This is purely because of how powerful and easy the winning decks are to use to begin with, albeit they need a lot more skill to pilot as you build a winning streak. However, for the first 2-3 rounds of an event, any one of the top tier decks right now are very safe choices. Even though you're still subject to autlosses and donks, it's simply less prevalent when using one of the well known archetypes.
I agree with this statement 100%....but, you're kind of making my point. Yes, anyone can coast the first few rounds with these. But, why are good players doing it? They can coast the first few rounds either way. Funny you bring this up....this is the exact opposite problem I have. If I can survive the first 2-3 rounds, my chances of Top Cutting become exponentially higher each round I win....and the later I make it, the better my chances of winning are.
Players are afraid of using a lot of the cards available to us, simply because there are better options. Why pick Bastiodon to tank and heal with, when I can use Dialgachomp? Why build a spread deck, only to have a Healing Breath undo so many turns of setting it up? Why use Mewperior (A very good deck, and a fun one at that) when Dialga G LvX turns it off?
I also agree with this statement 100%....which, I think proves the point of the OP. I'm not saying take crappy cards and make crappy decks. I mean, there are a lot of decks out there that are stupidly good that never get touched....not so much even out of fear, more laziness. Why would I want to spend ours making a rogue deck when I can net deck Luxchomp and do well? Now, that's not to say that everyone that plays Luxchomp netdecks or they haven't tried rogue decks, but that is to say that the overwhelming majority of them that do play Luxchomp won't stray.
---------- Post added 04/11/2011 at 04:42 PM ----------
Here are some "Power Rankings" of sorts I've done so far. Let me say a few things before I unveil them.
First, its not really a Power Ranking. It is a ratio wins vs plays vs number of times Luxchomp is played. As an example:
Luxchomp was played 14 times with 71 wins in reported T8 at states, with a win percent of 20% in Top 8 (20% of all luxchomps that reached the top 8 won)...so, its "Power Ranking" is 1 as it is the arbitrary "standard." When we look at Gyarados, for example, it has a power ranking of .975. This means that proportionally, Gyardos wins .975 tournaments for every one that Luxchomp wins. So, it Lux won 14 with 71 plays, Gyarados would have won 13.65 if it had 71 plays....its a simple ratio/proportion. Yes, that ALSO means that Lostgar would have won 25.35 if it had 71 plays.
Second, when we start getting in the fringe, we can't really take the stats too seriously. But, I will vouch for a few:
Believe it or not, Arceus had a very good "power rating" in cities as well as states. I'm NOT saying its BDIF, I am saying it has consistently performed well with what little data we have been able to collect.
Some decks we can assume are fairly accurate since we know how good they actually are against the meta. Chenlock/Sablelock are examples. Whe KNOW Sablelock is a very good metadeck, and we see it had good results. While they are not 100% conclusive, we can assume they are fairly accurate. And, for what its worth, Steelix and Sablelock both had very good "power ratings" at cities. And, for what its worth, Machamp had a horrible "Power Ranking" at cities....so at the very least, I can see my stats and my predictions are pretty accurate.
Decks Wins Plays "Power Ranking"
Chenlock 2 3 3.380952381
Lostgar 5 14 1.81122449
Arceus 1 3 1.69047619
Vilegar 5 20 1.267857143
Steelix 1 4 1.267857143
Scizor 1 4 1.267857143
Sablelock 3 15 1.014285714
Luxchomp 14 71 1
Gyarados 5 26 0.975274725
Magnezone 1 9 0.563492063
Dialgachomp 3 31 0.49078341
Machamp 1 11 0.461038961
So, basically, the point is this: every deck that is ABOVE Luxchomp (higher than 1) performed proportionally better than Luxchomp. Every deck UNDER Luxchomp (less than 1) did proportionally worse than Luxchomp. So, according to the stats, Luxchomp really isn't the best deck to play...so WHY ARE PEOPLE PLAYING IT?
Yes, the people are stale.
And, for those interested in my complete stat breakdown of States, check the States thread very soon, its coming....I should have the stats all compiled today but I don't know if I will be able to write the post today as it will have a lot of explanation to it.