Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Is the Pokemon TCG dying?

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Psychoflood

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I’d like everyone to take a moment to honestly consider what I am about to say. My hope is that this is not passively dismissed, as I feel it might be, but instead discussed as the important topic that it is.

We’ve yet to receive any info about Regs, Spring BRs, Nats, or Worlds. We haven’t even received any info about the prizes for States. Really, how many of us have started preparing for States, without any idea at all of what we’re playing for? In the past, POP told us about rating invites a week before Cities, so at least at this point we knew that we had something to play for long term. This complete lack of information has led me to believe, that the Pokemon Organized Play is dying.

The retail focus of this game has never been the organized play aspect of it. The prizes have consistently been reduced each year since 2003-04 when the POP program was introduced. Back then, we used to get a box for winning prereleases, and every worlds invite came with a trip. Each year since then, the prizes have been cut, in one way or another. The retail focus has always been about children having their parents buying cards. It has been this way since 98, when the game was first introduced. Why even continue the OP program, if it isn’t profitable?

In any other game, it would be painfully obvious that the game is dying. I’ve played a number of games that have died, and this is how it happens. You stop hearing new info about upcoming event, and events stop being scheduled. The prizes are cut back, and eventually stop. People try to contact people in management in the game, and are brushed aside, or told that no info can be disclosed at the time. A couple months later, there’s a press release confirming what some have surmised. That’s how games die. It happens, and right now, it feels like its happening to this game.

If players in any other game were put in this position, they would conclude (usually correctly) that the game is dying, and that its time to get out, or find another game. I think this is the conclusion that I am forced to come to for this game.

I heard from someone, who heard from someone (someone who would have this knowledge), that the POP budget had been cut for this year. IMO the OP program will be scaled back considerably, and will cease to exist next year. It seems like they might just cancel Nats this year. It would help them make ends meet for the year. It would explain the lack of Nats info. It would even explain the lack of States prize info (as it usually refers to Nats). I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility, and it would seem like a move toward eliminating the unprofitable and obsolete POP program.

I doubt this is something that has not been considered by those making decisions at TPCi. The release of amazing promos like Claydol and Uxie, seems to be their way of ending the league program with a bang. The movement of Mike Leseik to the video game department could be another effect of the imminent death of the game. There just seems to be too much evidence suggesting that the game is coming to an end.

That said, I’d like to be the first to thank those who have worked so hard for this game over this past 11+ years. I’d also like to wish everyone involved in the Pokémon TCG the best of luck in whatever they do in the future without OP.
 
It’s scary how good some of these points are. I couldn’t have said it better myself.

The only thing we’ve heard from op is something along the lines of “we’ll tell you when we tell you”.

The main thing that struck me was that if players in other games were in the same situation they would think the game was dying. I remember something like this happen to the “Harry Potter” TCG. I remember the rumors, and the eventual official announcement. This feels very similar to that situation.

I obviously hope this isn’t true, and don’t honestly believe it is. But it brings up some good points, and shows what a lot of players might be thinking.
 
This is a good topic with a genuinely good concern. I take the "I heard from someone, who heard from someone"s with a grain of salt, but OP's budget being cut is more than believable, and your arguments are sound.

I've never played another game to the extent I've played Pokemon, so perhaps you could discuss a game that has "died" in this similar fashion?
 
I'm not trying to outright dismiss your argument. But outside of the invite structure, we already have all of the information about Worlds.

If they were going to chop one of the tournament series for budget considerations, I think it's more likely Regionals would get nixed. Doing a run of all of trophies, making the prizes, and (possibly most importantly) shipping all those prizes to the PTOs costs a lot more than I suspect anybody thinks. Regionals is basically just a bigger, badder States - the prizes are functionally the same, just bigger; both contain Nationals stipends, just with different amounts.

Is running Nats a hugely expensive undertaking? Well yes, of course it is. But you need to have SOME sort of feeder system for Worlds invites, even if they haven't told us what it is yet. So if you're looking for a series to be cut, I would think it would be the largest non-invite supplying one, which is Regionals.
 
It seems like nationals is the root of the problem though. I hadn’t considered it before now, but a lack of nationals info would affect states prizes and worlds rating invite specifics. These are all serious things that we are overdue to get info for.

I think what people need to get out of this thread is that the lack of information that we’ve seen has had a negative impact on the playerbase. People see this and jump to the worst conclusions. We can only hope that we will see some info soon. (Maybe the next couple days?)

@cyrus: See the “Harry Potter” TCG thing that I posted while you typing probably.
 
I don't think its dying but it is certainly going in a backwards direction. How could a game with 30 % increase in players die?
 
I remember something like this happen to the “Harry Potter” TCG. I remember the rumors, and the eventual official announcement. This feels very similar to that situation.

I played the Harry Potter TCG! The game was actually doing quite well in sales, Wizards just went and axed the game for no reason. It was bizarre.

I don't see Nats being canceled, unless they're completely done with the game. It's a Worlds feeder, and as Worlds is no longer anywhere near as accessible as it used to be, Nats is a huge event that will see the game die if canceled.

The OP is profitable, and despite all the prize support being cut, the numbers at events and sales have been quite good. Let's face it, they can halve the already tax-deductible prize support (Nats winner $2500, Regs winner $750, etc) and they would keep pulling similar numbers. Judges work for product (ie free), and the player base keeps playing despite loss of support, why on earth would they cancel a cash cow like that?
 
Interesting points. I think I would wait a full season and evaluate the status of the brand and its organized play system.

For all we know, this could just be a fluke around one event, and it got compounded by shifts in programs/departments and a huge website move making this appear much, much worse than it actually is.

If anything, a move back to Hawaii shows similar spending to prior years, so it might not be going DOWN. Also, cuts in prizes for tournaments like worlds/nationals/regionals/PRs have been compensated by many smaller tournaments like battle roads and larger and larger national and world events.

The game's numbers have also continued to increase. Since Nintendo taking over and changing OP, the TCG brand's sales have dramatically increased after the dead period when WotC dropped it. There may not be causation, but with constantly increasing numbers, the #2 TCG, a thriving player base with a great organized system (like it or not- the organized play for Pokemon is better than a lot of other TCGs, especially when you consider everything is completely free), I don't really see anyone eliminating the program or calling it obsolete.

My English teacher used to tell our class that we should find three specific points of evidence to back up a main point. One could be a fluke, two could be a coincidence, but three is hard to argue with. Unannounced Nationals/Invite Structure (can't without Nats)/Website-Product problems seems like a coincidence for me. Seems to be a lot of movement in their offices and their websites, which isn't necessarily bad, and it happens to be when there could be a fluke problem with organizing one event.

I would need to see a third major point before I really started to consider this argument.

However, with all that said, this was a very thought-provoking thread. You make some great points. I think it is a little too soon to call it a dying game, but you are right to show some similarities between recent occurrences and other TCG situations.
 
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Well, I do see a bit of evidence that shows that they may seriously be cutting down. They merged the TCG site in with the main site for one. Whether this is good or bad, I have no idea.

It still bothers me though.
 
Just like most of the people have posted before me, your points are very good, but I'm choosing not to believe in them for my own sake. I really enjoy playing this game, and without the OP, it would be nothing.

One thing you have failed to mention is a counterargument. This is what I would say that would be:

The game is growing in popularity. Tournaments are gaining attendance every year, and the players keep coming back. This means that someone has to supply them with cards, and that would be Pokemon. Since more and more people are playing, they have to buy more cards. This means that POP should have the money to keep the tournaments going.

I don't necessarily think you're wrong, I just hope you are.
 
That said, I’d like to be the first to thank those who have worked so hard for this game over this past 11+ years. I’d also like to wish everyone involved in the Pokémon TCG the best of luck in whatever they do in the future without OP.

A) that's a lot of people to thank, but for my tiny part in it, you're welcome.
and, uh, you're a little late to be the first to thank anyone related to OP
B) typical "sky is falling" post, we've seen many many times before

I am not passively dismissing it, but actively dismissing it. Here are my dismissals:
  • No direct evidence of a falling budget, other than that which can be explained by "more players, same budget".
  • Liesik moving to VG and his position in TCG being rehired is evidence of OP expansion, not scaling back.
  • No one is let go at OP - all the personalities we're used to are still there.
  • Continued efforts to add resources to OP in Europe (e.g. NoPoke is OP head? mgr? in UK; a PKMN geek not a profit/loss LD businessman).
  • They just did a major revamp of the OP site to:
    • bring the TCG into the spotlight with the rest of the franchise.
    • make it easier for players to get Player IDs and rewards.
  • Major changes to the TCG section of the site:
    • an awesome TCG database (says the main Gym image db).
    • other enhanced TCG features
  • Major changes to leagues this fall, all aimed at more participation and the ability to have a larger program, which, I think worked!
So, how 'bout this? Refute my points on the health of OP and show how they're consistent with your main point (OP $ disappearing, wave bye-bye to OP).
 
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Well if it were dying you would think that they would stop releasing new sets. as JPN has 2 more that are coming out very soon. and if US dies they're sets die also. therefore no more sets would come out. plus if OP dies then if they still make packs and boxes then no one would buy them because you cant play them at all.
 
I'm no business major or TCG expert, but I have some counter points of my own...

- They just launched into a new game mechanic - Primes and LEGENDS. From what little of the TCG I do know, Primes should increase the value of the cards and the secondary market (because you can run more of them, thus, you need to buy more, and decks become more expensive). LEGENDS and Primes are all so super-exciting!! It's like they're trying to get more people to play.

- The merger of the sites between the TCG and the VG was a good move, just to save space and make things less complicated - but if you'll notice, the TCG section of the site is VAST compared to what it used to be. The support they appear to be giving it seems very constructive to me.

- The budget is not falling; the game is growing. As Bulbasnore said, more players, same budget: Less prizes. Though I can't help but wonder why POP's budget isn't growing proportionally to accomodate more players...?



Though, I might like to note that attempting to merge the VG and TCG at Leagues was a bit of a scary move. Do they want to just draw VG and TCG players together? Or are they worried that the TCG can't stand alone?
 
B) typical "sky is falling" post, we've seen many many times before
Sounds like a passive dismissal to me.
I am not passively dismissing it, but actively dismissing it.

The rest of your post counters the minor, passing points that were made by the op. What about how we have NO evidence that there will even be a nationals this year? We assume that we will, because of the schedule in the past few years, but nowhere does it say that there will be a nationals this year. Maybe a better question would have been “Will there be a US Nats this year?” And if they’re going to cancel the biggest event of the year, what does that say about the rest of OP?
No direct evidence of a falling budget, other than that which can be explained by "more players, same budget".
The fact that we’ve seen a growth in player population without EVER seeing an increase in OP budget is scary enough for me.
 
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Wow it all seems truer than I want to belive.

Buuutttt, If OPs budget is falling then why did they chose to go hawii this year for worlds?

Why did the site expand?

Why did they just launch a new set block?

But as a counter point to my self, have we recived no info?
But also, this could be the start of a good thing. OP might have something for us that we will like that just needs to be implamented.

I wish they wouldent push people under the rug though.:frown:

Im not so scared of the game dieing as I am to loose all the friends I have met through Pokemon.
 
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i don't see pokemon dying, it's getting bigger and bigger. the economy is the thing that is killing the prizes, everythings a ton more expensive and we all (including PUSA) has a lot less money to be spending. that may mean less payed trips and smaller prizes. but for not announcing states prizes, it's most likely a trip to nats, a box, and 'bout $500...
 
I am not passively dismissing it, but actively dismissing it. Here are my dismissals:
  • an awesome TCG database (says the main Gym image db).


  • Aside from a flashy user interface, this TCG database and its search criteria (and their grouping) look all too familiar to me. :rolleyes:
 
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