Sabledonk - math and analyzation
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toxictaipan
New Member
That's not a fair question.
I can´t see why there shouldn´t be used decks like sablelock. I don´t think the main post metioned the problem that you are unable to use seeker if you use pokemon collector so spiritomb won´t be useless.
NoPoke
Active Member
The "frustrating large number" load of basics approach. just how many do you need?
35 basics and 25 other junk...
you mulligan (25 nCr 7) / (60 nCr 7) of the time =0.0012 so I'm going to call that ZERO
you get a single basic (35 nCr 1) * ( 25 nCr 6) / (60nCr 7) = 0.02
you get two basics (35 nCr 2) * ( 25 nCr 5) / (60nCr 7) = 0.08
... the hypergeometric works too = HYPGEOMDIST(2,7,35,60)
3of 35 basics = 0.21
4 of 35 basics = 0.31
5 of 35 basics = 0.25
6 of 35 basics = 0.11
7 of 35 basics = 0.02
So 4 or more with 35 in the deck = 0.69
===
similar math or a spreadsheet gets you
4 or more with 30 basics in the deck = 0.50
4 or more with 25 basics in the deck = 0.32
4 or more with 20 basics in the deck = 0.16 (0.17 accounting for mulligans)
20 basics is not enough.
25 basics and you still lose a third of the games vs Sableye-donk.
30 basics and you still lose a quarter of the games vs Sableyedonk.
35 basics should do the trick to avoid losing T1. But then what?
35 basics and 25 other junk...
you mulligan (25 nCr 7) / (60 nCr 7) of the time =0.0012 so I'm going to call that ZERO
you get a single basic (35 nCr 1) * ( 25 nCr 6) / (60nCr 7) = 0.02
you get two basics (35 nCr 2) * ( 25 nCr 5) / (60nCr 7) = 0.08
... the hypergeometric works too = HYPGEOMDIST(2,7,35,60)
3of 35 basics = 0.21
4 of 35 basics = 0.31
5 of 35 basics = 0.25
6 of 35 basics = 0.11
7 of 35 basics = 0.02
So 4 or more with 35 in the deck = 0.69
===
similar math or a spreadsheet gets you
4 or more with 30 basics in the deck = 0.50
4 or more with 25 basics in the deck = 0.32
4 or more with 20 basics in the deck = 0.16 (0.17 accounting for mulligans)
20 basics is not enough.
25 basics and you still lose a third of the games vs Sableye-donk.
30 basics and you still lose a quarter of the games vs Sableyedonk.
35 basics should do the trick to avoid losing T1. But then what?
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Denjin Hadou
New Member
Dear ladies and gentlemen posting in this thread, it seems some of you have been hiccupping when it comes to grammar. The word I belive you're trying to use here is "lose", not "loose". One does not release upon allowing the donk player to setup for the OTK, nor would one unfasten upon getting donked. You could make an arguement that one could become free from that game after receiving the donk, but that would be about it.
Mini-rant aside, I imagine iDonk will go the way of other similar donk decks and fail to reach top cut and relegate itself to a big annoyance to those who need to travel quite a ways for big tournaments.
Mini-rant aside, I imagine iDonk will go the way of other similar donk decks and fail to reach top cut and relegate itself to a big annoyance to those who need to travel quite a ways for big tournaments.
Denjin Hadou
New Member
That's terrible to hear. Also yes, I realize where Yoshi is from and can give him that benefit of a doubt.
the_sniper
New Member
This deck will be EVERYWHERE at Nationals and to say it will fail to reach top cut is ludicrous!! I wonder if you fully understand the problem sableye causes with the new rules changes in an already luck based format?
Or just how many players will sit down at the table for a match and NOT get ONE turn!!
Things WILL get better- but not until uxie and sableye are rotated or banned- and not until then.
This is the first time ever I have not been excited about nationals :frown:
Ninjask88
<a href="http://pokegym.net/forums/showpost.php?p=
Well if it does go to where it is just Sableye, then I shall try the many Pokemon Approach.
Assuming that the basics will help you get the Gyarados out, then you set up the 'dos and go town. I am working on a tentative list and will see what happens. So far it will most likely have:
4 Magikarp
4 Gyarados
4 Unown R
4 Combee SF
2 or 3 Unown Q
3 or 4 Regice
4 Chatot MD
4 Deoxys Defense Form (Just to fill up space)
2 Deoxys Speed Form (Just to fill up space)
4 Broken Time Space
2 Expert Belt
4 Pokemon Collector
2 Rescue Energy
4 Warp Point or Switch
4 Chansey
4 Blissey Prime
Something like that...
Then there is the problem of drawing into the cards.
Porii Sames
Active Member
???
I'm asking who is going to play a deck that everyone will whine about...
I was expecting all the bad players to possibly, the decent players to play it, and the great players about 50/50 make their own rogues/vilegar/dos/gigas/whatever.
TheDancingPeanut
New Member
I either won or lost four games by the second turn in FL regionals, and none of them involved Sableye.
The format's not going to be healthy until SPs rotate as well.
The format's not going to be healthy until SPs rotate as well.
toxictaipan
New Member
Because the only reason you'd care is to come back and say something like (or think it to yourself and not actually post it, whatever), "Well, you can't whine about it if you're going to play it!" which isn't fair to say in context to a competitive environment. I explained that in the other thread.
I don't see any other reason to ask that kind of question.
Porii Sames
Active Member
No...
I was just curious, as there's been a LOT of talk about it, and I haven't heard of people that are ACTUALLY playing it for Nats.
I was just curious, as there's been a LOT of talk about it, and I haven't heard of people that are ACTUALLY playing it for Nats.
toxictaipan
New Member
So... People have to outright tell you that they're going to play a deck before you believe it will be a big deal?
The deck has crazy potential, just watch this. You don't need anyone to tell you that they're going to play the deck. It's GOING to happen.
Naki Feralkin
New Member
^^ Thats probably because everyone's been focusing on Regionals up to this point to even care about making this deck at this point in time.. You know, that one last tournament that took an inkling of skill?
Sableye donk will have an impact on the metagame, but right now it is overrated.
A good counter deck could be palkia lock with 4 sableye. It has like 24 basic and lot to search for basic, can make sableye donk if opponent has 1 basic. If built well it have a fine matchup against many decks and is about 35-40% against luxchomp with 3 luxray gl and 40-50% if there is 2 luxray gl.
A good counter deck could be palkia lock with 4 sableye. It has like 24 basic and lot to search for basic, can make sableye donk if opponent has 1 basic. If built well it have a fine matchup against many decks and is about 35-40% against luxchomp with 3 luxray gl and 40-50% if there is 2 luxray gl.
ok i guess your right about me not defining it
bdif= a deck that can constantly win tournaments and top cut a good bit more than other decks
lets look at luxchomp for a bit and assume it beats other decks about 60% of the time
why can it still top cut constantly?
because some people who run it build better lists and play it better than others, making them win closer to 90% of the time
sabledonk on the other hand will do what it can with very little skill involved. making it a lot harder for sabledonk to win more than 65% of the time
even if the most skilled player in the world runs the deck, all he can do is hope he goes first and gets the donk
yes its in sabledonks favor, but its still like flipping a coin with it all depending on the opening hands and flips
Cyrus
Iron Chef - Master Emeritus
True, this format as a whole is stale and unhealthy.
But be that as it may, there is a difference between "unhealthy" and "dead." If nothing is done, then this format is dead for the rest of the season. And since few people are interested in purchasing or playing a dead format, the lack of action on P!P's part (with or without PCL's permission) means a recognizable punch to their bottom line. Who on Earth will buy a Worlds 2011 deck with nothing but Sableye lists in it?
SP is its own isolated problem, and while it has led to an unhealthy state of things, it pales in comparison to the problem before us.
NoPoke
Active Member
@Spidy, I don't believe there has ever been a 90% deck in the history of pokemon.
Much as in many competative sports a small difference in skill/deck will eventually tell in the long game. Luxchomp has a decent end game if you are careful with your resources. It has a super engine and is fast. It is widely played too. That is why it wins.
Much as in many competative sports a small difference in skill/deck will eventually tell in the long game. Luxchomp has a decent end game if you are careful with your resources. It has a super engine and is fast. It is widely played too. That is why it wins.
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