SLOW DECK
New Member
So, combined, it is ~3% of a truly, lonely HOPPIP start
Ryan,
Your math is involved but off. The hypegeometric distribution is what we are working with. HYPGEODIST(# Basic, Hand of 7, 16 Basic in Deck, 60 card Deck)
# Basics/Prob/Prob(1 or greater)
0 - 9.92% / 0.00%
1 - 29.24% / 32.47%
2 - 33.74% / 37.46%
3 - 19.68% / 21.85%
4 - 6.24% / 6.93%
5 - 1.07% / 1.19%
6 - 0.09% / 0.10%
7 - 0.00% / 0.00%
Thus even with 16 basics, we have 32.47% of starting with only one pokemon. To get to the hoppip start, we just take 4/16ths of that probability since there are 4 hoppips out of 16 basics. Thus the probability of flipping over a solo hopip is 8.12%, if you includ the unown Q, you get 10.15%. If you go first and draw a card, you have 28.3% chance of getting a basic on your top deck, or 71.7% chance of no help.
Probability of starting with 30 HP Donk Me poke and going 2nd is 10.15%
Probability of starting with 30 HP Donk Me poke and going 1st is 7.27% (with the 8th card being a pokemon)
Life is risk, thus I still think we live with these "could be donked" odds all the time, this needs to be compounded with a deck that can donk on T1 and has the cards to do it.
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