Just for fun LOL! I ran a simulated tournament using TMS.
7 rounds with 128 entrants.
BUT HERES THE THING I ranked every player before entry and ran a ZERO LUCK tournament THE STRONGEST PLAYER
ALWAYS wins.
Code:
Rankings (Round7)
Rank Player Score Wins Losses Ties TieBrk
1 A A1 21 7 0 0 75.51%
2 A A3 18 6 1 0 73.469%
2 A A2 18 6 1 0 73.469%
2 B B13 18 6 1 0 71.429%
2 A A4 18 6 1 0 67.347%
2 A A7 18 6 1 0 65.306%
2 A A6 18 6 1 0 63.265%
2 A A8 18 6 1 0 61.224%
2 A A5 18 6 1 0 59.184%
10 B B11 15 5 2 0 67.347%
10 C C17 15 5 2 0 65.306%
10 C C20 15 5 2 0 65.306%
10 B B10 15 5 2 0 63.265%
10 B B14 15 5 2 0 63.265%
10 B B15 15 5 2 0 61.224%
10 C C21 15 5 2 0 61.224%
10 C C24 15 5 2 0 61.224%
10 D D36 15 5 2 0 61.224%
10 C C35 15 5 2 0 59.184%
10 D D42 15 5 2 0 59.184%
10 C C23 15 5 2 0 57.143%
10 C C25 15 5 2 0 55.102%
10 D D41 15 5 2 0 55.102%
10 C C30 15 5 2 0 55.102%
10 C C27 15 5 2 0 55.102%
10 B B16 15 5 2 0 53.061%
10 D D39 15 5 2 0 53.061%
10 D D45 15 5 2 0 44.898%
29 B B9 12 4 3 0 67.347%
29 D D40 12 4 3 0 65.306%
29 D D46 12 4 3 0 63.265%
29 C C32 12 4 3 0 61.224%
The following players miss the cut.....
29 D D49 12 4 3 0 61.224%
29 C C33 12 4 3 0 61.224%
29 C C18 12 4 3 0 59.184%
29 C C22 12 4 3 0 59.184%
29 E E65 12 4 3 0 59.184%
29 C C26 12 4 3 0 57.143%
29 D D44 12 4 3 0 57.143%
29 E E68 12 4 3 0 57.143%
29 B B12 12 4 3 0 55.102%
29 C C31 12 4 3 0 55.102%
29 D D48 12 4 3 0 55.102%
29 D D37 12 4 3 0 53.061%
29 D D63 12 4 3 0 53.061%
29 E E71 12 4 3 0 53.061%
29 C C34 12 4 3 0 53.061%
29 E E77 12 4 3 0 53.061%
29 D D56 12 4 3 0 53.061%
29 D D51 12 4 3 0 51.02%
29 D D54 12 4 3 0 51.02%
29 D D57 12 4 3 0 51.02%
29 E E69 12 4 3 0 51.02%
29 D D60 12 4 3 0 51.02%
29 C C29 12 4 3 0 48.98%
29 E E73 12 4 3 0 48.98%
29 E E72 12 4 3 0 48.98%
29 C C19 12 4 3 0 46.939%
29 D D47 12 4 3 0 46.939%
29 D D62 12 4 3 0 44.898%
29 E E88 12 4 3 0 44.898%
29 E E90 12 4 3 0 44.898%
29 E E106 12 4 3 0 44.898%
29 E E84 12 4 3 0 44.898%
65 C C28 9 3 4 0 59.184%
65 D D58 9 3 4 0 59.184%
65 D D38 9 3 4 0 57.143%
65 E E67 9 3 4 0 57.143%
65 E E78 9 3 4 0 55.102%
65 E E102 9 3 4 0 55.102%
65 D D50 9 3 4 0 53.061%
65 D D55 9 3 4 0 51.02%
65 D D52 9 3 4 0 51.02%
65 E E74 9 3 4 0 51.02%
65 E E80 9 3 4 0 51.02%
65 E E94 9 3 4 0 51.02%
65 D D43 9 3 4 0 48.98%
65 E E89 9 3 4 0 46.939%
65 E E66 9 3 4 0 46.939%
65 E E110 9 3 4 0 46.939%
65 E E91 9 3 4 0 46.939%
65 D D53 9 3 4 0 44.898%
65 D D64 9 3 4 0 44.898%
65 E E86 9 3 4 0 44.898%
65 E E95 9 3 4 0 44.898%
65 E E103 9 3 4 0 44.898%
65 E E70 9 3 4 0 42.857%
65 E E81 9 3 4 0 42.857%
65 E E83 9 3 4 0 42.857%
65 E E96 9 3 4 0 42.857%
65 E E75 9 3 4 0 40.816%
65 D D59 9 3 4 0 40.816%
65 E E79 9 3 4 0 40.816%
65 E E97 9 3 4 0 38.776%
65 E E108 9 3 4 0 36.735%
65 E E99 9 3 4 0 34.694%
65 E E109 9 3 4 0 34.694%
65 E E114 9 3 4 0 32.653%
99 E E76 6 2 5 0 48.98%
99 E E113 6 2 5 0 48.98%
99 D D61 6 2 5 0 46.939%
99 E E82 6 2 5 0 44.898%
99 E E85 6 2 5 0 44.898%
99 E E93 6 2 5 0 44.898%
99 E E107 6 2 5 0 44.898%
99 E E112 6 2 5 0 42.857%
99 E E92 6 2 5 0 40.816%
99 E E101 6 2 5 0 40.816%
99 E E100 6 2 5 0 40.816%
99 E E104 6 2 5 0 40.816%
99 E E98 6 2 5 0 38.776%
99 E E87 6 2 5 0 38.776%
99 E E116 6 2 5 0 36.735%
99 E E115 6 2 5 0 36.735%
99 E E122 6 2 5 0 34.694%
99 E E105 6 2 5 0 34.694%
99 E E111 6 2 5 0 34.694%
99 E E117 6 2 5 0 32.653%
99 E E120 6 2 5 0 32.653%
99 E E124 6 2 5 0 28.571%
99 E E125 6 2 5 0 26.531%
122 E E119 3 1 6 0 40.816%
122 E E121 3 1 6 0 38.776%
122 E E118 3 1 6 0 34.694%
122 E E127 3 1 6 0 34.694%
122 E E123 3 1 6 0 34.694%
122 E E126 3 1 6 0 28.571%
128 E E128 0 0 7 0 38.776%
Notice that even in this tournament where the strongest player ALWAYS wins.
The following players did not make the TOP32 cut.
12th
18th
19th
22nd
26th
28th
29th
31st
The lowest rated player who made the cut was ranked 46th.
THE only luck in this tournament is in the round pairings.
=========================================
To make it statistically valid I ought to run several simulations but even with just this one you can clearly see that the best players don't always make the cut. And this is a tournament where the strongest player in a match always wins. No flips, No deck failures, no bad draw, perfect play by both players, no problems with a scrub playing adeck that is your only weakness. the only rule was that the strongest plaer wins.
This demonstrates that running 2/3 in the swiss does not fix players getting 'screwed'!
Sorry Joner and everyone else who wants to increase the amount of time spent in the swiss.
anyone who wants the player database I set up and the pre-registration file is welcome to run their own simulation. just email me and I'll send you a copy.