Here's a fun topic; CURSEgar

[prodigal_fanboy]

As much as that is true, you can never know if you'll draw into Cyrus.

Or even start with a Luxray.

As much as it is nice to get both of them, the chances of it happening are rather low and even though it will happen, you can't be certain it will happen every time you play Gengar.

Once you Bebe's you could suddenly have a dead hand too, and breaking the Cyrus chain can be very annoying.

Riffle raffle rofl. If you run 2 Luxray and 4 Call Energy, the odds of you having one of those in hand to produce the T1 Luxray is 60% for just your seven card hand. When you factor in the draw for start of turn, it increases (but this also assumes you have a basic + Call Energy, but factoring mulligan combinations in such encompassing scenarios is a lot of extra math with a smaller effect on things). The 65 percent statistic also ignores the potential to Roseanne's and retreat to a Luxray T1 or whatever floats your boat -- it's just your odds of having it go first. The 65% also neglects the odds of prizing a Luxray and being able to Azelf for it, which again I assume is negligible enough to be ignored.

If you run 2 Luxray X and 2 Bebe's, you have a ~35% chance of accessing Luxray X on your second turn (first trainer turn) under spiritomb lock.

.6 * .35 = .21

So you have about a 20-25% chance of T2 Bright Look if the Luxchomp player goes first, assuming the Cursegar player gets a Spiritomb/Gastly (assuming Pitch-Dark).

Odds increase if the Gengar player whiffs on the 'Tomb/does not use Pitch-Dark, if the Luxchomp player goes second (the Cyrus --> Bebe's potential OR the Roseanne's --> Luxray GL, these are mutually exclusive odds. the math gets complicated here).

In other words, you CAN predict the odds, but never know for certain in a game. That is all.

Here's a link to a handy calculator for those of you who don't know the formula:
http://stattrek.com/Tables/Hypergeometric.aspx

 

[kamz]

can u explain how cursegar does so well

 

[Aperson]

it takes 6 prizes in under 40 minutes

 

[gallade]

As much as that is true, you can never know if you'll draw into Cyrus.

Or even start with a Luxray.

With that logic you might not start with a spritomb.


Or even have a gastly.