But again, I welcome anyone to point out the flaws in my logic.
I fear I'll prove myself a fool, but I'll try.
I fear you are taking too broad and too long term a view. Sure if it fails, they can always try again, but that will probably be at least half a decade from now for the next attempt. At the same time, the most important group (that is likely to actually play the online game) are the ones who have been getting frustrated with the Beta testing.
The public has fickle memories and attention spans, but the
fan base is often the worst of both worlds: they'll remember "the bad" a decade later while forgetting the most recent "good" pretty easily. Generally speaking, this kind of program wants a lot of users, right? If the players and collectors are alienated from it
now, I'd say there is a good chance they will remember, and that leaves only the casual Pokemon crowd that barely plays or collects, the kind I like to label "Random Little Kids".
Unless its changed since I was in college (or my memory is faulty), in general a satisfied customer tells about three people, while a
dissatisfied customer tells about 10! So even though there are significantly more hypothetical players out there, those that aren't the kind to have already tried the game, they are
hypothetical. With the negative talk over the online game right now, I am get the impression a lot of players aren't going to bother. As for the people who don't play or at least regularly play the "real" TCG game, you have to ask yourself if someone who never bothered learning the game proper, or can't make time for playing the game at a local League, will bother with playing it on the computer? I mean if it is hassle free that's one thing, but it isn't and the codes are already in the boosters.
The beauty of TCGs has always been that as far as hobbies go, they are fairly affordable. That may not sound true, given how expensive
Mewtwo EX is right now, but usually a good (but not BDIF) deck is significantly cheaper than a video game... and the system to run it. A good hunk of the TCG player base I met first hand were either to young to go online by themselves, or just had lousy comps/internet connections at home... or none at all. Plus even if the best decks are crazy expensive, booster packs are booster packs and I've seen some players settle for playing a budget deck, because a single lucky booster pull
paid for that pack. Anyway, so while the free aspect is enticing to these players, if they don't have a computer/good internet access, they still can't play. Players who have a good computer/internet access? The TCG is already competing against stuff like WoW and other online gaming. >.>
The biggest counterpoint is
surviving to adulthood. I mean the program. If it doesn't shape up fast, only a few diehards will keep at it, and if only a few diehards keep at it, will it retain funding? You are totally right that many companies have bounced back from the edge... but many don't. In this case, with a specific product, look at your own examples:
specific product failed and the company had to
launch something different later. So if PTCGO fails, the entity we know it as is probably dead. As is, I am surprised Nintendo didn't make this some sort of inexpensive WiiWare/DS/3DS download game to keep it on their own hardware. I'd almost prefer that, to be honest - sure it is nice to have it on the computer, but what good is it if someone's computer is so old it can't run it (or run it very well). That's what I thought was wrong with mine until I realized almost everyone else was suffering the same problems.
Ideally, something that was available for download on the Nintendo consoles would be nice, as well as a compatible computer version but that is probably too much of a hassle, especially given the troubles plaguing the game already.
tl;dr: Dissatisfied customers talk, kids who just get packs and never play or collect aren't much more likely to play the online game, so if things keep going as rough as they have been, the PTCGO might fail to get the loyal base it needs to justify itself to the accountants. You're right we'll probably see another attempt later, but I doubt that would occur sooner than five years from now.
