A little research
Thanks so much for the encouragement! Everyone's advice has been really helpful. I've decided to keep a small amount of secrecy about some additional techs I'll be using at Nationals. But I will be playing Redshift and I've got the guts to flip the coins, irrational hope for the win!
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Re: kalisco
About the super scoop up odds. First, what I specifically said to Stef was that super scoop up only increased the chance of charging a Moltres by 12.5%, from 50% to 62.5% and that didn't make it worthwhile for me.
By this I meant playing a Moltres, flipping for super scoop up if it failed and flipping for Moltres' power.
So there are eight possible combinations out of the three flips. Half of those you win with the first flip and don't do any more flips. Out of the other four, only THH lets you charge Moltres, you need to win the SSU flip AND the Moltres flip when you play it down. So that makes 5 winning combinations out of 8 to give 62.5% expected chance.
Here is a flowchart for it. Each junction is a coin flip, heads it goes one way, tails the other. So see there's only two that lead to win? One passes three junctions, so it's 1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2, while the other win stems from just one junction, just a half.
I tested it in BASIC to emulate 10000 Moltres/SSU plays. First to flip for Moltres and if heads record it, on tails flip for SSU and if that's heads flip for Moltres play from hand and if heads record that.
Code:
10 input "Emulate Redshift: " k
20 for a=1 to k
30 if ran() > 0.5 then
40 let w = w + 1
50 else
60 if ran() > 0.5 then
70 if ran() > 0.5 then
80 let w = w + 1
90 endif
100 endif
110 endif
120 next a
130 let r = (w/k)*100
140 print "Success rate: ",r,"%"
That came back as 62.48%.
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Did the same thing for 1 Moltres 2 Super Scoop Up 2.
Flowchart of that here.
I used this BASIC code to calculate those odds, results are on the flowchart:
Code:
10 input "Emulate Redshift: " k
20 for a=1 to k
30 if ran() > 0.5 then
40 let w = w + 1
50 else
60 if ran() > 0.5 then
70 if ran() > 0.5 then
80 let w = w + 1
90 else
100 if ran() > 0.5 then
110 if ran() > 0.5 then
120 let w = w + 1
130 endif
140 endif
150 endif
160 else
170 if ran() > 0.5 then
180 if ran() > 0.5 then
190 let w = w + 1
200 endif
210 endif
220 endif
230 endif
240 next a
250 let r = (w/k)*100
260 print "Success rate: ",r,"%"
So here's a table of Moltres in hand, SSUs in hand and the chance you can get a charged Moltres.
Moltres SSU: 0, 1, 2
1: 50%, 63% 72%
2: 75%, 81%, 86%
3: 83%, 91%, 93%
4: 94% 95%, 96%
Interesting, isn't it? With two super scoop ups available, there is a considerable advantage in chance. Main advantages to playing super scoop ups it would seem:
- Very useful for the many tools/Unown the deck will be using to recycle etc.
- Get energies discarded by: pokémon -> hand -> discard
- Moltres' nasty retreat cost
- Considerable increase in chance of charging a Moltres
- Helps the first turn and second turn rush/aggro chance
- Offers potential solution to the benchpsace dilema. And offers an interesting suprise element, bench full so your opponent doesn't expect a fully charged attack. Suprise! SSU win.
Mega props to everyone as I said at the beginning of the post, but after more reflection, specific credit to Sami and Stef for the SSU suggestions. I'd put SSU aside, but their help has/will take the deck to new heights
That's the power of Spirit of the Game.