#2394
ATA TTT TTT ACT GGC AGT AGC
SS7-I do see your point(s); perhaps I'm just biased against you because you are the only person my role has worked on and that you have a black cloak (which still confuses me and, despite all of your great posts, still makes me believe you are sith).
Maybe I shouldn't have posted first thing in the morning...lol.
I am still interested in what everyone else has to say, so I'll hold onto my vote until then.
Understandable. If our situations were reversed, it would take some logical convincing to show that I'm on the Town's side. I believe that I've given a very sufficient explanation for my actions. My role, plus precedent, plus my words and actions during the day are all in support of my claims that I've held since the beginning of the game. I am not a Sith, I am Town.
No. That is not what I said. I said that I was voting you because I was unsure of who was the better lynch, and if I kept my vote on gallade it would be impossible to reverse the momentum in time if it is decided that you are the better lynch. However, I still stand by my believe that you are the correct lynch for a few reasons. First, I don't think the town can realistically lose tonight. However, we cannot assume a cushion of two miss-lynches in a row. If we assume you two to be our lynches for today and tomorrow, the worst case scenarios would be:
Today
Lynch SS7: Town
Tonight
Detectives investigate gallade, and determine if he is lying in a WCS we wouldn't find out anything
Tomorrow
If gallade is lying, lynch gallade
If not, decide on another lynch.
Result
We get another shot at lynching scum if gallade isn't scum.
Now here is another scenario:
Today
Lynch gallade: Town
Tonight
Detectives investigate thunderjolt or others, but don't hit conclusive evidence for scum
Tomorrow
Lynch SS7: Town
Result
Town Loss
Therefore the safest option would be to lynch you today, because gallade is the only truly useful target for our night roles.
Also, I in this case do not treat redados as a reason to clear you, because if you are Ezio, investigation immunity is a definate possibility.
Finally, I think lynching you should be a possibility because I am quite confident that if you are scum, I will lose an argument against you nine times out of ten, and cost the town the game. I don't see gallade swaying the town's vote as easily, and believe the town will have true control over the vote tomorrow if we lynch you.
I evacuate sector two(Same as King Piplup)
I understand a bit more now, thank you for clarification.
I don't believe your scenarios are accurate. Lets go with a TRUE WCS set, with Me and gallade as guaranteed lynches day 11 and day 12 (something that you said you were going to do, but didn't. See Bolded above)
D11: Gallade (Town) (10 left)
N11: Wolf kill/Cynthia kill/Sith kill (Sith Victory?) (9-7 left)
D12: SS7 (Town) (8-6 left)
N12: Wolf kill/Sith Victory? (7-5 left)
Town loses/Sith Victory
D11: SS7 (Town) (10 left)
N11: Wolf kill/Cynthia kill/Sith kill (Sith Victory?) (9-7 left)
D12: Gallade (Town) (8-6 left)
N12: Wolf kill/Sith Victory? (7-5 left)
Town loses/Sith Victory
I don't see much difference between these two.
My point is that scenarios break down if there are too many kill roles. Right now we have a total of 3 confirmed kill roles and one highly probable kill role.
A LOT can change in one night, especially with gallade's insistence on us waiting one Night.
Putting myself and gallade in WCS alignments (both Town), along with setting us as the next two lynches almost automatically causes a Town loss. This is assuming that neither one of us dies during the Night after the other one is lynched, and assuming that we don't lynch Dragonclyne725, who is highly probable to be scum.
Variables we don't know:
- We don't know how many "True Sith" there are (maximum of 3, minimum of 1)
- We don't know the final Sith win condition
- We don't know if the Sith will duel it out on the "Final Night"
- We don't know which night is the "Final Night" for the Sith
- We don't know if Napoleon will kill someone during the next Night
- We don't know if I'll be able to kill a liar(scum) during the next night.
Too many variables are at play right now.
I'll try to summarize your reasons for voting for me again. (correct me again if this is incorrect)
You are voting for me because:
- Without voting now, you wouldn't be able to swing momentum.
- The Town can't lose tonight. Therefore scenarios show SS7 is a better vote.
- Players can't investigate me.
- Redados1 might have been lying/deceived.
- I can sway the town in the direction that I want if I'm scum.
I hope that was an adequate distillation of your points.
I'll respond:
- Agreed, time is needed for any change. Though this really isn't a reason for why you are voting for me, just a reason for why you are voting NOW.
- I wouldn't assume this at all. The Sith have an unknown win condition. It could be that after the last Jedi is eliminated they use the next Night as a Battle Royale and kill each other until only one remains. I don't want to give them that possibility. Again, there are too many variables to make that assumption.
- I guess this is true. I had no idea until King Piplup revealed the information he found.
- Possible. But why did he say "TOWN" if he only got "stuff about secrets and gibberish" like King Piplup says he did? Between the two of them, Yoda seems like he would be able to get more information/be more sure of his information than KP (no offense to you KP. Logic says Yoda is better than SF2).
- If you believe that, then you also believe that "I can swing the town in the direction that I want if I'm Town", as well.
Distilling my responses.
You are assuming that the Town can't lose tonight. I don't think that is a healthy assumption to make. Too many variables are in the mix. A true WCS involves the Town losing tonight, regardless of the lynch, whether its gallade, me, you, Cardz, or anyone else.
You think I'm too powerful right now, and feel that its in your best interest to kill me now, rather than keep the town "going where I want them to go."
That last point is invalid. There is always a collective of a
few players "driving" discussion. That is the nature of WW. Some people take a back seat approach, whereas some are more active. As those that are active are eliminated, those who take a back seat are thrust into positions of talking more.
There are ALWAYS players with more "power/charisma/pull/influence" at every stage of the game. Going after them because of this reason is illogical.
Cardzmaster2004 is sometimes in this seat, but this game it has fallen to me now in the late stage due to his absence. I sat back during the early stages of the game simply due to the fact that I was starting Dental School and that was my main priority. I also sat back because as a "Vet" I'm ALWAYS a target for kill roles. I have effectively played the same playstyle as WW XII (Absol's last game) this game.
That playstyle is elucidate below.
Sit back and watch the fireworks of the early game, then identify Scum based on their lies and the role revelations we see during Absol's updates. If you go back to XII, you'll see me saying the same things. Coming in towards the later half of the game with information and with strong accusations against players. Giving discrete analysis of the updates, as well as using that information and logic to determine the alignments of players. In fact, I lead the town against CARDZ HIMSELF and got him lynched JUST IN THE NICK OF TIME based on his lies not matching up to the Night update, just like
gallade. Cardz would have won THAT NIGHT had we not killed him. As you can see from that game and this game, my actions have been internally consistent with not only my precedent, but also within the confines of my role and character.
That is what I'm doing now. I've not changed my playstyle at all (a tell of Scum, see PF5).
In fact, if gallade is Scum and Sith (which I believe is 99% sure at this point), then I see an eerie parallel between XII and XV.
I do applaud you for your step into the spotlight. Keep participating. You have "gained power" with your accusation of me and increase in posting activity. To playfully turn your logic against you: If you were Scum and got me killed, YOU would be in control of the Town tomorrow, able to bend it to your whims. However this is NOT an ample reason to accuse/vote for you. Nor do I have "all the power" right now either. If I went off and accused Cardz right now of being a Wolf, I'm sure that wouldn't go over well. Right now, the primary posters are Myself, You, KP, Thunderjolt, PCPB, and JewelQuest. Gallade, DC725, Cardz, Pikajew, and Napoleon are hanging back.
I expect you to have complete and logical reasoning for your vote for me. Lay out a point-by-point case against me. I've summarized your points for your vote already, but I want everyone to be completely positive on why you want to vote for me, someone who has been logical, and forthcoming.
This is what I've done with gallade. I listed 10 points of contention/contradiction. Evidence and claims made by him and the updates that I believe proves without a shadow of a doubt that gallade is Sith. He has not posted to his defense, and is shown to be a superior lynch in most circumstances (the only circumstance he is not a superior lynch is one where the wolves win Night 11).
I look forward to continuing to dialogue with you.
Shoutouts:
Cardz - You haven't answered what you were doing Night 7.
Napoleon - You still haven't answered who you targeted Night 4.
Dragonclyne725 - You haven't been around at all recently.
gallade - You haven't been around either. The fact that you are acting just like DC725 is another point against you.
Pikajew1213 - Please participate. At least quote some people and mark your approval of their points, if you can't/don't want to elucidate your own.
