Pokémon TCG: Sword and Shield—Brilliant Stars

Flipping heads on a plastic coin > 50% of the time

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It is definitely harder to do though. And it is more noticeable when someone tries to manipulate a die.

While manipulating coins requires muscle memory, dice manipulation has strategies. I agree that dice manipulation is more noticable, and for.. certain people.. I ask them to roll the dice from 6 inches above the table (I believe that is the rule), in order to stop any cheating.
 
Time for me to bring out my old quote.

Back in the day I got a plastic Pokemon coin from a Japanesae starter deck and decided to practice with it. After about 2 hours I was able to "rig" it nearly every time. I decided to really test it and flipped it over and over going back and forth from heads to tails. And I was actually doing good flips, not just small ones. I had the coin going up about a foot in the air and spinning about 5 times before it landed.
Long story short, I ended up getting my first wrong one the 155th flip. So yes, I "called it" correct 154 times in a row with an official plastic Pokemon coin. Whether you beleave it or not, it happened to me. And after a few more hours of trying I could probably do it again. But I actually beleave in the spirit of the game so of coarse I would never do it in a real game.

And though I didn't mention it on that post, my hand was as sholder hight each time too. And that I was using the same kind of coin that still come in the starter decks today.

So for discussion purposes, here is a simple test. Let's say you are the person who believes they can flip heads 8 times out of 10. Someone comes up to you and says let's bet on it. Flip a coin, and if you flip heads I'll pay you 20 cents. But if you flip tails, you pay me 80 cents. Would you play that game? How many times?

What if I came to you and said one coin flip, 20 dollars and 80 dollars? Would you play that game?

What if the split was 25 and 75? In theory, if you are correct about your 8 out of 10, you'd play all day, because the odds are in your favor.

Discuss.

While I'm not a gambling man in the very slightest, I will point out that I would have won $3775 if I had taken that 25/75 bet.
 
I feel that Coin Flips are definitely an issue. From my experience, you can get a Pokémon coin to land on Heads almost all of the time, simply by starting the flip with Tails facing up. While, I do not use this technique at tournaments, I know for a fact there are plenty of people who do. I would really like to see card text changed to "roll a die", or at least you should be able to get your opponent to switch randomizers, whether it be from die to coin, or coin to die. There is no reason for them not to switch, until they don't want the result to be a 50/50 chance of success.
 
I feel that Coin Flips are definitely an issue. From my experience, you can get a Pokémon coin to land on Heads almost all of the time, simply by starting the flip with Tails facing up.

It's generalizations like this that cause problems, because people repeat them with no evidence.

I would really like to see card text changed to "roll a die", or at least you should be able to get your opponent to switch randomizers, whether it be from die to coin, or coin to die.

And changes in rules aren't going to happen without evidence.


Scientifically, can you explain what would cause a given coin to land on heads so often, just by starting it on a certain side?
 
I think the obvious answer to that - and the way I rig coin flips, when I'm sitting in my room with one of those useless plastic coins and nothing better to do - is I arrange the number of flips I make by practicing control over the height and rotation of the flip.

With about five flips and sending the coin a good eight inches up you can still manipulate it to come down heads or tails based on just a little extra nudge. Does it make the extra half flip, or not?
 
I never use coins, and have never seen an opponent use a coin, so I've never had to request a change in randomizer, thankfully.

Variables that affect the result of a coin flip: Force (or torque, if you are looking at the angular system rather than the linear- they are both important) initially applied, make (weight distribution mostly) of the coin, the surface the coin lands on, the initial height of the flip, and the interaction the coin has with the air on its flight.

Initial force (and torque) can be controlled without being obvious.
Initial height can be controlled without being obvious.
Weight distribution is consistent while using the same coin.
The landing surface can be controlled easily: playmats.

The air currents cannot be controlled in any practical way without being super, super obvious.

Essentially, in theory it should be possible to, at multiple venues, manipulate a coin to give you non-random, favorable results. This analysis alone is enough to make me distrust coins as randomizers. TPC should distrust them as well.

Dice, while having many of the same variables, are harder to manipulate, especially due to the rounded corner requirement of Pokemon dice. Also, dice manipulation looks pretty different from normal dice rolls.
 
Is the reason that the coin is still legal and used because the Japanese players and TPCi like it? Since 2000 dice have been far and above the preferred method of randomizing (and for damage) by most everyone. Even so much as at many major events, such as worlds as far back as 06, the tournament providers actually had "official" dice with them for flips.

If there's controversy about this obscure and antique method of randomizing, why not do away with it? I do understand that kids like the coins, and that maybe dice are seen as a little more on the gambling side that parents may not approve of, but still.
 
Correction. They cannot force you to use a randomizer other than the coins found in the TPCi theme decks (and likely and IMO, soon to be the dice found in the Plasma box). If you are using a legal tender coin that is not one of the PCD coins, a Judge can determine that the coin is not fair and find some other randomizer for said player to use (usually a die).

Correction to your correction. If you are using a legal tender coin, a judge cannot determine that the coin is not fair. Their is criteria the judge must use to determine unfairness. If the flipper of the coin meets all criteria, the judge cannot independently determine the coin as unfair. If the flipper meets all requirements using legal tender, the only way to disqualify the coin is if his/her opponent disapproves of the use of the coin. The only coin an opponent cannot disapprove of are the official plastic coins. As far as dice go, as long as the meet all requirements of the di rules, they cannot be disqualified by a judge or an opposing player.

Rules are there for everyone, not just players. Judges must follow them too.

As for the plastic coins, in my personal experience, I always call heads on them. I'm not always right, by from my experiences, I've seen enough one sided head flips to believe they favor heads. Just to add more fodder to the fire with no proof, I had a coin once that hid heads 22 times in a row...just to give you an idea of how amazing that is, me and and another friend played for 2 hours and never hit tails. In other words, that's four rounds of tournament play with two different players flipping the same coin. I've never used my opponents coin in a tournament, so its actually like 8 rounds worth of flips with no tails. And we weren't trying to manipulate the flip. We just realized after about 5 flips, we kept hitting heads. Then, every flip after that, we started tallying.

I've also rolled 11 evens in a row once in a single match of a PR with the same di and didn't think it was rigged. I'm not saying its conclusive evidence that the coins favor heads, I'm just saying, I ALWAYS call heads and NEVER regret it, even when its tails...and I win quit a bit of flips. I personally dislike those coins so much, I've quit using them myself. If an opponent pulls it out, I just say "heads."
 
I really don't like people using coins, usually it doesn't spin the three times in the air, thing whatever. I really like it when people use the d6s especially the well rounded ones, you guys know what I'm talking about.

Penalty guide or not I'm sure there's people out there that "practice" flipping coins.
 
Correction to your correction. If you are using a legal tender coin, a judge cannot determine that the coin is not fair. Their is criteria the judge must use to determine unfairness. If the flipper of the coin meets all criteria, the judge cannot independently determine the coin as unfair. If the flipper meets all requirements using legal tender, the only way to disqualify the coin is if his/her opponent disapproves of the use of the coin.
Correction to your correction. If the coin (not the flipper) meets all criteria, the judge cannot independently determine the coin as unfair. The flipper does not matter. The judge is looking at the coin.
 
I've noticed more people flipping coins. Though it's likely I wasn't paying attention before.

Can't attest to the fact it yields more heads though, my recent experience included, no matter how much I willed my flips for the latter half of last week. Yup, four tails in a row for two attacks of Servine's Wring Out happens 6% of the time.

Oh well.
 
Scientifically, can you explain what would cause a given coin to land on heads so often, just by starting it on a certain side?

I can do it, and I’ll do it below. It’s not the side that you’re starting on that’s important. It’s the fact that you’re starting on the same side and you’re controlling the power of your flip.

Let me start off this explanation by pointing out that there are coin-flipping machines out there that can flip a coin with a statistically significant biased outcome. Why is that possible? Think about physics for a second. You’re flipping a coin and it lands heads. Theoretically, if you replicated the exact conditions of your flip—the exact coin positioned in the exact same way, you’re using the exact same power in your thumb as you release the coin, the temperature and currents in the room are exactly the same, the density of the air is exactly the same, etc.—you would land heads again. That’s just how the laws of physics work.

Think of a basketball player who’s shooting a free throw. I’ll take myself as an example. When I was 10 years old, I was a below 50% free throw shooter. I basically chucked the ball in the direction of the basket and hoped that it would go in. I started working on my free throw shooting when I joined my middle school basketball team. By the time I was playing varsity in high school, I was an 85% free throw shooter. How was I able to improve my free throw shooting so drastically? Well, I had a coach who taught me proper shooting mechanics and emphasized that I do the exact same motion whenever I’m shooting a free throw. Soon, I was able to learn that if I bend my elbow the same way, bend my knees the same way, curl my wrists the same way, and released the ball at the same point, I would make the free throw. In other words, I found one set of precise mechanics that leads to a high percentage chance of making a free throw.

We can apply the basketball analogy to flipping plastic Pokemon coins. If you were not trying to manipulate a coin flip, you would just toss the coin in the air without thinking about the power and direction of your toss and get pretty close to a fair flip. However, if you think about the factors involved with flipping a coin, you can try to find a set of precise mechanics that leads to a high percentage of flipping heads—just like you can do in basketball with a free throw. Let’s think about the factors involved with flipping a coin:
  • Air pressure, wind currents, room temperature, density of dust particles in the air, etc. – These are factors that are out of your control when playing Pokemon. Most of the time, however, these factors have such a negligible effect on the result of a coin flip that it doesn’t prevent you from successfully manipulating the odds of a coin flip. In other words, it’s not worth it and it’s also not feasible to try to control these factors.
  • The power of the flip and the number of rotations – If you toss a coin with the same power, in the same direction, with the same release point, and at the same height, it will rotate exactly the same number of times before it hits the table. For most people, this makes intuitive sense. The scientific reason for this is Newton’s second law of motion. It says that if you exert the same force on the same object, everything else being the same, it will always have the same acceleration! Force equals mass times acceleration. If you are able to learn to control the power, direction, release point, and height of the flip, then you can control the number of rotations the flip takes and manipulate the odds of getting heads!
  • The surface upon which the coin lands – When a coin lands on a wooden or hard plastic table, the table will exert a force on the coin causing the coin to bounce. This is an application of Newton’s third law of motion that I will leave for the user to Google for the sake of brevity. The force that the wooden table exerts on the coin is difficult (if not impossible) for a human to control. What humans can control, however, is the magnitude of the force that the landing surface exerts on the coin as the coin “bounces” off the table. How do you control this factor? By using a playmat. Playmats are softer surfaces than tables. Using a playmat, it is possible for you to completely prevent the coin from bouncing as it hits the table. This way, you can more easily manipulate the odds of your coin flip without having the bouncy table mess up the number of rotations that a coin takes.
Using the insights above, some players have learned how to manipulate a coin flip by controlling the number of rotations the coin flips in the air and the extent of the bounce that the coin takes after it hits the table. It is possible for someone to learn how to flip a coin with exactly 3 rotations while having the coin reach shoulder height at its peak. Obviously, a human can't get the heads rate up to 100%, but a human can certainly bias the odds of flipping heads through practice.

Can't attest to the fact it yields more heads though, my recent experience included, no matter how much I willed my flips for the latter half of last week.

You can’t will yourself to get more heads. Trying to will yourself to get more heads crosses over the line of reason into pseudo-science.

You have to learn how to manipulate a coin flip. Sit down for an hour and just start flipping Pokemon coins. Try to use the same motion every time. Try to notice the subtle differences in your muscle movement when you’re flipping heads versus when you’re flipping tails. Try to get the perfect “3 rotation, shoulder height” flip. Remember, if you’re using exactly the same amount of force, releasing at the exact same height, and tossing in the exact same direction, you’ll get the same result in theory. Certain people naturally have better muscle memory and better control over their movements, but it’s very easy for anyone and everyone to manipulate the odds of a flip of a Pokemon coin.

That’s the reason why coins need to be banned from Pokemon if the people at TPCi give even a sliver of a damn about the fairness of the game we all love.
 
^^ I know what you mean, and yes I did try practice flips before those events when selecting a coin to use. When I say I willed it, it was trying to recreate the same flip movement over and over again using the techniques you describe. I didn't practice it for an hour, so maybe I haven't developed the repeatable technique at all. What I thought worked well at home failed day after day at the tournaments at one point or another. You can't play 7+ matches in a day and not have a crucial failure.

At the very least, the motion is a lot less precise than shooting free throws, which is why I can't believe anything more than 55% is generally possible. With free throws, you are invoking many more muscles to form a repeatable movement. A single muscle in your thumb, or even adding in your shoulder, is harder to precisely control. Furthermore, the basketball backboard and rim help the ball fall into the basket. There is no such assistance when flipping a coin. In fact, very often landing on my playmat, even flat, the coin would flip 180 degrees! Thats why I would aim to have it land on my active Pokemon card, because it bounced less. But even then, if it didn't land flat, hitting an edge caused more variability. There is no "close" when flipping a coin like there is in shooting a basket is what I'm trying to say.

You know what I learned overall? Great players don't choose to play flippy decks. I had Ness critiquing my deck choice and strategy all week, and I eventually realized that whatever advantage I gained by getting heads when needed was eventually negated by flipping double tails on a crucial turn. Several times I even got double tails in two turns, which theoretically happens 6% of the time. I lose the game after that. Great players choose decks that don't put themselves in these situations.

So my personal takeaway from playing a flippy deck for a week is that a match between two great players with great decks is much more than a single coin flip or dice roll. My general sentiment is I'm not going to lose sleep if my opponent has practiced coin flips and attempts to make it greater than 50% heads. Hammertime players flip plenty of tails. The new Hypnotoxic Beam card will flip plenty of tails for sleep. I believe for great players to put these cards in their deck, to make them worth the slots, that they're content with a 50% net result for the overall deck strategy....meaning, they don't need to try to boost that above 50% to have a consistently winning deck.

(It's worth repeating that this is my personal opinion, and I'm sure someone is going to disagree, so feel free to post and say so just please acknowledge it is an opinion and personal choice for an individual player's feeling about the use of coins. I don't believe there is a right or wrong here, just how much individuals care about details of certain issues.)
 
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At the very least, the motion is a lot less precise than shooting free throws, which is why I can't believe anything more than 55% is generally possible.

They say that seeing is believing, so I can understand why it’s hard for you to believe that anything more than 55% is possible. I’ve personally been able to get to 58% in the past (about 880/1500) on an EX Dragons Salamence coin, but you didn’t see me do it. That was after a week of practicing about half an hour a day, after I heard that some of the Japanese players practice flipping coins.

However, even if the rate is 55%, it is unfair. It really sounds like you’re arguing that “if it’s just a 5% difference, then Pokemon should just not care about it.” That’s a terrible attitude to take when talking about the fairness of the game. A 5% increase in the odds of getting heads is huge considering that some games literally come down to a Crushing Hammer or Super Scoop Up flip. I certainly think that the fairness of the game is more important than the convenience of the status quo.

With free throws, you are invoking many more muscles to form a repeatable movement. A single muscle in your thumb, or even adding in your shoulder, is harder to precisely control. Furthermore, the basketball backboard and rim help the ball fall into the basket.

I never said (or implied) that you can get a coin flip up to 85% heads. I believe that 85% is almost impossible to do. I drew the analogy to show that similar to how someone can improve their free throw shooting through practice, someone can improve their coin manipulation through practice as well.

There is no such assistance when flipping a coin. In fact, very often landing on my playmat, even flat, the coin would flip 180 degrees!

You’re probably using a wooden or hard plastic table. Use a playmat on top of one of those collapsible plastic tables and you’ll see the difference. Those plastic tables used at Nationals are good (and they even help you by putting a tablecloth over it!), while the wooden tables we had at Worlds this year were bad (since coins bounce too much off of wood, even with the tablecloth).

Thats why I would aim to have it land on my active Pokemon card, because it bounced less. But even then, if it didn't land flat, hitting an edge caused more variability. There is no "close" when flipping a coin like there is in shooting a basket is what I'm trying to say.

You’re right. There’s less room for error when flipping a coin compared to shooting a basketball. That’s why you need to practice more.

You know what I learned overall? Great players don't choose to play flippy decks.

First of all, this statement is just incorrect. It’s flat out wrong. Let me explain why a little later.

Second of all, even if great players don’t play flippy decks, it doesn’t mean that it’s okay for Pokemon to turn a blind eye from a very obvious problem with coins.

But let me return to your comment that “great players don’t choose to play flippy decks.” Let me try to explain to you why this statement is flat-out factually inaccurate. Let’s take the example of Ryan Sabelhaus. Ryan won Spring Regionals last year, made Worlds, and won his second Regionals in a row this autumn with Hammertime. Ryan’s deck played 4 Crushing Hammer, and the main strategy of his deck was to use a flippy card. Ryan chose to play a flippy deck to counter a metagame that had a high concentration of Rayeels (remove their Fire Energies to win the game) and Fighting decks (that don’t run any energy recovery or acceleration). Certainly, you’d agree that Ryan is a great player, right? After all, you don’t win 2 300-ish player Regionals in a row unless you’re pretty great. Great players play flippy decks too.

There are two other people that won this past Fall Regionals with Rayquaza/Eelektrik, Ross Cawthon and Ty Smith. Both of these players played a Victory Star Victini in their deck. Victini exemplifies the importance of flippy cards in the format. If it wasn’t for the 75% chance to paralyze for a turn using Tynamo’s Thunder Wave or Raikou EX’s Thunder Fang, Rayquaza/Eelektrik decks could not survive against fast Darkrai decks. Having spoken with Ross about his deck, I know for a fact that Ross used a flippy attack in almost every single game he played that day. In fact, part of his strategy was to use Victini to stall. Certainly, you’d agree that Ty and Ross (who both made Worlds last year) are great players, right? Great players play flippy decks too.

I had Ness critiquing my deck choice and strategy all week, and I eventually realized that whatever advantage I gained by getting heads when needed was eventually negated by flipping double tails on a crucial turn.

Each format is different. In another format, flippy cards play much more of a difference. Remember the Pokemon Reversal format for Nationals/Worlds 2 seasons ago? That was a pretty flippy format where the unfairness of using coins could have potentially had a very large impact.

I’m not sure which deck Jason was specifically referring to, but there isn’t a flippy deck right now that I would consider Tier 1. Hammertime has lost a lot of steam as Blastoise/Keldeo isn’t really hurt by Hammers. Victini techs in Eels (I think this is the deck you’re probably referring to because you mentioned flipping double tails) is a lot weaker now than it was in the last format as many decks play either a high count of Switch of at least 1 Keldeo EX to get out of status lock.

Sure, flippy decks may not be the best play in this format, but to pretend that there isn’t a format where flippy decks are Tier 1 or that great players don’t play flippy decks is absurd.

Several times I even got double tails in two turns, which theoretically happens 6% of the time. I lose the game after that. Great players choose decks that don't put themselves in these situations.

Nope, great players choose decks that put themselves in these situations too.

I believe for great players to put these cards in their deck, to make them worth the slots, that they're content with a 50% net result for the overall deck strategy....meaning, they don't need to try to boost that above 50% to have a consistently winning deck.

Once again, I think you’re holding a very irresponsible attitude about the fairness of the game. Sure, great players don’t need to manipulate coin flips. No-one’s denying that. The problem is that it is so easy to manipulate the odds of a coin flip that it makes flipping a coin to randomize unfair. It’s not illegal, but it’s unfair. (I trust that you understand that there can be rules/laws that are legal but unfair.)

(It's worth repeating that this is my personal opinion, and I'm sure someone is going to disagree, so feel free to post and say so just please acknowledge it is an opinion and personal choice for an individual player's feeling about the use of coins. I don't believe there is a right or wrong here, just how much individuals care about details of certain issues.)

This sounds a lot like you’re taking a “I’m just going to close my eyes and pretend the problem doesn’t exist” type of attitude. You may be indifferent to the ease of manipulation of a Pokemon coin, but it doesn’t mean that the problem doesn’t exist. Just because you don’t care that the rules of the game allow for the unfair manipulation of randomization, it doesn’t mean that there isn’t a right or wrong side to the debate.

You have the right to mislabel an idea contrary to fact as “opinion,” but your “opinion” would be wrong. (For example, people are allowed to hold the “opinion” that dinosaurs never existed or that the sun revolves around the Earth, etc. Their “opinions” would be wrong because those “opinions” are just falsehoods mislabeled as “opinions” to make those individuals more comfortable with believing something contrary to fact.)

---------- Post added 01/10/2013 at 05:53 PM ----------

At the very least, the motion is a lot less precise than shooting free throws, which is why I can't believe anything more than 55% is generally possible.

Proof that 68% is possible. Statistically significant with p-values under 0.05.
 
I appreciate the detailed reply, even though you pretty much disagreed with everything I said. :)

Indeed, I'm personally not going to worry about the difference between 50% and 58% (practical maximum based on your evidence). I don't believe that 8% makes a significant difference in the scope of of a game, is what I was trying to express. Yes a positive coin flip result can turn a game around, but I don't think great players choose a deck that counts on that additional 8% to win them the day.

Regarding flippy decks, maybe I'm in the wrong here too, but I don't consider Hammertime part of that. Crushing Hammer is an auxiliary card that helps disrupt the opponent; the deck can still succeed hitting tails. It's much harder, and near impossible against Landorus EX, but still possible to set up Darkrais and start putting 120 damage on their board. Versus a deck which has a flippy attack like mine did last week (based on Servine's Wring Out attack), where 75%+ heads (with Victini) is required for success. The paralyze attacks of Tynamo and Raikou EX aren't the primary strategy of those decks either. It's nice to use when needed, like the sleeping babies from Nationals 2011, but not something great players choose to based their success on is what I'm trying to say, if there are other options available.


So let's take this discussion in a new way: if a player believed they have 58% odds of heads instead of 50%, would that influence their card choice? Think Super Scoop Up in Keldeo/Blastoise decks.




 
I don't believe that 8% makes a significant difference in the scope of a game, is what I was trying to express.

This is one of those “it’s true even if you don’t want to think it’s true” type of deals. An 8% difference in odds on a coin flip (let’s say, with a Hammertime) deck is very likely to affect at least the outcome of one game over the course of a tournament like Regionals.

Regarding flippy decks, maybe I'm in the wrong here too, but I don't consider Hammertime part of that. Crushing Hammer is an auxiliary card that helps disrupt the opponent; the deck can still succeed hitting tails.

My example referenced Fall Regionals, which happened in the last format. I don’t think Hammertime succeeds in the last format without at least 40% heads on Crushing Hammers. If you look at the recorded finals match between Ryan and Gino, you’ll see how important it is for the Hammertime player to deny Fighting-type decks with Fighting Energy. Without at least 40% heads on Crushing Hammers, it becomes almost impossible to prevent Terrakion from Land Crushing every turn. Also, against Rayeels, Hammertime has to remove the Fire Energies attached to Rayquaza EX or else it has a losing matchup. I played Rayeels a lot during Battle Roads and also played it during Fall Regionals. A significant minority of games came down to one Crushing Hammer flip. Games will come down to whether the Hammertime player can remove my Fire Energy to prevent me from getting a Dragon Burst OHKO.

So let's take this discussion in a new way: if a player believed they have 58% odds of heads instead of 50%, would that influence their card choice? Think Super Scoop Up in Keldeo/Blastoise decks.

If I knew I had a 58% of heads instead of 50%, my deck choice for Winter Regionals will be Darkrai/Landorus/Hammers. Easily. Because it’s not, I’m most likely going to play something else.

Would I play Super Scoop Up in Blastoise/Keldeo if I could flip heads 4/7 of the time instead of 1/2? Probably not. Blastoise/Keldeo needs to get a consistent T2/T3 Blastoise. Super Scoop Up lowers that consistency.

I think you’re trying to dance around the fact that it is unfair for someone to manipulate a coin to have 58% odds of getting heads (or 55% like you originally said, or 68% like the article I linked above demonstrated was possible with “simple instructions about how to manipulate the toss of a coin and only a few minutes to practice this technique”). I think that you’re proposing to “take this discussion in a new way” because you want to avoid dealing with the uncomfortable truth that coins are easily manipulated and that a small minority of Pokemon players does attempt to manipulate the result of coin flips.

Before we move in a new direction with this topic, I’d like to ask:
  • Do you agree that it’s unfair for someone to flip 58% heads when the rules of the game clearly call for randomization that is 50/50?
  • If you don’t find it unfair, can you explain why you think manipulating the odds of a coin flip is not unfair?
  • If you do find it unfair, can you explain why you think it’s okay for someone to gain an unfair advantage by manipulating what is supposed to be a random outcome?
 
I think it is both fair and unfair. Fair because either player has the option of manipulating the flip, but unfair due to rule breaking.
 
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