What is Random and How to Shuffle, or Why You Shouldn't Declump

[NoPoke]

Otaku: As a supporter of declumping can I ask that you do not put words into my mouth. I do not view declumping as "all you are doing is wasting time". I have argued that for those that are poor at shuffling a brief declump is more likely to lead to distributions that are closer to statistical expectation than leaving the clumps of triples and quads together and hoping that more of a process that isn't working well will magically fix the root cause that created the clumps. My position is that few pokemon players shuffle well and that this gets worse as the players age reduces.

"Supporter of declumping" is probably too strong. I don't see declumping as evil or a sign of cheating. I do expect declumping to be kept brief.

 

[Swordfish1989]

Otaku: As a supporter of declumping can I ask that you do not put words into my mouth. I do not view declumping as "all you are doing is wasting time". I have argued that for those that are poor at shuffling a brief declump is more likely to lead to distributions that are closer to statistical expectation than leaving the clumps of triples and quads together and hoping that more of a process that isn't working well will magically fix the root cause that created the clumps. My position is that few pokemon players shuffle well and that this gets worse as the players age reduces.

"Supporter of declumping" is probably too strong. I don't see declumping as evil or a sign of cheating. I do expect declumping to be kept brief.

Except seeing clumps is perfectly normal, therefore the process that created clumps is normal too..

Seriously, label all cards in your deck from 1-60, get a random number generator to order those 60 cards for you, order your deck to match it, and tell me how many clumps you see. And that's a perfectly random deck.

 

[NoPoke]

Except seeing clumps is perfectly normal, therefore the process that created clumps is normal too..

Seriously, label all cards in your deck from 1-60, get a random number generator to order those 60 cards for you, order your deck to match it, and tell me how many clumps you see. And that's a perfectly random deck.

Seeing clumps of triples and quads of pokemon, trainers, and special energy is NOT NORMAL. Please go back and look at the simulation data I posted.

 

[Kayle]

Last time this conversation came up, I actually built a python simulator that was made to study arbitrary decks and their distribution. I never had time to run a full simulation on it so I'm glad someone else did...


...but my preliminary findings were pretty much exactly spot on with NoPoke's. Pairs of cards are fairly common. Any more that is not.

I don't understand any part of the argument in this thread, though. Maybe because I have a pretty strong grasp of what random means and so it confuses me when other people don't. To me, random is pretty simple; if you're randomizing your deck, you are rearranging it blindly in such a way that you do not know what order it will end up afterward. For it to be a fair shuffle, every outcome must be possible.

Note that that does not mean EQUALLY possible. Just possible. When you run 12 basics and 8 energy it's POSSIBLE to get 6 energy and one basic in your starting hand... but very, very, very unlikely.

I really want to spend more time on this but I'm really late for work... I'll be back...

Edit: Ah, here's something I think might be tripping people up.

When I say "you do not know what order it will end up in", that's different from, you don't have an idea what the order will be like. If you can say anything with absolute certainty about your distribution of cards that isn't obvious ("there will be at least one basic in my final opening hand"), your distribution is not random. Being able to say that your deck will produce a certain order or sequence when shuffled means you aren't randomized. Saying I haven't drawn all my energy yet and I only have four cards left so I PROBABLY will get one off of this Cheren is still random.

 

[Otaku]

Otaku: As a supporter of declumping can I ask that you do not put words into my mouth.

Did I put words in your mouth?

No, really; I remember citing Raen's post, not yours. Maybe I keep missing where I did it (seriously, I've done that before -_-') so let me know.

Gonna resist dissecting your post and just remind you that declumping is only legal when you shuffle thoroughly enough to have made it nothing more than a "good luck ritual". If declumping is actually affecting the results of your shuffle, then it is cheating. Most players don't shuffle well enough; the correct response is to keep encouraging proper shuffling and if necessary, penalizing improper shuffling... just like we do incorrectly listing the contents of your deck on your deck list. Just like we do using illegal randomizers or sleeves.

I refer to it as "wasted time" because of the above; if it has any bearing on your deck order (no matter how fast or slow) then it is illegal, and is only legal when it amounts to a "good luck ritual". It doesn't matter how long it takes; it might be milliseconds but its still wasted time. Even if someone could declump in no time at all, then it would just be "wasted effort" or a "wasted action".

---------- Post added 07/08/2013 at 09:23 PM ----------

Seeing clumps of triples and quads of pokemon, trainers, and special energy is NOT NORMAL. Please go back and look at the simulation data I posted.

Define "normal". No, really; we are dealing with statistics and a lot of words can have different (but still legitimate) meanings, and that is before common but incorrect usage.

It is possible to properly randomize your deck and end up with triples and quads. It isn't likely, but is is an legitimate, possible result and that is how I understood Swordfish1989's comment (of course, I can't read his mind, haven't been discussing this on the side... I can't even remember if I "he" is a "he" (and time is a bit short so I can't follow the links to be sure).

If you are manipulating your deck to avoid or reduce the probability of a result it isn't random, excluding those boundaries imposed by the game rules (e.g. you aren't allowed to do things like randomly shuffle cards in and out of your deck, you are supposed to shuffle due to reasons other than random muscle spasms, etc. as I know that tripped up a different poster).

FYI: I discourage somewhat vehemently declumping. The rules of the game allow a player to declump provided proper procedures that render it inconsequential are followed, and thus so do I. I even would encourage someone who already does it regularly to continue doing it at a high level event if they haven't successfully broken the habit; at that point not engaging in "the ritual" will likely prove too distracting and hurt your performance.