King Piplup
Active Member
I'm barely skimming, so bear with me, but didn't Jewelquest confirm she shocked Dragonclyne?
Posted with Mobile style...
WEREWOLF XV: Pokemon Wars: GAME END: TOWN WINS!!!!! See Post 2547 for Final Update!
- Thread starter Absoltrainer
- Start date
I'm barely skimming, so bear with me, but didn't Jewelquest confirm she shocked Dragonclyne?
Posted with Mobile style...
thunderjolt
New Member
Yes.
AAA AAT TAT CGG CTA TGG AAC
So, does this mean that we should take out scott now and hope we end the game? Or should we take the entire day to discuss like we normally do?
Sandslash7
<a href="http://pokegym.net/forums/showpost.php?p=
#2482
DON'T LYNCH SCOTTISTRU immediately.
I'm writing a big post RIGHT NOW and would like you guys to hold off from a quick trigger.
It'll be up tonight.
DON'T LYNCH SCOTTISTRU immediately.
I'm writing a big post RIGHT NOW and would like you guys to hold off from a quick trigger.
It'll be up tonight.
Absoltrainer
Active Member
Players Remaining: 8
Votes to Lynch: 5
Dragonclyne725: 1 Scottistru
Scottistu: 1 PokeChampofPokeBeach
Votes to Lynch: 5
Dragonclyne725: 1 Scottistru
Scottistu: 1 PokeChampofPokeBeach
Last edited:
Scottistru
New Member
Another man watching dragonclyne, which would be me, explaining my results from the night. This means the everyone is accounted for, so one person from the laboratory is the last sith. I think thunderjolt is most likely because of his disappearance in the middle of the update. I concede that dragonclyne is not the last imperial due to his shocking, and confirmation as lance.
unvote: dragonclyne
vote: thunderjolt
@town: do people want me to name claim?
Sandslash7
<a href="http://pokegym.net/forums/showpost.php?p=
#2485
Initially, I want to apologize for the delay, I had a church obligation tonight that started earlier than I anticipated. Thank you for not dropping the hammer. It would have been very bad if we miss-lynched.
I also want to apologize for this post. It is going to be a beast to read. I'm sorry. I've tried hard to split it into chunks, but the fact is is that each of my points is very important and it would behoove you to read all of it.
Very interesting update. I’m going to analyze it myself, then go on to my thoughts on posts from today.
Laboratory: A woman in a black jacket, with long blonde hair entered Napoleon.
Also in the room, a man leaned against the wall, checking his weapon’s charge, waiting for a chance to use it. Pikajew1213
Another man was also in the room, but he was invisible to all. He wore active camouflage, and was waiting for someone, someone specific to enter the room. King Piplup
Someone did enter the room, but did not provoke a reaction from the camouflaged man. WOLF
Hangar:
Two men were meditating, but on different things. One sat atop some debris, facing the blue transparent shield that separated the hangar from space. SS7
The other sat into the corner, watching something distant. Cardzmaster2004
A red and blue Pokémon was standing around when it suddenly perked up, looked around, its eyes glowed blue, and it disappeared an instant later. thunderjolt
A man in heavy armor, with a large weapon walked around, looking bored. PCPB
Another man was also standing around, seemingly minding his own business Dragonclyne725 when he was approached by a yellow Pokémon. JewelQuest The Pokémon wasted no time with introduction and proceeded to shock the man with a powerful electrical attack.
Another man watched these events unfold, but did not intervene. Scottistru
This update is for a town with 10 people. There are 11 roles noted in this update.
Therefore, there is at least one doubling.
Thoughts on posts:
Scottistru (2468) ~ That is what my role seemed to say. He was telling the truth about something.
King Piplup (2469) ~ What are the specifics you learned? From the update, it is written ambiguously. The Imperial entered the Laboratory in armor and helmet. You might have missed DC725 if he was the imperial.
PCPB (2470) ~ I’m not sure. I like the analysis, but I don’t think that Scott is the only possibility of the Imperial.
Dragonclyne725 (2471) ~ As I expected. I’ll get to you in a bit.
PCPB (2473) ~ As I thought. I thought you were acting strange. I’m glad you have realized this. I did not want to kill you.
Scottistru (2474) ~ I’m not sure. I’m going to have to do more thinking and get back to you. I do believe you are the datapad man. That doesn’t negate you from being an Imperial. I think I still agree about the role swap. That is fact.
I also think that you are the final “another man” in the update. That would make sense.
JewelQuest (2477) ~ Thank you for that information.
Initial thoughts:
1) TAKE IT SLOW, GUYS
We’ve got time, let us use it.
2) Analyze what people have said, not just what happens in the updates.
I don’t know how much I have to emphasize this, but seriously: What people are saying, in addition to how that information plays into the updates logically.
Now, to get down to the nitty-gritty.
There are 8 players left. 1 Wolf. 0-1 Sith.
Why do I say there might be no more Sith? A few reasons.
Regardless, we have no discrete evidence right now for the Sith’s continued existence. Therefore, I’m going to move that we focus on the final wolf.
Therefore, we should turn our attention to the three wolf possibilities: Dragonclyne725, King Piplup, and Scottistru.
Reasons for Dragonclyne725:
Reasons for King Piplup:
Reasons for Scottistru:
Those lists are very lopsided. For good reason.
So far, we’ve had the possibilities flip-flop from DC725/KP to DC725/Scottistru. I’m going to outline why I think that Dragonclyne725 is the final wolf. Now that the Sith are *most likely* out of the picture I can go full out and get this last wolf.
Dragonclyne725: You’ve played pretty well. The early game was phenomenal. 0 suspicion what so ever. But, I think you are the last wolf.
Reason 1:
Night 1 Shenanigans. Clearly this game was not going to be a normal game, given that the first and only Wolf kill during Night 1 was Diaz. A wolf. OR WAS IT?
There is NO logical reason that the wolves would have killed one of their own. NO REASON WHATSOEVER. ESPECIALLY since there was no role-based reason for it. The fact that when Diaz died he flipped a Vanilla Wolf is clearly something that was shenanigans. There have been NO vanilla roles this entire game. So:
If Diaz was a townie, but got role-swapped, then what role would he have had before the swap?
There is one answer to this question. Lance.
2 trainers are shown to begin to duel during the Night 1 update. These 2 trainers are clearly Cynthia and Lance. This makes sense intrinsically. This Lance character, however, disappears completely and is replaced by a Vanilla Wolf. The update is pretty clear that the trainer that faced off with Cynthia is the one that died. It is also clear that there is no text in Diaz’ “role” that supports any of the things that he was doing that night. No mention of Poké Balls. No mention of betraying the Empire.
Therefore. We can know with almost assuredly that Diaz was NOT a wolf. We can also know that he was role-swapped. Finally, we can know that he was most probably Lance. This can be deduced from the Night 1 update almost explicitly (minus Cynthia’s role reveal Night 11).
So. Diaz was Lance. I am near 100% sure of this. Similarly I am near 100% sure that he was NOT a wolf, and almost 100% that he was role swapped.
(1) Does anyone have questions about this deduction? I feel that this is a key point for understanding the identity of the final Wolf
Where does this leave us? If Lance is already claimed, then what happens to Dragonclyne725? What is going on with him?
Reason 2:
DC725’s play has been internally, but not externally, consistent.
DC725 has claimed to be Lance for days now (back to when he replied the letter “L” to jellyfisher’s query to his identity back during day 6-7). I didn’t let on to this, but I had instant suspicions that he was claiming to be Lance right then. Unfortunately when you’ve got 2 anti-town groups you have to be WAY vague and avoid going after one or the other with determined vigor so you don’t draw either of their ire. But now is not that time.
But wait. Diaz was Lance! Yet DC725 is claiming to be Lance! What does this mean? We must look at the evidence and ask: Will the real Lance please stand up!
Reasons for Diaz:
1. Role revealed to be vanilla wolf.
Reasons for DC725:
Which of these players is “telling the truth?”
Based on the evidence we have? BOTH OF THEM.
As we’ve discussed: there is a high probability of a Role-Swap. This isn’t based in anything related to Dragonclyne, but INTRINSICALLY due to the massive shenanigans surrounding Diaz himself ALONE. Just by the pure nature of Diaz’s role-flip, we can deduce the likelihood of a Role-Swap without having to bring DC725 into the picture.
The fact that we have DC725 IN the picture, with his truthiness, greatly supports a Role-Swap even more.
(2) Any more questions so far?
Thus, we’ve deduced that
Reason 3:
Now what? If Diaz (Lance) was role-swapped to DC725, then what did Diaz receive in place of Lance? A WOLF role.
So, that means that DC725 must have role-swapped a WOLF role to Diaz in place of the Lance role. Both of these points are proven based on the updates. Diaz flipped vanilla Wolf and DC725 has been shown through multiple sources to be Lance.
Deduction list:
So, now we’ve worked through about half of my points against DC725. The next half are more deduction based on what DC725 has said, coupled with the role returns we’ve gotten from him.
Reason 4:
First in my second chain of points: The awkwardness with which PF5 and DC725 regarded each other. PF5 was known to be a Wolf since Redados1’s energymite. Therefore he was proven scum. This means everything he says must be regarded with high suspicion. His first role claim was a complete fabrication, as proven by his second role claim and the role that was flipped.
Let us investigate his claims.
He claims to have protected Napoleon Night 8. Is this borne out with evidence in the update? Most definitely. Napoleon was completely missing from the update.
He claims to have protected DC725 Night 9. He also says this proves that DC725 is Lance/town because of his role and other such stuff. Is this borne out with evidence in the update? NO.
His claim that he protected DC725? A complete lie.
PF5 also claimed he was the last wolf. Also a complete lie.
Why would PF5 claim that he was the last wolf when he wasn’t? To protect the final wolf, for obvious reasons. In his failed gambit, he tries to deflect suspicion off of DC725 with his “protection” claim. Why would he lie about protecting a townie? He wouldn’t. A wolf doesn’t try to clear opposing players. Wolves try to obfuscate and shroud in fog the evidence so that there is more diffuse suspicion on more players, rather than intense scrutiny on one or two players.
The ONLY reason for PF5 to claim that he was the last wolf and to try to shield another player is if that player was the other Wolf.
Therefore: PF5 claiming to be the last wolf (a lie), claiming to have protected DC725 (another lie), and claiming that DC725 was town (Probably a lie) lead me to another line of reasoning towards DC725 being the final wolf.
To summarize my argument at this point:
Reason 5:
DC725’s role that he “revealed” is so outlandish I immediately investigated it. I knew that Red/Blue were written completely differently, and now with the revelation of Cynthia’s role it is clear that Lance having such a random selection of powers is highly irregular for a Pokémon Trainer.
The 2 roles that you say Absol gave you are completely awkward and don’t mesh with the rest of what we know about antagonistic Pokémon Trainers (see XII/KP’s analysis of roles). You mention nothing about antagonism in your role, yet Cynthia’s role CLEARLY states that she is antagonistic to you. Cynthia was also clearly antagonistic to Diaz during the Night 1 update.
Another issue is the fact that after Diaz died and dropped “your” Pokémon, you claim that “Absol told you to drop that role.” This makes NO SENSE. WW Mods prepare for almost every instance, and that such likely scenario escaped his eye does not sit well with everything else. You losing that role doesn’t fit with the game, nor does it fit with the roles that Lance would have.
Your second role is still way outside what Pokémon Trainers are given.
Moar summarization
Reason 6:
In 3 of the past 4 nights, we’ve had seemingly perfect attendance by the players involved. As my internal excel based analysis shows, there is 1 unclaimed role in each of those nights. The Imperial. It is highly unlikely that one of us went “OFF RADAR” for each of those nights while another player doubled up on Wolf/non-Wolf duties. DC725 is the only unclaimed player in each of those nights.
Followed by Reason 7:
Night 11 we see the Wolf/Imperial in the Laboratory, then we have a doubled role in the Hangar. It is PROVEN FACT (Dark Gardevoir and others) that the Wolves hide in other rooms after they kill. Just because DC725 was seen in the hangar (AFTER THE LABORATORY INCIDENT) does not mean he couldn’t change or have a cloaking/hologram field in place. (i.e. Faking having Poké Balls as Scottistru says) during his time in the Hangar. (see Darth Pikachu in Night 3 update where he uses holograms to cover over his black suit.)
SUMMARY: GO!
Finally, we reach the culmination of my argument, Reason 8:
NAPOLEON WAS THE WOLF NIGHT 11 KILL
Why is that such a big issue? For a few reasons.
As Scott and I discussed earlier, our argument was the focus of the game yesterday. In one of my last posts, I told Napoleon to kill DC725. I made it explicitly clear in my post that I could not hurt DC725 in any way. I also subtly focused all of the potential danger onto the broad (dainty?) shoulders of Napoleon. If DC725 was a wolf, he would HAVE to kill Napoleon to have a strong chance at surviving the rest of the game and winning. DC725’s ONLY target HAD to be Napoleon. Napoleon was the primary threat Night 11 to DC725.
Now I could ret-con and say I planned for both of these points to benefit me, but that would be a lie. The first was part of my plan, but it was only after I saw Napoleon die that I thought of the second point.
Point 1
Point 2
If Napoleon DID die, then we’d have concrete evidence to the role of a Pokémon Trainer, and be able to see whether Absol had stuck to his Red/Blue archetype.
Summarizing the above points succinctly; I directed Napoleon towards targeting DC725. As a Wolf, DC725 would be obligated to kill Napoleon to have a strong chance of surviving and winning. If DC725 wasn’t the wolf, then the wolf would have let DC725 die and get a 2-for-1 Night, letting Napoleon live.
Napoleon died, so therefore DC725 is extremely likely to be a wolf.
Napoleon died, so his role disproves the role that DC725 claimed “Lance” had.
My Final Argument
So. After 12 pages and 3000+ words, I’ve come to the conclusion that Dragonclyne725 is the final Imperial and Wolf enemy.
Now, how does this play into his sightings as Lance? A few ideas:
Now, for some additional thoughts.
I doubt that Scottistru is the last Wolf regardless, in part due to his Night visibility, his role, and also REDADOS1’s ENERGYMITE. You all seem to have forgotten that Redados1 seered Scottistru as town.
While some of you have evidence of people being who they claim to be or not, Redados1 appears to have had a TRUE SEER. He was right about Me, PF5, AAM, LegendcallerL(Pikajew1213), and Toxictaipan. The possibility that he failed/misread when it came to Scottistru is unlikely.
The possibility of KP being the last wolf is also slim-to-none based on his role, the continuity of the game, and also the things he has claimed.
VOTE: DRAGONCLYNE725
Please do not end the game today/tomorrow. There is still more to discuss.
Namely the issue that there might be another Sith.
I’d like to know what thunderjolt has to say for himself about the past 2 night’s strange actions.
Scottistru ~ I think that would be wise. You could also include a few details about your role. If you want. If you tell the truth you don’t have to worry about anything.
If I had to guess, I'd say you are Talon Karrde.
Thunderjolt ~ Is all you have two 15%-chance roles? What else is there? Why were you able to use BOTH roles at the same time?
Thoughts?
Again I'm very sorry for the length and verbosity of this post. I've tried to condense it down, but I still want it to be readable. Please forgive me, but I feel that this length is necessary to prove my arguments.
TL;DR?
I'm sorry for the length.
Dragonclyne is a Wolf.
I have 8 reasons.
Scott is not a Wolf.
Thunderjolt is sketchy.
There might be another Sith. I'm not sure.
Initially, I want to apologize for the delay, I had a church obligation tonight that started earlier than I anticipated. Thank you for not dropping the hammer. It would have been very bad if we miss-lynched.
I also want to apologize for this post. It is going to be a beast to read. I'm sorry. I've tried hard to split it into chunks, but the fact is is that each of my points is very important and it would behoove you to read all of it.
Very interesting update. I’m going to analyze it myself, then go on to my thoughts on posts from today.
Laboratory: A woman in a black jacket, with long blonde hair entered Napoleon.
Also in the room, a man leaned against the wall, checking his weapon’s charge, waiting for a chance to use it. Pikajew1213
Another man was also in the room, but he was invisible to all. He wore active camouflage, and was waiting for someone, someone specific to enter the room. King Piplup
Someone did enter the room, but did not provoke a reaction from the camouflaged man. WOLF
Hangar:
Two men were meditating, but on different things. One sat atop some debris, facing the blue transparent shield that separated the hangar from space. SS7
The other sat into the corner, watching something distant. Cardzmaster2004
A red and blue Pokémon was standing around when it suddenly perked up, looked around, its eyes glowed blue, and it disappeared an instant later. thunderjolt
A man in heavy armor, with a large weapon walked around, looking bored. PCPB
Another man was also standing around, seemingly minding his own business Dragonclyne725 when he was approached by a yellow Pokémon. JewelQuest The Pokémon wasted no time with introduction and proceeded to shock the man with a powerful electrical attack.
Another man watched these events unfold, but did not intervene. Scottistru
This update is for a town with 10 people. There are 11 roles noted in this update.
Therefore, there is at least one doubling.
Thoughts on posts:
Scottistru (2468) ~ That is what my role seemed to say. He was telling the truth about something.
King Piplup (2469) ~ What are the specifics you learned? From the update, it is written ambiguously. The Imperial entered the Laboratory in armor and helmet. You might have missed DC725 if he was the imperial.
PCPB (2470) ~ I’m not sure. I like the analysis, but I don’t think that Scott is the only possibility of the Imperial.
Dragonclyne725 (2471) ~ As I expected. I’ll get to you in a bit.
PCPB (2473) ~ As I thought. I thought you were acting strange. I’m glad you have realized this. I did not want to kill you.
Scottistru (2474) ~ I’m not sure. I’m going to have to do more thinking and get back to you. I do believe you are the datapad man. That doesn’t negate you from being an Imperial. I think I still agree about the role swap. That is fact.
I also think that you are the final “another man” in the update. That would make sense.
JewelQuest (2477) ~ Thank you for that information.
Initial thoughts:
1) TAKE IT SLOW, GUYS
We’ve got time, let us use it.
2) Analyze what people have said, not just what happens in the updates.
I don’t know how much I have to emphasize this, but seriously: What people are saying, in addition to how that information plays into the updates logically.
Now, to get down to the nitty-gritty.
There are 8 players left. 1 Wolf. 0-1 Sith.
Why do I say there might be no more Sith? A few reasons.
- No Sith acted last night. There were no lightsaber fights, nor were there tattooings. This is also upheld by the fact that the tattoos disappeared after Gallade died.
- The numbers sketchily add up with there was 2 Sith to begin with.
- Jewelquest targeted DC725 (a not-Sith), thereby not blocking available Sith actions that would have been seen during the update.
- The numbers would add up if there was one more. I don’t see how Princess Leia fought against the Jedi while at the same time protecting Lucario from the Sith.
- thunderjolt has been acting strangely the past 2 nights. Though this could be explained if he is an indie too.
Regardless, we have no discrete evidence right now for the Sith’s continued existence. Therefore, I’m going to move that we focus on the final wolf.
Therefore, we should turn our attention to the three wolf possibilities: Dragonclyne725, King Piplup, and Scottistru.
Reasons for Dragonclyne725:
- Claiming to be Lance, when the Night 1 update seems to show Lance killed (Diaz)
- Claiming to have a very weird role that is completely dissimilar to Napoleon’s, as revealed last night.
- Having Pokémon, as claimed by Scottistru, but yet claims to have lost the role that allowed him to gain his Pokémon back.
- Claimed to be the same person in the Night 9 update as King Piplup. The only unclaimed role that night was the Imperial.
- The only unclaimed role Night 8 was the Imperial, every other player was accounted for.
- Claimed to be protected by PF5 (known wolf and proven liar) during a Night where his presence was not missing.
- The wolf killed Napoleon.
Reasons for King Piplup:
- Claimed to be the same person as Dragonclyne725 in Night 9.
- Claimed to be in the Laboratory in Night 11.
Reasons for Scottistru:
- Role is very ambiguous, though has claimed Seer qualities.
- Immediately voted for DC725
Those lists are very lopsided. For good reason.
So far, we’ve had the possibilities flip-flop from DC725/KP to DC725/Scottistru. I’m going to outline why I think that Dragonclyne725 is the final wolf. Now that the Sith are *most likely* out of the picture I can go full out and get this last wolf.
Dragonclyne725: You’ve played pretty well. The early game was phenomenal. 0 suspicion what so ever. But, I think you are the last wolf.
Reason 1:
Night 1 Shenanigans. Clearly this game was not going to be a normal game, given that the first and only Wolf kill during Night 1 was Diaz. A wolf. OR WAS IT?
There is NO logical reason that the wolves would have killed one of their own. NO REASON WHATSOEVER. ESPECIALLY since there was no role-based reason for it. The fact that when Diaz died he flipped a Vanilla Wolf is clearly something that was shenanigans. There have been NO vanilla roles this entire game. So:
- Diaz’ role is inconsistent with the game as a whole.
- Diaz’ role is inconsistent with any reason for the wolves to kill him.
If Diaz was a townie, but got role-swapped, then what role would he have had before the swap?
There is one answer to this question. Lance.
2 trainers are shown to begin to duel during the Night 1 update. These 2 trainers are clearly Cynthia and Lance. This makes sense intrinsically. This Lance character, however, disappears completely and is replaced by a Vanilla Wolf. The update is pretty clear that the trainer that faced off with Cynthia is the one that died. It is also clear that there is no text in Diaz’ “role” that supports any of the things that he was doing that night. No mention of Poké Balls. No mention of betraying the Empire.
Therefore. We can know with almost assuredly that Diaz was NOT a wolf. We can also know that he was role-swapped. Finally, we can know that he was most probably Lance. This can be deduced from the Night 1 update almost explicitly (minus Cynthia’s role reveal Night 11).
So. Diaz was Lance. I am near 100% sure of this. Similarly I am near 100% sure that he was NOT a wolf, and almost 100% that he was role swapped.
(1) Does anyone have questions about this deduction? I feel that this is a key point for understanding the identity of the final Wolf
Where does this leave us? If Lance is already claimed, then what happens to Dragonclyne725? What is going on with him?
Reason 2:
DC725’s play has been internally, but not externally, consistent.
DC725 has claimed to be Lance for days now (back to when he replied the letter “L” to jellyfisher’s query to his identity back during day 6-7). I didn’t let on to this, but I had instant suspicions that he was claiming to be Lance right then. Unfortunately when you’ve got 2 anti-town groups you have to be WAY vague and avoid going after one or the other with determined vigor so you don’t draw either of their ire. But now is not that time.
But wait. Diaz was Lance! Yet DC725 is claiming to be Lance! What does this mean? We must look at the evidence and ask: Will the real Lance please stand up!
Reasons for Diaz:
- Shown to be antagonistic with Cynthia (as Lance would)
- Releases Pokémon (as Lance would)
- Is killed by the Empire
- All of the Pokémon (Altaria, Garchomp, Gyarados, Dragonite, Salamence, Charizard) dropped from him when he dies.
1. Role revealed to be vanilla wolf.
Reasons for DC725:
- Didn’t lie when talking about his role reveal (from my investigation).
- Investigated by Scott as Lance (Red hair and Pokémon)
- Shown to be in the Hangar by JewelQuest.
- Claims a Pokémon Trainer role that is nowhere near Cynthia’s.
- Claimed the same person as King Piplup during Night 9 (meaning he doesn’t know who he is in the update, or is reticent of revealing his character).
Which of these players is “telling the truth?”
Based on the evidence we have? BOTH OF THEM.
As we’ve discussed: there is a high probability of a Role-Swap. This isn’t based in anything related to Dragonclyne, but INTRINSICALLY due to the massive shenanigans surrounding Diaz himself ALONE. Just by the pure nature of Diaz’s role-flip, we can deduce the likelihood of a Role-Swap without having to bring DC725 into the picture.
The fact that we have DC725 IN the picture, with his truthiness, greatly supports a Role-Swap even more.
(2) Any more questions so far?
Thus, we’ve deduced that
- Based on Diaz Night 1, a Role-Swap is highly likely.
- The logical evidence is shown by DC725, making the Role-Swap nigh proven at this point.
Reason 3:
Now what? If Diaz (Lance) was role-swapped to DC725, then what did Diaz receive in place of Lance? A WOLF role.
So, that means that DC725 must have role-swapped a WOLF role to Diaz in place of the Lance role. Both of these points are proven based on the updates. Diaz flipped vanilla Wolf and DC725 has been shown through multiple sources to be Lance.
Deduction list:
- Based on Night 1, a Role-Swap is highly likely.
- The logical evidence is shown by DC725, making the Role-Swap nigh proven at this point.
- DC725 swapped a Wolf role to Diaz in trade for the Lance role.
So, now we’ve worked through about half of my points against DC725. The next half are more deduction based on what DC725 has said, coupled with the role returns we’ve gotten from him.
Reason 4:
First in my second chain of points: The awkwardness with which PF5 and DC725 regarded each other. PF5 was known to be a Wolf since Redados1’s energymite. Therefore he was proven scum. This means everything he says must be regarded with high suspicion. His first role claim was a complete fabrication, as proven by his second role claim and the role that was flipped.
Let us investigate his claims.
He claims to have protected Napoleon Night 8. Is this borne out with evidence in the update? Most definitely. Napoleon was completely missing from the update.
He claims to have protected DC725 Night 9. He also says this proves that DC725 is Lance/town because of his role and other such stuff. Is this borne out with evidence in the update? NO.
- DC725 had no idea he was “protected”
- There were no missing characters in the update as there was when Napoleon was protected.
- (And most condemning of all) PF5 only had ONE protect usage in his role. (see here for his role and the proof.)
His claim that he protected DC725? A complete lie.
PF5 also claimed he was the last wolf. Also a complete lie.
Why would PF5 claim that he was the last wolf when he wasn’t? To protect the final wolf, for obvious reasons. In his failed gambit, he tries to deflect suspicion off of DC725 with his “protection” claim. Why would he lie about protecting a townie? He wouldn’t. A wolf doesn’t try to clear opposing players. Wolves try to obfuscate and shroud in fog the evidence so that there is more diffuse suspicion on more players, rather than intense scrutiny on one or two players.
The ONLY reason for PF5 to claim that he was the last wolf and to try to shield another player is if that player was the other Wolf.
Therefore: PF5 claiming to be the last wolf (a lie), claiming to have protected DC725 (another lie), and claiming that DC725 was town (Probably a lie) lead me to another line of reasoning towards DC725 being the final wolf.
To summarize my argument at this point:
- Diaz’ role shenanigans lead to the obvious conclusion that a Role-Swap occurred [*]The only logical and obvious culprit is DC725. [*]DC725 swapped a Wolf role to Diaz in trade for the Lance role. [*]PF5’s clearly lying shielding of DC725 (in each of the three counts he tried) point suspiciously to DC725.
Reason 5:
DC725’s role that he “revealed” is so outlandish I immediately investigated it. I knew that Red/Blue were written completely differently, and now with the revelation of Cynthia’s role it is clear that Lance having such a random selection of powers is highly irregular for a Pokémon Trainer.
The 2 roles that you say Absol gave you are completely awkward and don’t mesh with the rest of what we know about antagonistic Pokémon Trainers (see XII/KP’s analysis of roles). You mention nothing about antagonism in your role, yet Cynthia’s role CLEARLY states that she is antagonistic to you. Cynthia was also clearly antagonistic to Diaz during the Night 1 update.
Another issue is the fact that after Diaz died and dropped “your” Pokémon, you claim that “Absol told you to drop that role.” This makes NO SENSE. WW Mods prepare for almost every instance, and that such likely scenario escaped his eye does not sit well with everything else. You losing that role doesn’t fit with the game, nor does it fit with the roles that Lance would have.
Your second role is still way outside what Pokémon Trainers are given.
Moar summarization
- Diaz’ role shenanigans lead to the obvious conclusion that a Role-Swap occurred
- The only logical and obvious culprit is DC725.
- DC725 swapped a Wolf role to Diaz in trade for the Lance role.
- PF5’s clearly lying shielding of DC725 (in each of the three counts he tried) point suspiciously to DC725.
- DC725’s role claim does not jive with Napoleon’s revealed role, Red/Blue from WW XII, nor logic in the loss of role #1.
Reason 6:
In 3 of the past 4 nights, we’ve had seemingly perfect attendance by the players involved. As my internal excel based analysis shows, there is 1 unclaimed role in each of those nights. The Imperial. It is highly unlikely that one of us went “OFF RADAR” for each of those nights while another player doubled up on Wolf/non-Wolf duties. DC725 is the only unclaimed player in each of those nights.
Followed by Reason 7:
Night 11 we see the Wolf/Imperial in the Laboratory, then we have a doubled role in the Hangar. It is PROVEN FACT (Dark Gardevoir and others) that the Wolves hide in other rooms after they kill. Just because DC725 was seen in the hangar (AFTER THE LABORATORY INCIDENT) does not mean he couldn’t change or have a cloaking/hologram field in place. (i.e. Faking having Poké Balls as Scottistru says) during his time in the Hangar. (see Darth Pikachu in Night 3 update where he uses holograms to cover over his black suit.)
SUMMARY: GO!
- Diaz’ role shenanigans lead to the obvious conclusion that a Role-Swap occurred
- The only logical and obvious culprit is DC725.
- DC725 swapped a Wolf role to Diaz in trade for the Lance role.
- PF5’s clearly lying shielding of DC725 (in each of the three counts he tried) point suspiciously to DC725.
- DC725’s role claim does not jive with Napoleon’s revealed role, Red/Blue from WW XII, nor logic in the loss of role #1.
- The Imperial and DC725 are the only unclaims on the list of players/roles in Night 8-10, where we had perfect attendance.
- Wolves can hide after the kill, so he is not protected by your sightings in the Hangar.
Finally, we reach the culmination of my argument, Reason 8:
NAPOLEON WAS THE WOLF NIGHT 11 KILL
Why is that such a big issue? For a few reasons.
As Scott and I discussed earlier, our argument was the focus of the game yesterday. In one of my last posts, I told Napoleon to kill DC725. I made it explicitly clear in my post that I could not hurt DC725 in any way. I also subtly focused all of the potential danger onto the broad (dainty?) shoulders of Napoleon. If DC725 was a wolf, he would HAVE to kill Napoleon to have a strong chance at surviving the rest of the game and winning. DC725’s ONLY target HAD to be Napoleon. Napoleon was the primary threat Night 11 to DC725.
Now I could ret-con and say I planned for both of these points to benefit me, but that would be a lie. The first was part of my plan, but it was only after I saw Napoleon die that I thought of the second point.
Point 1
- If DC725 was a Wolf: He would HAVE to kill Napoleon last night. If he didn’t, then the chances of dying at Napoleon’s hand would determine whether he would win or lose the game. No one wants a game to come down to (effectively) a coin flip.
- If DC725 was NOT a Wolf: The Wolf would target Not-Napoleon with his Kill and let Napoleon eliminate another townie, reducing the village count to 7.
Point 2
If Napoleon DID die, then we’d have concrete evidence to the role of a Pokémon Trainer, and be able to see whether Absol had stuck to his Red/Blue archetype.
Summarizing the above points succinctly; I directed Napoleon towards targeting DC725. As a Wolf, DC725 would be obligated to kill Napoleon to have a strong chance of surviving and winning. If DC725 wasn’t the wolf, then the wolf would have let DC725 die and get a 2-for-1 Night, letting Napoleon live.
Napoleon died, so therefore DC725 is extremely likely to be a wolf.
Napoleon died, so his role disproves the role that DC725 claimed “Lance” had.
My Final Argument
- Diaz’ role shenanigans lead to the obvious conclusion that a Role-Swap occurred
- The only logical and obvious culprit is DC725. [*]DC725 swapped a Wolf role to Diaz in trade for the Lance role.
- PF5's attempt to shield DC725 was false and lies on all three counts PF5 posted, as outlined above. Pointing with high suspicion at DC725.
- DC725’s role claim does not jive with Napoleon’s revealed role, Red/Blue from WW XII, nor logic in the loss of role #1.
- The Imperial and DC725 are the only unclaims on the list of players/roles in Night 8-10, where we had perfect attendance.
- Wolves can hide after the kill, so he is not protected by your sightings in the Hangar Night 11.
- Napoleon’s death shows that DC725 almost assuredly killed Napoleon in self-protection as the last wolf.
So. After 12 pages and 3000+ words, I’ve come to the conclusion that Dragonclyne725 is the final Imperial and Wolf enemy.
Now, how does this play into his sightings as Lance? A few ideas:
- The Role Swap allows him to avoid investigation and gives him an alibi as Lance, while still retaining his original Wolf Role.
- He exposed his “Wolf abilities” in his Role when he “revealed,” thus enabling him to escape my lie detector.
- He avoided KP by using armor and a helmet when he killed Napoleon.
Now, for some additional thoughts.
I doubt that Scottistru is the last Wolf regardless, in part due to his Night visibility, his role, and also REDADOS1’s ENERGYMITE. You all seem to have forgotten that Redados1 seered Scottistru as town.
While some of you have evidence of people being who they claim to be or not, Redados1 appears to have had a TRUE SEER. He was right about Me, PF5, AAM, LegendcallerL(Pikajew1213), and Toxictaipan. The possibility that he failed/misread when it came to Scottistru is unlikely.
The possibility of KP being the last wolf is also slim-to-none based on his role, the continuity of the game, and also the things he has claimed.
VOTE: DRAGONCLYNE725
Please do not end the game today/tomorrow. There is still more to discuss.
Namely the issue that there might be another Sith.
I’d like to know what thunderjolt has to say for himself about the past 2 night’s strange actions.
Scottistru ~ I think that would be wise. You could also include a few details about your role. If you want. If you tell the truth you don’t have to worry about anything.
If I had to guess, I'd say you are Talon Karrde.
Thunderjolt ~ Is all you have two 15%-chance roles? What else is there? Why were you able to use BOTH roles at the same time?
Thoughts?
Again I'm very sorry for the length and verbosity of this post. I've tried to condense it down, but I still want it to be readable. Please forgive me, but I feel that this length is necessary to prove my arguments.
TL;DR?
I'm sorry for the length.
Dragonclyne is a Wolf.
I have 8 reasons.
Scott is not a Wolf.
Thunderjolt is sketchy.
There might be another Sith. I'm not sure.
Absoltrainer
Active Member
A delay AND a massive post?
I'm rubbing off on you SandSlash.
Players Remaining: 8
Votes to Lynch: 5
Dragonclyne725: 1 Sandslash7
Scottistu: 1 PokeChampofPokeBeach
thunderjolt: 1 Scottistru
I'm rubbing off on you SandSlash.
Players Remaining: 8
Votes to Lynch: 5
Dragonclyne725: 1 Sandslash7
Scottistu: 1 PokeChampofPokeBeach
thunderjolt: 1 Scottistru
DragonClyne725
New Member
Comments written with red and bold:
First off, I'd like to congratulate SS7 for making the most irritating post to try and quote/respond too.
Anyway, here's a summary of what I said:
-KP targeted me, and did not attack the Imperial (The armor and helmet fell off in the battle KP was watching, so that is no reason why this fact is inaccurate)
-I was in the Hanger for the Night
-JQ's role shows this correct
I'm not too sure about Scott. We still do not know what Redados1's role did, as it was 'x'd out. It could be possible that there was a percentage of inaccuracy in his role. I do not think that his reveal proves Scott innocent.
First off, I'd like to congratulate SS7 for making the most irritating post to try and quote/respond too.
Anyway, here's a summary of what I said:
-KP targeted me, and did not attack the Imperial (The armor and helmet fell off in the battle KP was watching, so that is no reason why this fact is inaccurate)
-I was in the Hanger for the Night
-JQ's role shows this correct
I'm not too sure about Scott. We still do not know what Redados1's role did, as it was 'x'd out. It could be possible that there was a percentage of inaccuracy in his role. I do not think that his reveal proves Scott innocent.
King Piplup
Active Member
There are some misconceptions floating about regarding my role, and the fact that this post existed-
Can't find it, but it was Napoleon saying they couldn't use Garchomp until Night 13??? Would make sense based on Red's role, since he had to use all Pokemon before repeating them. Since Napoleon used Garchomp on Night 8, Night 13 would be a full rotation of the Pokemon.
Thoughts? I have a bigger post coming, but in the mean time a Who/What Won thread needs updating...
Can't find it, but it was Napoleon saying they couldn't use Garchomp until Night 13??? Would make sense based on Red's role, since he had to use all Pokemon before repeating them. Since Napoleon used Garchomp on Night 8, Night 13 would be a full rotation of the Pokemon.
Thoughts? I have a bigger post coming, but in the mean time a Who/What Won thread needs updating...
PokeChampofPokeBeach
New Member
That was an excellent post, Sandslash7. I believe you have given us the key here. My theory was based on facts based off of the update, you however have dug much deeper here and I think your theory is much more likely to be correct, if not entirely proven. My main point against Scottistru is that Dragonclyne was in the hangar. With what you have just revealed about the wolves hiding in a different room post-kill, was a detail that I must admit had totally escaped me. Therefore, I can say that it is probably a proven fact that Scott was in the Hangar.
A reflection on the update gives us:
Notably, King Piplup is the only one missing from the hangar update.
For now,
Unvote: Scottistru
A reflection on the update gives us:
Notably, King Piplup is the only one missing from the hangar update.
For now,
Unvote: Scottistru
King Piplup
Active Member
Notably, I was in the Labratory trying to stalk DC725, explaining why I wasn't in the hanger. I am literally the only person that the person waiting for his lame target to not show could've been.
Misconceptions I refer to-
My role does not have a 100% chance of doing ANYTHING. The best chance of doing something is 85% and that is beating somebody up. I attempted to ask AT that in the event the wolf made the kill, then fled the room if my role would still trigger. He couldn't answer.
@SS7's last post. Great post, I don't understand why I STILL am listed as possible wolf, but that's not relevant. (Though it makes me want to shun the playstyle I've chosen for this game). What's relevant is that you've layed out a ton of reasons on why Dragonclyne725 is the last wolf, most-all of which completely make sense.
Bold comments.
JewelQuest
New Member
First off, I find myself once again being referred to as he/him/his. I AM A GIRL!!!!
Great post, SS7. I was willing to let DragonClyne725 off the hook, but you changed my mind, but I won't vote because I don't want the day to end early. Also, I think that yet again he is one of the players that is trying too hard to stay alive. If he really was town, I don't think he'd be as worried.
And in case people are worried, my role did not do ANYTHING last night, except for giving him a small shock.
I am starting to think I might actually live to see the end of this.
Great post, SS7. I was willing to let DragonClyne725 off the hook, but you changed my mind, but I won't vote because I don't want the day to end early. Also, I think that yet again he is one of the players that is trying too hard to stay alive. If he really was town, I don't think he'd be as worried.
And in case people are worried, my role did not do ANYTHING last night, except for giving him a small shock.
I am starting to think I might actually live to see the end of this.
thunderjolt
New Member
ACT GGT CAT ATA TAT GCG CCC
Yes, there is more to it, but I honestly believe that I shouldn't reveal it for the good of the town. As for being able to use them both, yes I can. I suppose it is not like in mystery dungeon (video game) where deoxys can only take one form per floor/day.
As for my posting style the last few posts, all I can say is that I'm just really getting into the whole trying to find the last bad guys game, as well as I've only had time to check in and out of the 'gym. I haven't really had time to make out really well thought out posts like SS7 has (and I commend you for that, awesome).
Scottistru
New Member
Claim: Looker
My role is basically the same as the old looker, but with some rewording for the rooms mechanic.
Holy crap Sandslash, that was insanly awesome, I agree 100%
unvote: thunderjolt
vote: dragonclyne.
My role is basically the same as the old looker, but with some rewording for the rooms mechanic.
Holy crap Sandslash, that was insanly awesome, I agree 100%
unvote: thunderjolt
vote: dragonclyne.
Sandslash7
<a href="http://pokegym.net/forums/showpost.php?p=
#2494
In your responses to my initial reasons:
Where does it say anything about that in his Role? It says nothing about having your Pokémon.
Possible. Hence why I want some information from him.
What about Night 9 and 10? Those nights have the same issue.
True. It was claimed for you by PF5. Which is sketchy.
False. I lay out 2 scenarios. 1 in which you are a Wolf, the other in which you were not a wolf.
The fact that Diaz flipped a Vanilla Wolf shows 2 things: This was not an intentional Wolf/Wolf kill. This was a role-swap effect.
As I stated somewhere before, my guess is that Diaz received my Pokemon and wanted to become Alpha by taking out the Emperor.
Where does it say this in his role? He flipped a complete Vanilla Wolf.
Would have gotten beaten up/killed by KP had I been in the Laboratory at all last Night
Not completely true.
PF5 was most likely trying to buy time for his partner by turning suspicion onto me.
Agreed, except I think he was trying to turn it away from you. He goes out of his way to say "DC725 (you) is (are) Lance, based on his "protection and observation powers."
PF5 was claiming to ‘protect’ people who had already claimed their roles, and then would ‘confirm’ their roles with his fake role. He most likely claimed to protect Napoleon because he already knew Napoleon’s role
The evidence is CLEARLY there that Napoleon was protected. PF5 DID have a protection role “Door Close.” Yet he also claimed to protect you, and there was no evidence for it. Therefore he lied about protecting you.
DC725’s role that he “revealed” is so outlandish I immediately investigated it. I knew that Red/Blue were written completely differently, and now with the revelation of Cynthia’s role it is clear that Lance having such a random selection of powers is highly irregular for a Pokémon Trainer.
Since Red and Blue were completely different, why is it strange that my roles are completely different from Cynthia’s?
What are you talking about? Red and Blue were carbon copies of each other, minus the different name and Pokémon. Their roles were IDENTICAL. Therefore it is VERY STRANGE that your role is completely different than Cynthia’s
The 2 roles that you say Absol gave you are completely awkward and don’t mesh with the rest of what we know about antagonistic Pokémon Trainers (see XII/KP’s analysis of roles). You mention nothing about antagonism in your role, yet Cynthia’s role CLEARLY states that she is antagonistic to you. Cynthia was also clearly antagonistic to Diaz during the Night 1 update.
I was not told of Cynthia’s existence, my guess is because I was just on this ship to recover my Pokemon and not spark a rivalry. I’m not sure why Absol didn’t tell me about my rival
Then why was Cynthia told about HER rival? Why were Diaz and Napoleon facing off specifically during Night 1?
Another issue is the fact that after Diaz died and dropped “your” Pokémon, you claim that “Absol told you to drop that role.” This makes NO SENSE. WW Mods prepare for almost every instance, and that such likely scenario escaped his eye does not sit well with everything else. You losing that role doesn’t fit with the game, nor does it fit with the roles that Lance would have.
It is definitely different from the game. It kind of makes sense because Lance in the anime is a sort of detective, and my first role gave me the ability to search for my Pokemon.
I don’t know why you are bringing up the VG or the anime. I’m talking about WW right now. It is illogical for Lance to lose his primary focus after 1 Night, especially when there was no language written in your role about it. That you say “Absol killed that part of my role” is illogical and false. If the possibility for you to lose a role was there, it would have been mentioned in your role from the outset. Absol doesn’t willy-nilly remove important parts of people’s roles, especially Night 1.
Your second role is still way outside what Pokémon Trainers are given.
An evasion role would help me survive long enough to find my Pokemon, which is probably why AT gave me the role
True, but it is way outside what Pokémon Trainers have been given to date. And this doesn't mesh with a Night 1 loss of your "Pokemon Retrieval Role"
The only logical and obvious culprit is DC725.
Your role says my reveal is legit, KP didn’t beat me up, JQ confirms that I was in the Hanger, and yet I am the only obvious culprit?
I don’t know what part of your reveal is legit. I don’t know if you just took the Lance archetype and welded it on to a Wolf role, allowing you to bypass my detection. You are the only logical culprit if Diaz was Role-Swapped. Diaz, if Role-Swapped, was Lance originally. Therefore you are the only option.
True. But there are explanations for both of those. The Imperial didn’t lose his helmet. And it is also PROVEN that Wolves travel to different rooms after the kill. Thus JQ seeing you in the hangar does NOT clear you.
However, you've cleverly deflected my point. That point was deduced using Night 1. NIGHT ONE we can say shenanigans were present. Diaz was Lance, based on Night 1 info. If you claim to be Lance (which you have/are), then you are the logical, obvious, and only culprit for the Role-Swap evident in Night 1. You have yet to show that Diaz' Shenanigans have a logical reasoning other than a Role-Swap.
If I WERE the last wolf, I would have killed YOU because you are the main person attacking me. Yet, Napoleon died during the Night.
I don’t agree. Napoleon was the biggest threat to you last night. I could do NOTHING to you. I was (am?) powerless against you. Napoleon had the opportunity and the incentive to remove you from the game. A threat at Night takes precedence over a threat during the Day. It’s always possible to talk your way out of lynch. That is not possible with a Night role. Besides, I thought you were a wolf, yes. But was I hounding after you yesterday? No. I railed against gallade for being a Sith, after having focused on the Sith for days. You were lower on my watch list until today. To say that you as a Wolf would have killed me last night smacks of sheer anger, irritation, and vengeance. Threatening me with violence does not help your point.
I believe that Napoleon stated somewhere that she was not able to use her Garchomp again until Night 13, so killing a person who posed no threat would be pointless.
Napoleon stated that he could use Garchomp once more until Night 13. Not “Not able to use Garchomp again until Night 13.” Here is proof
He exposed his “Wolf abilities” in his Role when he “revealed,” thus enabling him to escape my lie detector.
I passed your lie detector because I AM TELLING THE TRUTH!
Clearly. I just don’t know what you were telling the truth about.
He avoided KP by using armor and a helmet when he killed Napoleon.
If I were the last wolf, KP’s role would have activated. If you recall, the imperial LOST his armor and helmet in the fight with Cynthia, yet KP still didn’t attack.
False. There is the possibility that KP’s role failed. Yes the Imperial lost his “over-armor,” but NOT his helmet. So that might have helped the Imperial avoid KP’s role. I’m very tempted to call this a blatant lie, but I think this might have just been an oversight on your part.
Your summary:
KP targeted you, but did not attack the Imperial, whose armor and helmet fell off.
You were in the Hangar all last night, JQ proves this.
My summary:
KP’s role failed. That much is clear. It could have failed due to your absence or due to the fail percentage. (possibly heightened by the fact that the HELMET DID NOT COME OFF.)
You were in the Hangar for PART OF THE NIGHT, as evidenced by JQ and Scott. We KNOW that the wolves can go to other rooms after the Kill (SEE DARK GARDEVOIR and NIGHT 4 Being in the Hangar proves NOTHING.
You are correct; we don’t know what Redados1’s role did. But he has been right on 5/6 roles. I don’t think we should base our entire plan of lynching someone on the possible off chance that Redados1 was wrong, especially when there is no OTHER evidence for that player to be Wolf.
Finally, I still do apologize for that post. It was laboriously long. But as I’ve said, each of those points was important.
PCPB (2490) ~ Agreed. Given Scott’s information and his placement, it is highly likely that he was in the Hangar. Does this clear him of being the Wolf? No. But he does have a character that is visibly seen on each of the Perfect Attendance Nights. That is a point in his favor.
Jellyfisher pointed it out to me first. I was claiming that my placement predated that of a wolf Kill, thereby proving me Town, but he showed that wolves (and Sith) DO travel. So, with JUST the Night 11 update, each of those in the Hangar are possible wolves. We can narrow this WAY down based on what people have said, in addition to roles and other information.
PCPB is out, since you are a Fett.
KP is out, since he was in the Laboratory, clearly defined as Not-wolf.
SS7 is out. Seered as Town and RRV.
Cardz is out because Seered as Town and guy who doesn’t move.
That leaves Dragonclyne, Thunderjolt, Scottstru, and Jewelquest.
Dragonclyne is likely to be a wolf based on Diaz shenanigans.
Thunderjolt has been acting strangely.
Scottistru has been Seered as Town and was visible in Perfect Attendance Nights as Not-Wolf.
JewelQuest was attacked BY the wolves Night 9. There is NO WAY JewelQuest could be one.
So: We are left with Dragonclyne725 and thunderjolt.
Of these two, which is the most likely to be a wolf?
KP (2491) ~ Yep. Agreed. I like the active camo part. Pretty cool.
So there is a 15% chance that your role just fails. So it is possible that you could have missed DC725 in the Laboratory. (the fact that the Imperial’s helmet stayed on the entire time might have assisted that)
I only listed you since you were in contradiction to DC725 on role placement that one Night. Plus you claimed to be in the Laboratory (where the wolf was). As you see I’ve outlined the remaining 8 players and who the possible enemies are. I feel that the only logical possibilities are DC725 and thunderjolt.
I do want to point out 2 points in your comments to DC725.
Shoutouts:
Cardz: What are your thoughts? What do you think about the Night 1 Shenanigans and Diaz Role-Swap?
New info:
Thunderjolt. Thanks for the information. It is interesting that you can use both roles at once. Especially since you said: "Normal Form" and "Speed Form" when you were describing it initially. It is interesting that you can switch between them that quickly.
However, I don't know how revealing a few choice morsels will hurt the town. Unless you've got a Kill hidden I don't think you are in any danger.
Scottistru:
That fits with what we have seen so far. I can accept you using a datapad (which kind of inkled me to a Star Wars flavor instead) within that role. It certainly fits with Absol's mod style and with the game in general.
Jewelquest:
So you were told that your role failed? Or are you just inferring that from the update? This will definitely help seal the margins.
Finally:
I'm glad you guys like my post, and that it makes sense. Make sure that you are double-checking what I say, rather than blindly following the first person to make a big post. If you see a hole that doesn't look like it's been addressed, poke it hard. I want to be completely sure that we've got the last Wolf trapped.
TL;DR?
DC725: Good work. You’ve got a ways to go, however. You've gotta deal with those arguments firmly.
Scum possibilities are way reduced.
Don't end the day yet.
Long post was long, my bad.
Long post is shorter than other long post, but still long.
In your responses to my initial reasons:
Where does it say anything about that in his Role? It says nothing about having your Pokémon.
Possible. Hence why I want some information from him.
What about Night 9 and 10? Those nights have the same issue.
True. It was claimed for you by PF5. Which is sketchy.
False. I lay out 2 scenarios. 1 in which you are a Wolf, the other in which you were not a wolf.
The fact that Diaz flipped a Vanilla Wolf shows 2 things: This was not an intentional Wolf/Wolf kill. This was a role-swap effect.
As I stated somewhere before, my guess is that Diaz received my Pokemon and wanted to become Alpha by taking out the Emperor.
Where does it say this in his role? He flipped a complete Vanilla Wolf.
Would have gotten beaten up/killed by KP had I been in the Laboratory at all last Night
Not completely true.
PF5 was most likely trying to buy time for his partner by turning suspicion onto me.
Agreed, except I think he was trying to turn it away from you. He goes out of his way to say "DC725 (you) is (are) Lance, based on his "protection and observation powers."
PF5 was claiming to ‘protect’ people who had already claimed their roles, and then would ‘confirm’ their roles with his fake role. He most likely claimed to protect Napoleon because he already knew Napoleon’s role
The evidence is CLEARLY there that Napoleon was protected. PF5 DID have a protection role “Door Close.” Yet he also claimed to protect you, and there was no evidence for it. Therefore he lied about protecting you.
DC725’s role that he “revealed” is so outlandish I immediately investigated it. I knew that Red/Blue were written completely differently, and now with the revelation of Cynthia’s role it is clear that Lance having such a random selection of powers is highly irregular for a Pokémon Trainer.
Since Red and Blue were completely different, why is it strange that my roles are completely different from Cynthia’s?
What are you talking about? Red and Blue were carbon copies of each other, minus the different name and Pokémon. Their roles were IDENTICAL. Therefore it is VERY STRANGE that your role is completely different than Cynthia’s
The 2 roles that you say Absol gave you are completely awkward and don’t mesh with the rest of what we know about antagonistic Pokémon Trainers (see XII/KP’s analysis of roles). You mention nothing about antagonism in your role, yet Cynthia’s role CLEARLY states that she is antagonistic to you. Cynthia was also clearly antagonistic to Diaz during the Night 1 update.
I was not told of Cynthia’s existence, my guess is because I was just on this ship to recover my Pokemon and not spark a rivalry. I’m not sure why Absol didn’t tell me about my rival
Then why was Cynthia told about HER rival? Why were Diaz and Napoleon facing off specifically during Night 1?
Another issue is the fact that after Diaz died and dropped “your” Pokémon, you claim that “Absol told you to drop that role.” This makes NO SENSE. WW Mods prepare for almost every instance, and that such likely scenario escaped his eye does not sit well with everything else. You losing that role doesn’t fit with the game, nor does it fit with the roles that Lance would have.
It is definitely different from the game. It kind of makes sense because Lance in the anime is a sort of detective, and my first role gave me the ability to search for my Pokemon.
I don’t know why you are bringing up the VG or the anime. I’m talking about WW right now. It is illogical for Lance to lose his primary focus after 1 Night, especially when there was no language written in your role about it. That you say “Absol killed that part of my role” is illogical and false. If the possibility for you to lose a role was there, it would have been mentioned in your role from the outset. Absol doesn’t willy-nilly remove important parts of people’s roles, especially Night 1.
Your second role is still way outside what Pokémon Trainers are given.
An evasion role would help me survive long enough to find my Pokemon, which is probably why AT gave me the role
True, but it is way outside what Pokémon Trainers have been given to date. And this doesn't mesh with a Night 1 loss of your "Pokemon Retrieval Role"
The only logical and obvious culprit is DC725.
Your role says my reveal is legit, KP didn’t beat me up, JQ confirms that I was in the Hanger, and yet I am the only obvious culprit?
I don’t know what part of your reveal is legit. I don’t know if you just took the Lance archetype and welded it on to a Wolf role, allowing you to bypass my detection. You are the only logical culprit if Diaz was Role-Swapped. Diaz, if Role-Swapped, was Lance originally. Therefore you are the only option.
True. But there are explanations for both of those. The Imperial didn’t lose his helmet. And it is also PROVEN that Wolves travel to different rooms after the kill. Thus JQ seeing you in the hangar does NOT clear you.
However, you've cleverly deflected my point. That point was deduced using Night 1. NIGHT ONE we can say shenanigans were present. Diaz was Lance, based on Night 1 info. If you claim to be Lance (which you have/are), then you are the logical, obvious, and only culprit for the Role-Swap evident in Night 1. You have yet to show that Diaz' Shenanigans have a logical reasoning other than a Role-Swap.
If I WERE the last wolf, I would have killed YOU because you are the main person attacking me. Yet, Napoleon died during the Night.
I don’t agree. Napoleon was the biggest threat to you last night. I could do NOTHING to you. I was (am?) powerless against you. Napoleon had the opportunity and the incentive to remove you from the game. A threat at Night takes precedence over a threat during the Day. It’s always possible to talk your way out of lynch. That is not possible with a Night role. Besides, I thought you were a wolf, yes. But was I hounding after you yesterday? No. I railed against gallade for being a Sith, after having focused on the Sith for days. You were lower on my watch list until today. To say that you as a Wolf would have killed me last night smacks of sheer anger, irritation, and vengeance. Threatening me with violence does not help your point.
I believe that Napoleon stated somewhere that she was not able to use her Garchomp again until Night 13, so killing a person who posed no threat would be pointless.
Napoleon stated that he could use Garchomp once more until Night 13. Not “Not able to use Garchomp again until Night 13.” Here is proof
He exposed his “Wolf abilities” in his Role when he “revealed,” thus enabling him to escape my lie detector.
I passed your lie detector because I AM TELLING THE TRUTH!
Clearly. I just don’t know what you were telling the truth about.
He avoided KP by using armor and a helmet when he killed Napoleon.
If I were the last wolf, KP’s role would have activated. If you recall, the imperial LOST his armor and helmet in the fight with Cynthia, yet KP still didn’t attack.
False. There is the possibility that KP’s role failed. Yes the Imperial lost his “over-armor,” but NOT his helmet. So that might have helped the Imperial avoid KP’s role. I’m very tempted to call this a blatant lie, but I think this might have just been an oversight on your part.
Your summary:
KP targeted you, but did not attack the Imperial, whose armor and helmet fell off.
You were in the Hangar all last night, JQ proves this.
My summary:
KP’s role failed. That much is clear. It could have failed due to your absence or due to the fail percentage. (possibly heightened by the fact that the HELMET DID NOT COME OFF.)
You were in the Hangar for PART OF THE NIGHT, as evidenced by JQ and Scott. We KNOW that the wolves can go to other rooms after the Kill (SEE DARK GARDEVOIR and NIGHT 4 Being in the Hangar proves NOTHING.
You are correct; we don’t know what Redados1’s role did. But he has been right on 5/6 roles. I don’t think we should base our entire plan of lynching someone on the possible off chance that Redados1 was wrong, especially when there is no OTHER evidence for that player to be Wolf.
Finally, I still do apologize for that post. It was laboriously long. But as I’ve said, each of those points was important.
PCPB (2490) ~ Agreed. Given Scott’s information and his placement, it is highly likely that he was in the Hangar. Does this clear him of being the Wolf? No. But he does have a character that is visibly seen on each of the Perfect Attendance Nights. That is a point in his favor.
Jellyfisher pointed it out to me first. I was claiming that my placement predated that of a wolf Kill, thereby proving me Town, but he showed that wolves (and Sith) DO travel. So, with JUST the Night 11 update, each of those in the Hangar are possible wolves. We can narrow this WAY down based on what people have said, in addition to roles and other information.
PCPB is out, since you are a Fett.
KP is out, since he was in the Laboratory, clearly defined as Not-wolf.
SS7 is out. Seered as Town and RRV.
Cardz is out because Seered as Town and guy who doesn’t move.
That leaves Dragonclyne, Thunderjolt, Scottstru, and Jewelquest.
Dragonclyne is likely to be a wolf based on Diaz shenanigans.
Thunderjolt has been acting strangely.
Scottistru has been Seered as Town and was visible in Perfect Attendance Nights as Not-Wolf.
JewelQuest was attacked BY the wolves Night 9. There is NO WAY JewelQuest could be one.
So: We are left with Dragonclyne725 and thunderjolt.
Of these two, which is the most likely to be a wolf?
KP (2491) ~ Yep. Agreed. I like the active camo part. Pretty cool.
So there is a 15% chance that your role just fails. So it is possible that you could have missed DC725 in the Laboratory. (the fact that the Imperial’s helmet stayed on the entire time might have assisted that)
I only listed you since you were in contradiction to DC725 on role placement that one Night. Plus you claimed to be in the Laboratory (where the wolf was). As you see I’ve outlined the remaining 8 players and who the possible enemies are. I feel that the only logical possibilities are DC725 and thunderjolt.
I do want to point out 2 points in your comments to DC725.
- It is not a worthy defense because the helmet NEVER CAME OFF.
- JQ had a 85% chance to RoleBlock and 60% to burn. He could have been RB’d and not shown up as burned.
Shoutouts:
Cardz: What are your thoughts? What do you think about the Night 1 Shenanigans and Diaz Role-Swap?
New info:
Thunderjolt. Thanks for the information. It is interesting that you can use both roles at once. Especially since you said: "Normal Form" and "Speed Form" when you were describing it initially. It is interesting that you can switch between them that quickly.
However, I don't know how revealing a few choice morsels will hurt the town. Unless you've got a Kill hidden I don't think you are in any danger.
Scottistru:
That fits with what we have seen so far. I can accept you using a datapad (which kind of inkled me to a Star Wars flavor instead) within that role. It certainly fits with Absol's mod style and with the game in general.
Jewelquest:
So you were told that your role failed? Or are you just inferring that from the update? This will definitely help seal the margins.
Finally:
I'm glad you guys like my post, and that it makes sense. Make sure that you are double-checking what I say, rather than blindly following the first person to make a big post. If you see a hole that doesn't look like it's been addressed, poke it hard. I want to be completely sure that we've got the last Wolf trapped.
TL;DR?
DC725: Good work. You’ve got a ways to go, however. You've gotta deal with those arguments firmly.
Scum possibilities are way reduced.
Don't end the day yet.
Long post was long, my bad.
Long post is shorter than other long post, but still long.
DragonClyne725
New Member
The only reason I'm trying to stay alive is because we are too far in the game to make a mislynch.
My responses in green and bold:
Absoltrainer
Active Member
Players Remaining: 8
Votes to Lynch: 5
Dragonclyne725: 2 Sandslash7, Scottistru
Votes to Lynch: 5
Dragonclyne725: 2 Sandslash7, Scottistru
Scottistru
New Member
@dragonclyne: I believe that napoleon had 4 more unused pokemon, garchomp being one of them. This is strengthened by the fact that garchomp is nowhere to be found in the update's since night six.
PokeChampofPokeBeach
New Member
Posting the night 1 update, because maybe we can find clues in it as to the truth of the events that have taken place:
That last bit is important, because it confirms the fact that Werewolves travel after their kill. Therefore, the only person who could have been the Werewolf was actually in the Hangar. Unfortunately, this is not worth so much at this stage when there are two primary candidates for the lynch: Dragonclyne and Thunderjolt.
@Thunderjolt:
The update says your eyes started to glow blue and you disappeared. What is the functionality of this?
In any case, looking at the update, it is obvious that Diaz was Lance. His motivation is clear: "The rebels will decide your fate." Note that if he had wanted to take over as the Alpha Werewolf, the rebels would have been his enemy, too. So the fact that he is obviously siding with them I think can mean only one thing: Diaz was not a wolf.
Also, if his role had changed, wouldn't we have been notified of this? For example, gallade had three phases to his role. They were all revealed to us. People who recalled their memory of their past identities also had that section of their role revealed.
So yeah, the role-switch at this point I think is undeniable.
That last bit is important, because it confirms the fact that Werewolves travel after their kill. Therefore, the only person who could have been the Werewolf was actually in the Hangar. Unfortunately, this is not worth so much at this stage when there are two primary candidates for the lynch: Dragonclyne and Thunderjolt.
@Thunderjolt:
The update says your eyes started to glow blue and you disappeared. What is the functionality of this?
In any case, looking at the update, it is obvious that Diaz was Lance. His motivation is clear: "The rebels will decide your fate." Note that if he had wanted to take over as the Alpha Werewolf, the rebels would have been his enemy, too. So the fact that he is obviously siding with them I think can mean only one thing: Diaz was not a wolf.
Also, if his role had changed, wouldn't we have been notified of this? For example, gallade had three phases to his role. They were all revealed to us. People who recalled their memory of their past identities also had that section of their role revealed.
So yeah, the role-switch at this point I think is undeniable.
thunderjolt
New Member
CGG CGT ATC GAC TGA TCG TTA
I didn't get any PM's last night, nor does my role have anything to do with glowing eyes, so my guess would be that AT just used this to add imagery to his updates. As far as disappearing, I would say someone targeted me, and I evaded.
and to SS7--I suppose you are right, it wouldn't hurt to reveal anything at this point in the game, so I shall tell you more. If I am targeted with a killing role, my chances of evasion are 50%. I just figured that if I left this detail to myself, then the wolf(ves) would target me and waste a kill (hopefully). I'm not quite sure (as I have not gotten any PM's about it), but I believe that in one of the nights where there was no wolf kill, they may have targeted me, and I evaded, but I don't have any idea as to if that happened or not.