shinygyarados: your logic is solid...
...except that if I'm protected by a Priest, the Wolves can't make a kill since not all the Wolves are able to do so. It's been understood as that since the inception of Wolf.
I am not so sure. I would not be suprised if they could kill as long as the head wolf is not stopped
Not to mention, even when the exception of Wolves being able to kill if one is protected, this would bank on me NOT being the Alpha, as the Alpha must be available for the kill to go through. Also, I was attempted to be bitten during Day 1, a role which has been confirmed to be Wolf linked.
This is going to come up many times in my comments, so I will just post it here. You say confirmed. So far as I can tell, Absoltrainer has never said that the bitings were related to the wolves. Maybe in past games it has been a wolf-based role, but that does not mean that it is this time.
Also, as has been confirmed, I have evolved. People don't evolve. It has been confirmed that I was once an Eevee. This has been confirmed numerous times over. If I were one of the Galactic side, I would have to be human, as only humans have been confirmed as alive.
Once again you say confirmed, but in this case you mean: I told you that I was an eevee. Not the same thing. And if I remember correctly the Galactic side had a Pikachu until we killed it, so just becuase you evolved does not mean that you are not a wolf.
The Wolf killing section is an interesting analysis, as it is pretty spot on for putting me as a Wolf. however, there are some major flaws in the logic:
1) The first day kill would look like a coincidence, however I had nothing to do with that vote as I thought them innocent. The Day 2 kill is much more logical, since almost all Sibling pairs in the 'Gym WW games have been Wolf/Townie alliances. that and the Masonic group was played far too hard to be ignored at that time. Lakak's role is yet to be confirmed and, as I have stated, I suspect that it will be revealed at the end of this game day.
You are right. No matter who we killed on the first day, it would probably not have been on purpose. So why would you want to lose a wolf on day one if you could just as easily turn it around to someone else?
2) I always come out guns blazing early, as I believe a LOT of discussion allows more chances for the Wolves to slip up and drop subtle clues, such as alliances in support through posts (see the sibling death on Day 2). This discussion is not fruitless and is highly useful for those who want to delve into the game. You may not be a fan of big posts, but I am.
I will have to take your word on that you talk big early on. I have convinced myself that looking back would probably be a bad choice, since every game is different, and this one more than others it seems.
3) I killed people based on well-driven logic. No others put up suitable logic; however, others are finally coming to the fore. My job in the town is honestly done as the discussions we're having now will continue after I'm gone (if we as a town haven't won by then).
Nonsense. On day one you were cetainly not the only one to make an analysis. I did myself and so did sdrawkcab. I am sure many others did, however I do not specifically go and look back at whose posts were meaningful and whose were not. They might not have been as long as yours, but that does not mean that they were not logic-driven and town-friendly
3.5) If I were a Wolf, there would be no reason to go about the killings in the way it was seen. Killing DFB Night 1 and Ikrit Night 2 is taking out two power players before the game begins. It is more logical to hit people on off nights as a Wolves: One strong, one weak so no one can pick up a logical pattern. In the past, when I've been a Wolf, The Pack has used a random number generator to choose the order of lynchings. I'm not saying this should be done, jsut saying that that was the last method used when I was a Wolf. This day's pattern is definitely a pattern of taking out power-player after power player. Very indicative of a semi-experienced player paired with a newer player IMO.
But you said yourself that wolves would probably go after main, outgoing characters that had played this game before. That doesnt seem very random to me, and besides. If I was a wolf, I would want to kill the outspoken ones. That would keep everyone else from wanting to post if they saw that whoever stood up and posted thier ideas died. You also dont sound like you like the random idea very much. If you were any wolf at all, you would probably have some influence due to your experience. If you thought that the strategies you had seen before were not successful, than you could substitute another one that would be accepted by the wolves, especially if they were not an experienced player
4) Plot points in Platinum were not revealed yet, so I don't believe that those arguments are valid. Shaky as they are, I think we can bank on the Leader and a Grunt still left. Makes the most sense to me.
This one I do not care so much about. Roles change, its not like we havent seen it before. Even if Absoltrainer was not basing the role off of Platinum, it would not be unreasonable to suspect a second in command that could step in whenever the head wolf dies. I said myself that it was shaky. I just wanted the idea out there
5) The Wolves know I'm being protected each night, so they didn't target me. Last night was my first vulnerable night because I got the chance to use my newfound abilities. Hopefully I will not have to do a full role claim, as this would suck as my role is honestly pretty nice right now in anonymity.
No, the wolves do not know that unless you tell them. There was no evidance that the seer would protect you in either night 3 or night 4. Maybe your wolves could still kill without you helping them? This goes back to the second-in-command idea and is especially important becuase I am going to give my most convincing piece of evidance for you being the alpha wolf!! This is the important information that I promised at the top so if you found it good job. During the past night, we followed the alpha wolf. I would like to point of your attention to the third line in the second paragraph "the pure of heart barrier that he knew all too well ***. I will go ahead and just come out and say that I was one of the people that targeted Cardzmaster on night one. This is how I know that he was the one in the pure of heart barrier. I see this branching into three possibilities. 1.) Cardzmaster tricked us all into thinking he was a good guy and was protected behind the seer's barrier while acting as the alpha wolf killing us all off. 2.) The alpha wolf is the cause of the Pure of Heart barrier, and that is how he knew about it. 3.) The alpha wolf attacked the Pure of Heart barrier before and so "knew about it", although this seems like a very loose way to use the term "knew about it. I dont know about you, but If the alpha wolf can create his own barriers to help people, than we might as well quit now becuase that is totally unfair. Which leaves point number one and three. Cardzmaster said that he was protected nights 1 2 3 and that the wolves did not attack him so that rules out number three. How many ropes are there left to cut? All that leaves is interpretation 1. Cardzmaster is the alpha wolf. He needs to die. Or else we will.
That said, thank you for your insight on the topic so far. I honestly am putting you more towards the townie end of things, but please remember with only 7 to lynch you've put me within essentially 4 votes of a lynch. I'd appreciate the vote being dropped, but it is your choice in this day.
