/come-from-behind card".
This is a trading card game; luck of the draw is supposed to be a part of it, and when the card pool is well designed you simply have to build a deck to minimize that luck. MD-On had a ludicrous amount of draw power, while HGSS-On still has primo Supporter based draw power coupled with focusing on big Basic Pokemon and ample search power for them (even search power that isn't Supporter based). It may sound scary for those who know nothing different, but its okay.
3) Others have pointed out that the Professor Cup didn't prove anything, and you weren't even sure it did yourself, so I'll move on.
4) They "like" to rotate about four sets per season. "Like" isn't the same thing as "must", and it tends to be more like a mean (mathmatical average) or mode (most common amount) than a hard and fast rule. Rotating five sets is not out of the ordinary, as is rotating only three.
You don't seem to understand that banning select cards
is a formula for failure. Literally it means "oops, we thought we had it figured out but we didn't"
and it doesn't work so well in most games. Yu-Gi-Oh is a great example of selective banning failing, and while it can be functional, it is never good. Pokemon has only selectively banned two cards from Modified, and I hope they never have to again. If you really think "selective banning" is good, just favor more reprint sets; it's the
smart way of achieving an almost identical result.
Given the focus on keeping the game accessible to all ages, selective Bannings are a nightmare; rotation is so simple they can print it in instruction booklets... and it remains correct while the format is intact. With bans you never know when a card might become illegal.
If you're specifically referring to last format... Sabledonk was just the straw that broke the camel's back. The whole format was a mess; some people loved the mess, but other's hated it. Apparently TPC wasn't fond of it either.
I wouldn't mind Call of Legend being the cut-off point, but since it requires Japan to issue the set to maintain, and it contains old terminology, it makes more sense to pitch it. I mean, even if we kept it it is better to reprint everything with updated text! Most of the set is hopeless filler anyway, so we might be able to fit everything really desirable into the next wave of promos anyway. I doubt we'd agree exactly on what is desirable, of course.