1. Games should be decided at the table. Any system that allows for games to be decided ahead of time with no penalty for that decision should not be used. End of story.
2. Again, from experience, there's a minimum of 25% extra time that any TO has to add on to his or her events, not including food breaks. And this extra time increases more people enter the tournament, but 25% is a good enough estimate for our purposes. This time includes such things as data entry, posting pairings, Judge meetings, and overtime. When you make the move from Single Game to BO3, you also GREATLY increase the potential amount of time required for overtime matches because of the rules in place (which are absolutely, completely, and 100% correct for this game, and should not be changed). Remember that, in BO3, there is a scenario that crops up quite often that will last at least 15 minutes, if not longer, where both players are tied in game 2, both have taken 4 or 5 prizes, and the loser of game 1 wins that second game. Not only does this add time due to the Next Prize clause, but it also adds time for the Sudden Death game.
Now, I'm just looking at the events that I've been a part of, namely those in Illinois, Missouri, and Wisconsin, but I think these are a pretty good indicator of the overall health of the game as the numbers at events in this area have generally been in the average-to-above-average area compared to the rest of the US (statistics
here and
here). I'm also going to assume the average increase in attendance from last year to this year will stay fairly constant at 25-30%, with approximately 40% increase in the Masters.
Wisonsin States had 89 players, with 46 Masters. Based on my growth assumption (which was consistent through 3 years of this game and I don't see falling this year either), Wisconsin will get 111 players with 64 Masters, right on the border between 6 and 7 rounds and T8 or T16. Assuming the regulations stay the same, we can pretty well assume that there will be a max T8 for States, which helps in these calculations. 7 rounds of single-game matches is 4:20, not including the average 20 minutes per round for general tournament maintenance and overtime matches, and also not including the obligatory lunch and dinner breaks. Assume that, with all of those added in, it'll take 1 hour per round with 2 hours for Lunch and Dinner. That's a 9 hour tournament, before getting into the top cut. And that's also not including the computer breaks and other craziness when you get 100+ Pokemon players in the same room. Then you get the 3 Top Cut rounds, which almost always go to time and beyond, so assume about 1:15 minimum for each Top Cut round. That puts the tournament at 12:45. If you start the tournament at an insane 9am, you won't finish until, at the earliest, 10pm. Most venues don't open their doors until 9am on a weekend, so assuming an hour or more for registration, you're not starting until 10am at the earliest, which would put tourney end at 11pm. If you go to BO3 one hour, you're adding a minimum of 20 minutes onto each round, and I would put it closer to 25 because of the tiebreaker scenarios and extra data management. That's 7 rounds at half an hour or less per round extra, putting the tournament at an additional 3.5 hours, and ending no earlier than 1am. I can think of precious few venues that are willing to stay open that late in the evening, can accomadate that number of people, AND are reasonably priced for individual PTOs to afford.
Illinois States, which I judged in the Juniors, had 165 players, with 77 in the Masters. Extrapolating, that would place the tournament at 206 players with 107 Masters. Now, I know given the player base and the change in location from Rockford to Chicago the attendance will be higher than that, but I'll use those numbers to illustrate the point. Like above, that would put the end time at around 10pm ideally. Last year, the Juniors didn't finish until 10pm, and the Masters didn't finish until 1am, and this was one of the better run tournaments Regionals level and below that I had ever attended. Now, think about what would have happened if we were playing BO3 Swiss matches. That's an extra 3+ hours, and we wouldn't have finished until 4am, or well into the next day.
Wisconsin Regionals had 181 players, with 89 in the Masters age group. Based on the growth assumption above, I'd estimate that Wisconsin will get about 226 players with 124 Masters. That's right around the edge between 7 and 8 rounds, with an absolute T16. With 7 rounds a a T16, the Masters were done by midnight with a 9am start. If we would have had BO3 in the Swiss, we wouldn't have finished until 3am. This year, we could expect 8 rounds and a T16. Given that the TO has already posted the details about the tournament's 9am start, we're going with that. The tournament probably won't finish until 1am this year, given the extra round and that we pretty much were as efficient as we possibly could be in the organizational aspect of the tournament. If we would do BO3, we wouldn't be done until at least 4am, and probably not until 5am. Idk about you, but I don't particularly feel great Judging for 24 hours straight with virtually no breaks and on short rest from driving the night before and heading into short rest having to drive the next day.
Now, look at US Nationals, the biggest event of the year. Were you there? I was, and it was about as efficiently run of a tournament as I had ever been a part of. 1200 players, with 680 in the Masters. They ran 8 rounds and a T128 (I'm pretty certain). Day 1 didn't finish until after midnight as they ran through to the T32 that evening. They started day 2 at around 10am, and didn't finish the final rounds until 3pm. That's after a 10am start the day before. So that's a 19 hour tournament that would have been extended to around 23 hours over 2 days. Now, that might be reasonable for a 2 day tournament, until you consider that the Jrs and Srs were both also playing 7 or 8 rounds on day 1, and then had to cut to T64 that first day before cutting to T32. That's a HECK of a long day that would only be made longer by adding the BO3 aspect.
Again, BO3 doesn't work for this game because of the particulars of this game and the tiebreaking scenarios that absolutely, completely, and 100% work for this game in particular.