Is the Pokemon TCG dying?

[KC HANSON]

ok with a down econ they have to find a way to cut cost like no more winner pins. no more badges
no more pins.
are the going to do cut backs at worlds proubly not, worlds is thier 1 show case. i believe they wont do cut back thier.
i do believe they well do cut backs else where.
i believe they have not found a place for nats. maybe nats will be moved too july instead of june

 

[waynegg]

So, how 'bout this? Refute my points on the health of OP and show how they're consistent with your main point (OP $ disappearing, wave bye-bye to OP).

Looking at it from a Broader, Historical Point of View
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The only things I can think of to support fears from within TPCi as to the looming demise of the game is this

- Games go in popularity cycles with a slow steady increase in numbers for a relatively long period of time followed by a drastic, steep decline.

- Where the numbers are growing. Most of the new players are coming in the Masters division from college age kids who were young when the game was first introduced. These numbers are great for the right now, but historically signal the end is near. Not much growth in the juniors. There are less this year, at least in my area, than there was last.

Take comic books for example. Their last big heyday was when I was in college and the kids who had grown up reading comics all of a sudden had a disposable income. As soon as we all graduated and had bills and other incumberances and responsibilities, comics fell to the wayside and the market collapsed.

With Pokemon, kids who are 17-25 now (wow, I'm getting old. I just referred to a 25 year old as a kid.) started the game in 1999. They soon aged and became "too cool" to play a kids game anymore, succumed to peer pressure, and lost interest. As they aged and matured, they realized how much fun they had playing the game and came back to it, bringing their friends who never played the game along with them. These kids will soon be incumbering themselves with bills and other resposibilities.

I guarantee you TPCi is well aware of similar histories.

I would say in boating terms, they are battening down the hatches, preparing for the storm, preparing to ride it out and make it through to the other side. Hopefully they will somehow remain on top for years to come!

 

[SD PokeMom]

um...i get more new junior players than any other age group. my league is 60-70% juniors...

'mom

 

[KC HANSON]

i play in idaho and this year it exsplode with new players all of them where junior and senoirs.
the numbers where so good at battle roads we got rewarded with an extra city.
now we i dont think pokemon is dying out not yet anyways.
now making the go pokemon website more kid freindly and u can do more stuff on it isnt a bad thing it just away to get kids intersted in pokmon.
hopefully the new leage cards dont make u the parent send it in for kids under 13.

 

[amphyrules]

Best topic i've seen on the gym in ages.

Honestly have had the same fears as the original poster, but thought i was simply being paranoid/refused to look at the situation for what it could potentially be because i'm so attached to it al.

Hope the game doesn't come to a sudden halt this year, as it would mean the end of a lot for me. On the surface, a hobby, in more detail the foundations of my childhood social skills, but most importantly, the end of many, many international friendships!

 

[KC HANSON]

all we can do is keep buying pokmon cards and hope and pray that it does not end.
imo the best game ever, and i love the schoolership chance i get which i need that money very badly .
but so does alot of other ppl.
i hope it doesnt and i dont think it will
i think they will do whatever they can do to keep pokmon touraments going.

 

[nnaann]

um...i get more new junior players than any other age group. my league is 60-70% juniors...

'mom

Just because one league has that, doesn't really make much difference to the bigger picture. Juniors is the division with the smallest numbers in tournaments - the TCG even has on the packaging aimed at those aged 10 and higher.

 

[SteveP]

I witnessed the death of a TCG first-hand. It was the Lord of the Rings TCG. Despite being one of the best TCGs ever designed, it's down-fall was a result of a number of factors (company embezzlement, LOTR film trilogy ended, no prize support, etc.).

Without a doubt, the biggest draw for a TCG's OP is prize support. It's like compensation for jobs. If you make pay-cuts, employees will dissent. TPCi walks a fine-line between balancing it's bottom-line and providing adequate prize support.

Personally, I'm more of a "spread the wealth" kind of guy. Rather than a "winner take all" approach to rewarding only the top echelon, I prefer something more like what VS tried to do -- distribute the prizes down further. (Does that make me a socialist-commie? )

Nevertheless, I don't view Pokemon OP as being in its waning days. There's still plenty of life left. SpongeBob and Pokemon were born about the same time. I expect both to last for many more years.

 

[meganium45]

I look at the tourney season of 2009-2010 to be a "Chrysalis" year, where before 2009, the OP Pokemon was in its larval stage.

After 2010-2011 it should be out of the tranformation, but 2009-2010 seems to be the "middle" era where the stress of change is going to be felt.

TPCi has yet to lead us wrong. Hoping this is no different.

Beautifly? Dustox? Scary creature? Who knows what will emerge. Some of the fun, and stress, is waiting for it to hatch!!!

Vince

 

[Sandslash7]

meganium45 ~ Possibly a Tyranitar?

I don't know whether that would be a good thing or not, because we all know Tyranitar is awesome. :thumb:

 

[Koppee]

Aw man the Pokemon TCG can't die XD I do acknowledge that the OP does have great facts and they do make sense but I'll stay optimistic about the entire situation.

Plus it would kind of suck for the TCG to stop right as I got back into it at the Arceus set lol.

 

[spazcrackers]

Any game that has a growing player base even while prizes are being cut must have something good going for it. If a game in that scenario "dies" it is because of poor management by the higher ups IMO;not the players that pour money into it and travel thousands of miles (at their own expense even) to compete.

Sure there are ton of children that plead with their mother to buy them the Steve Silvestro World's deck at Wal-Mart each and every single day,but who introduces those kids to the game and keeps bringing new people in,THE PLAYERS THAT ALREADY PLAY. So immediate sales would take a small hit by losing the players that put money into it and still be OK (short-term) from all the kids that buy cards and never even play a game. Over time even this stops when the parents say "it's a waste of money,there is no longer a POP system why even buy this?"

For me,Pokemon has become an adventure over the years,I've made friends that have basically become family and I wouldn't trade that for the world. Everyone I know seems to look forward to States for good rivalries,Regionals for catching up with old friends,and Nationals for one of the best times of your life.

Here's a fact about the Pokemon TCG:United States Nationals pulls the biggest numbers in the history of the game;only breaking it's own record each year. Yet we have talk of a dying game?

All other things aside,many players were unhappy with the shift of Nationals from Ohio to Missouri;I still had a great time but the point is if we lose US Nationals altogether this game falls apart (in our country at least),but we all know what a ripple effect is. Just my thoughts. Hope to see my friends and family soon.

-spaz :thumb:

 

[badganondorf]

When I at first saw the title of this topic I didn't even bother checking it out but after that I became curious. After reading that many players think that Psychoflood has some good points I'm more than surprised. Pokemon OP sure has been slow this year, especially with the website. But I think this big integration of the TCG, videogame and cartoon site makes announcing also slower and that's why we haven't heard anything from PCI.

Pokemon TCG has been growing now steadily for 6 years and I don't think that Pokemon TCG will come crashing down like the economy. And since all the "armageddon" feeling is just pure speculation, I don't believe that Pokemon is going to die. In fact when I was reading the first post of this topic, I felt like reading a conspiracy theory of a Pokemon TCG. All these speculations about Mike Liesik's transfer, league Promos etc.

Have we ever been officially told if OPs has been increased or declined? I don't remember - but I'm certain that the budget was last year bigger than in 2004 when I was in my first Worlds. I think there have been made few very good points during this discussion about the economical situation of TCG.

Bulbasnore has had the most prudent arguments in this thread. Most of the believers of the "sky is falling" - situation seem to bring more and more arguments to this discussion without any solid ground. Everything is based on assumptions and speculation.

To conclude, there is no way that Pokemon TCG would be dying. Everything speaks for the upcoming heydays of the Pokemon TCG, not the death.

 

[Tagrineth]

Best topic i've seen on the gym in ages.

Honestly have had the same fears as the original poster, but thought i was simply being paranoid/refused to look at the situation for what it could potentially be because i'm so attached to it al.

Hope the game doesn't come to a sudden halt this year, as it would mean the end of a lot for me. On the surface, a hobby, in more detail the foundations of my childhood social skills most importantly, the end of many, many international friendships!

You sound like you read the OP and didn't read anything after it, considering you still believe anything said in the OP. This is a pretty crap topic, definitely nowhere near a contender for "best"...

 

[ChaosJim]

For people who are saying this is only speculation, that is how the world works. A statement on reasoning below, I feel like it would benefit a lot of people on the internet in general.

There are two types of reasoning, inductive and deductive reasoning. Deductive reasoning is I know these rules, they apply to this situation, I can draw a conclusion. Meaning, All Pikachus are Electric Pokemon. Pooka is a Pikachu. Therefore, Pooka is an electric Pokemon. This seems to be what a lot of people want from the op. Psychoflood isn't using deductive reasoning, he is using inductive reasoning. Inductive reasoning would be, every Pikachu I have ever seen in the Pokemon TCG is a Lightning Type, therefore every Pikachu in the Pokemon TCG must be a Lightning Type. Lo and behold, there is delta species, but for many many years, this logic would've been correct. Correct or not, its still a pretty good place to start.

An inductive reasoning strand used by the OP:

In any other game, it would be painfully obvious that the game is dying. I’ve played a number of games that have died, and this is how it happens. You stop hearing new info about upcoming event, and events stop being scheduled. The prizes are cut back, and eventually stop. People try to contact people in management in the game, and are brushed aside, or told that no info can be disclosed at the time. A couple months later, there’s a press release confirming what some have surmised. That’s how games die. It happens, and right now, it feels like its happening to this game.

So, in the past the OP (and probably others among us) have seen things similar to this happen, then a game dies. Therefore, if this is happening, the OP of the game dies. Pokemon basically already died once, and is probably the only TCG to die and come back successfully. Some people took it as WotC not having the license any further, therefore wanted to devalue the brand they were about to lose, but thats a talk for another day.

 

[baby mario]

I dunno about this.

It looks like a bit of an overreaction. At least I hope so, and I dunno that there is enough legit info to conclude that the game is dying.

The one big thing is the lack of info on US Nats and the Invite Structure, and that is a huge pain in the backside for players. Apart from that though, info is coming out and tournaments are being scheduled . . . Citys went ok and States and Regionals have dates. Prereleases and the new set is going ahead. Some non-US countries might even have Nats sorted out.

The budget thing is just huge guesswork. Pokemon may have the same budget, or even a bigger one. They just might be spreading it thinner, or their costs might have increased by a lot. Unless we get the figures (which we won't) no-one can say anything for a fact about this.

The lack of response to queries is probably to do with the website. It was obviously a massive thing and they probably get hundreds of emails a day about rankings and accounts.

So yeah, I don't think we have enough info to be saying stuff like 'Pokemon is dying'. I don't think it helps much if people say it either. It could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if players abandon a game they think is going to end. The best way to make sure that doesn't happen is to carry on supporting Pokemon.

 

[Psychoflood]

I think somewhere along the line people decided that I'm out to get the Pokemon TCG. This is simply untrue. I love the Pokemon TCG as well as many people involved with it, however I cannot deny that these thoughts have developed and I won't pretend I haven't been brooding over them. I wanted to discuss what I believe to be a real issue with the community that experiences the same things I do. I never declared the Pokemon TCG dead, but rather left it an open question and expressed my opinion on the matter, hoping to hear the well thought-out responses from the TCG players themselves.

For those of you who are dismissing the thread simply because it's not a favorable topic, that is your right. There is no need for you to come here and judge people because they want to have a real debate about an issue that hits home for them.

 

[Biggie]

Your speculation has no basis in the actually reality of the situation. The game is doing better than ever and if we can't talk about something yet, the key word is yet.

I heard from someone, who heard from someone (someone who would have this knowledge), that the POP budget had been cut for this year.

You heard it from a friend who, heard from a friend who, heard it from another we were messing around? Sounds like shaky info at best and some old song lyrics at worst. :lol:
I'm going to guess that person does not have as much knowledge as you or they thought they did.

If players in any other game were put in this position, they would conclude (usually correctly) that the game is dying, and that its time to get out, or find another game. I think this is the conclusion that I am forced to come to for this game.

So if that's the conclusion you have reached shall I take that as a resignation from the Professor program?

That said, I’d like to be the first to thank those who have worked so hard for this game over this past 11+ years.

Ignoring the fact that fruits of all that aforementioned hard work indicates that your conclusion is flawed is sure a funny way to say thank you.

Back to back posts merged. The following information has been added:

I never declared the Pokemon TCG dead...

Please forgive me if the difference between preemptively wishing folks the best of luck once the game is dead and declaring it dead is too tiny for me to bother debating.

 

[Cyrus]

Heh, good to see this topic was unlocked. Biggie's word, although of a special privilege, is not the end of debate.

A couple concerns with Biggie's post:

"So if that's the conclusion you have reached shall I take that as a resignation from the Professor program?"

On the surface, this seems like a simple statement derived from well-formed logic; however, in addition to that, it also looks like a veiled threat. This becomes especially apparent considering that the OP is not even directly stating the he WILL quit - simply that he's thinking about it.

I get the impression that OP is genuinely concerned about the game, and is supporting it in a big way by saying what's been on a LOT of people's minds lately.

Dan, you talk a big game on HeyTrainer about not wanting to be the thought police but your reaction to Psychoflood here seems contrary to that. This thread is a valuable thing for TPCi, because it shows just how little confidence the OP participants have in this season, and - through extension - the brand's products.



As for the key word "yet"?

"Yet" doesn't do for the Poke-parent trying to take off work. "Yet" doesn't do for the college student who wants a fun hobby to add on to the workload." "Yet" doesn't do for anybody in between.

Whoever or what ever's holding things back needs to act quickly and efficiently, or else far fewer people will invest in this game down the road.

 

[farbsman]

As a PTO I have had a problem in the past that may help in this discussion. So here is my story. Its a story of a lovely lady... wait no here it is....

For years I have run my state championships in the same venue. Then I was told with the failing economy the location I have used for 5 years has decided to only take smaller events and use part of the room they used for events as a storage room so they can add some other things to other parts of the venue to bring in more revenue.

This left me without a venue. Now it took me 6 months to find a venue large enough to host my state championships for the budget I had and the size I needed. Now I only plan for at most 200 people for states. So you would think this would be easy, think again.

So lets say TPCI had a venue, and its a nice venue, then all the sudden that venue say files bankruptcy or is under new management that isn't interested in hosting events like the Pokemon TCG when they can hold car shows or other things that bring them more money, or even maybe a giant meteor hit and giant blue aliens destroyed the venue in the year 2012 with helps of Voldemort and the Decepticons. Just saying here. Anyway, now TPCI is left without a venue less then a year till the big event and they have to find a venue that holds over 1,000 people. How hard do you think this might be?

So States, and Regionals have prizes that lead into the National Championships. So announcing prizes that you get a trip or money for if you show up at Nationals wouldn't make much sense if you were not yet sure where it was.

Why would anyone wanna advertise you get a trip or a travel stipend to Nationals in all the advertising only to find out 2 weeks later its in that same city? Would kinda make that organizer look kinda silly don't you think? Think of how silly Vince would have looked advertising his Regionals as a trip to Nationals last year only to find out the venue holding Nationals was a few blocks from his Regionals venue. Not a good idea to do something silly like that.

Now I don't know if this is why prize announcements have been delayed, or why no information on Nationals is out, but I do know that I have run more events already this year then I have in the years past, and I have been running events for the Pokemon company since they took it over for WOTC. So if they are cutting events, I know its not in my area.

Hang tight, I am sure an announcement is soon, and TCPI, if you are actually looking for a venue, Notre Dame Stadium is free, as everyone has seen Notre Dame hasn't used it much over the years, I am sure they would be happy to get some winners in that place for a change I also here there is a rather large stadium in Detroit available for rent, Lions never use it for anything other then NFL exhibition games.